Defense Wins Championships

The divisional round of last weekends NFL playoff's presented several great games. The best game was probably the San Fransisco 49ers versus the New Orleans Saints. The 49ers ended up winning at the end of a fourth quarter filled with lead changes. It could be argued that this game provided more support for the old mantra of defense wins championships than any other game this year.

Each of the teams is very unbalanced in their skillset this year. The 49ers were 26th in the league in offensive yds per game at 310.9. That is not a very good. They still managed to score points because their great defense often gave them good field position.  Speaking of that defense, the 49ers were 4th in the league in defensive yds per game at 308.9 yds per game. They were lead by a super talented defensive line anchored by Justin Smith and rookie phenom Aldon Smith (no relation, but it would be a great story if there was).

The opposite team, the Saints, were 24th in the league in defensive yds per game at 368.4. That is also not very good. However, their offense was very prolific. Lead by All-Pro Drew Brees, the Saints gained 467.1 yds per game. This was best in the whole league. Basically, the divisional round game was a battle of a great defense (49ers) versus a great offense (Saints) and the defense won.

What does this all mean for the rest of the league? Should teams focus on defensive players more and stop trying to create an unstoppable scoring threat? I would argue no. The 49ers defense is great and it helped them win, but they still gave up 32 points and 462 yds passing to the Saints. The 49ers offense and especially the Saints complete lack of covering Vernon Davis, were just as responsible for teh win. Instead of writing this one off as defense wins, I think that it shows that when two teams match up their biggest strengths versus their biggest weakness you get a really balanced game. We should view it as a sign that teams can find success by maximizing their ability to score points or their ability to prevent that.

Opposing Perspective: Why the Mariners Traded Pineda

"Who do I play for?"

I've always enjoyed reading USA Today while I eat lunch, and among my favorite pieces is the weekly arguments they stage between high profile members of the conservative and liberal political establishments.  No matter their points, the bickering continues without fail thanks to the fact that it cannot be proven that one side's view is better than the other.

In much the same way, the Michael Pineda trade has no right answer right now.  In terms of talent, it is more or less a straight wash: the Mariners got the best young player the Yankees have and a solid starting pitcher prospect for the (arguably) best young player the Mariners have and a solid starting pitcher prospect.  The question here cannot really be solved, but all in all people seem pretty beat up about this.  Understandable, I know, as Pineda was a bright spot last season and everybody likes dreaming about what young guys could become (remember Jeremy Reed?  Damn him).

One of the Few Good Things From Last Year Gone!

The Mariners 2011 season was not great. The team lost 95 games and had one of the worst offenses in the DH era. In fact looking at the Mariners offensive number you would think they sent out a lineup of all Yuniesky Betancourt, which they didnt. One major bright spot from last season was the Mariners starting pitchers. Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, Doug Fister, Jason Vargas and Erik Bedard did a great job stopping opposing teams from scoring. During the season last year the M's traded Bedard and Fister away. Now the Mariners have traded Michael Pineda to the Yankees for Jesus Montero. They have gotten ride of yet another one of the good things from last season; there arent many yet. My intial reaction to this trade is it sucks.

Michael Pineda was a Major league All-star caliber talent. He finished his rookie season with 173 K in 171 IP and an ERA of 3.73. That is really good for a 22 year old rookie. Admittedly young pitcher have tons of injury risk, and Pineda had some injuries in the minors. So, he might get hurt and not turn into an Ace, but I think more likely he continues to progress and becomes a dominate force in the AL.

Jesus Montero is a AAA power hitter with tons of upside at the plate who currently plays catcher. However, he isnt expected to play catcher much longer. His defense has been compared to Mike Piazza or worse. For those of you that dont remember, Mike Piazza was a terrible defensive catcher. Montero is most likely going to end up at 1B or DH. The Mariners already have Mike Carp and Justin Smoak at 1B and DH. They dont need another prospect at 1B and DH.

Also, the Mariners had a chance at Montero two years ago and passed in favor of Smoak. The Yankees offered Montero for Cliff Lee. That makes me think that they graded Smoak higher than Montero. Why get Montero now, when you still have Smoak, who could turn into a major league talent?

Basically rating this trade boils down to if you think a high upside prospect hitter is better than a high upside major league ready starting pitcher. I dont think that it does. I would rather have a dominate pitcher holding down the rotation with Felix than the potential for a good 1B/DH.

2011 Season Review: These Aren't Your Daddy's Seahawks

Ohh dream weaver..I believe you can get me through the night..

As we all know, low expectations are the norm for Seattle sports in general. They were even more so for the 2011 Seahawks who were coming into a post-lockout shortened season with one of the largest roster churns in NFL history that contained a plethora of young inexperienced players. Some writers lamented that this could be a parallel season to the 1992 Seahawks who had just lost longtime franchise quarterback Dave Krieg and head coach Chuck Knox (hmm.. that sounds especially relevant). They ended up scoring an average of 8.8 points per game and finished with a record of 2-14.

Well, allow me to make the obligatory lame reference to the title of this post by insisting that these aren’t your daddy’s 1992 Seahawks. Despite starting 2-6, the team this year has managed to win 5 of the last 8 games. Until Week 16's disappointing loss, they were legitimate contenders for the playoffs. In fact, if it weren’t for a phantom block-in-the-back penalty at Cleveland, a blown coverage on 3rd-19 against the Redskins, and a botched run play on 3rd-goal during week 16, they would likely be in the playoffs again. But I digress. Success for a team in the stages of rebuilding shouldn’t be judged in terms of wins and losses anyhow. They should be evaluated with respect to level of player development and cementing of key foundations. By this more appropiate standard, this season’s Seahawks have unquestionably made immense progress. The fact that our defense finished within the top 10 of any meaningful category on defense is just icing on the cake.

Under the design of Pete Carroll, the 2011 Seahawks have created an identity as a hard-hitting gritty defense and a smashmouth offense that wants to run the ball down opponents throats. Unlike last season where when they lost it was on average by 21 points, this team has shown that they can go toe-to-toe with almost any other team and give them a run for their money. They finished with the same 7-9 record as last season but you would have to have the football IQ of uh, well, somebody that doesn’t understand football not to see the meaningful improvement.

Naturally, this team still has some holes to address –the long term QB most critically–and aren’t near serious playoff contention yet. But things are definitely going to plan so far. Don’t forget your raybans because the future looks pretty bright. My notes and reaction to the season below:


The Good – Areas to build on.

• Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are the real deal and could be developing to become one of the best safety tandems in the entire NFL. It’s true that with only 2 interceptions ET hasn’t had the type break out season we anticipated. As per his first pro bowl selection, that’s doesn’t mean he hasn’t been hugely impactful. He’s been very active at the line of scrimmage with safety blitzes which have resulted in several tackles for loss. In my view, Kam is the backbone of the beastly defensive identity (see here and here for a brief visual summary). For instance, I recall from MNF against the Rams when Lance Kendricks and Austin Pettis appeared to shy away from making plays on the ball when they were in Kam’s zone of coverage, wary of the wood he would lay on them. Moreover, for a big strong safety he has been great in coverage making plays on the ball.

• We have a promising secondary overall which includes Brandon Browner, Richard Sherman, and Walter Thurmond III. Browner was a real gem in the rough considering Schneider recruited him from the Canadian Football League and he ended up being a first alternate to the probowl this year. Other than being one of the most penalized players in the league, he’s a high risk – high reward type of corner. He had a lot of plays that were game winners (“Screw you and your Houdini like catches, Victor Cruz! I’m taking this one to the house!”) and ones that were game losers (whoopsy-daisy blown coverage on 3rd-19 against the Redskins and against Michael Crabtree in week 16). This was his first season –with hardly any training camp– in the NFL so I think there’s upside with him in terms of cutting down on penalties and improving his tendency to surrender big plays at critical times. Fifth round pick Richard Sherman certainly cemented his starter job at left corner and did a better job shutting down opposing receivers, in my opinion. The graph below shows that after Sherman became our starting left corner opposing QBs (that weren’t Tony Romo) didn’t really post above average passer ratings. Of course, I’m not suggesting Sherman is exclusively responsible for that decline, just food for thought.



• The quality of receiver depth is easily the best in the division (maybe conference) and we have established pro bowl talent in Sidney Rice. Golden Tate improved immensely –he had 0 drops all season!– and we finally saw some of that flashy athleticism he displayed at Notre Dame. Obomanu and Deon Butler are dependable. More recently, Ricardo Lockette impressed with his limited playtime. The Rams front office would have ritualistically sacrificed a small child to add one of these guys to their dearth of receiving talent that plagued Sam Bradford this season. Lastly, don’t fret yet about Mike William’s disappointing season and start trashing his comeback story. BMW is a physical receiver that relies on accurate QBs to throw the ball into small windows where he can out-wrestle defensive backs – which is why he was so successful with Hasselbeck. QBs like T-Jack thrive with shifty receivers who can effectively separate. Let’s first see what changes at QB this next season and/or if T-Jack can get develop better synergy with him that comes after a full off-season.

• Doug Baldwin gets his own bullet point.

• The steady o-line improvement and success of the Marshawn Lynch ‘Beef Moe’ run game has a lot to do with the work Tom Cable has done here. Even with our three starters from the line on injured reserve–including two 1st round picks no less! – the line of 2nd string backups continued to successfully assert the run game. This a testament to the success of Cable’s zone blocking scheme which rewards familiarity more than raw talent. Yes, the jury is still out on James Carpenter and John Moffitt but clear improvements could be seen. Max Unger is quietly doing a fantastic job in the interior. Fans worried about Russell Okung’s injury proneness can relax. Okung played every game until he was injured to no fault of his own when Trent Cole, frustrated by Okung’s domination, took a cheap shot on him after the whistle was blown. After the slow start to the season Okung did an excellent job containing talented DEs/LBs such as Osi Umenyiora, DeMarcus Ware, Terrell Suggs, and Ryan Kerrigan with little help. He’s everything we could have hoped for and possibly more from our 2010 1st round pick.


The Bad – Areas that need improvement.

• Special teams coverage was a huge a liability. And I’m not just solely thinking of week 1 where Ted Ginn Jr returned two TDs just after the Seahawks had regained momentum and started threatening. I’m also thinking about Brandon Tate’s punt return for a touchdown which sealed the game for the Bengals. I’m thinking of how for most of the season the Hawks were passively losing the battle for field position in general. It wasn’t until they signed Heath Farwell in late October did Seahawks fans start feeling like they might not have an aneurism after every kick return.

• The breakdown of run defense in 2nd half of season can’t happen with this kind of defensive line. Up until week 9 at Dallas the Seahawks had been the best run defense in the NFL in terms of yards-per-carry (ypc) only allowing 3.15. From week 9 until finish they averaged an unacceptable 4.5 ypc. In our 4-3 defense the typical personnel grouping on the line is Chris Clemmons, Brandon Mebane, Alan Branch, and Red Bryant. You’ll notice that with the exception of Clemmons the rest of the linemen are all 310lbs+ tanks. With the exception of Clemmons, they’re meant to be immovable objects for stopping the run, not breathing down the QB’s throat. Shields, not spears. When you design a line with these types of players, as Pete Carroll did, you are intentionally sacrificing pass-rush players for stopping the run. I’m not sure what happened to the run defense in the later half because unlike last season with Red Bryant there were no critical injuries on the line. When you lay down these kinds of personnel resources dedicated to stopping the run you have to, well, STOP THE RUN. CONSISTENTLY.



• The game management could be better from our coaching staff. Keep in mind that I’m not typically one of those annoying fans that complains about terrible play calling when something goes wrong. When it comes to scheme fans should generally give some benefit of the doubt to the coaches/coordinators because its kind of their profession and, well, they sort of know more about football than we do. However, I’m talking about the tendency our coaching staff to make some poor decisions in general at times. A 61 yard field goal, for real? Going for it on 4th-2 with 14 seconds left in the half with no timeouts instead of kicking a FG? 1st and goal on the 2 yard line and were going to pass all downs with Charlie Whitehurst who has been inept all day? Even after Leon Washington just carried for 20 yards on 3 carries on the same drive? You get my drift.


The Ugly – I’m bleeding from my eyes watching this!

• Charlie Whitehurst also gets his own bullet point.

• We were the second most penalized team after the Raiders. You probably know this because the broadcasters never failed to remind us at every possible moment during the later half of the season. But what’s really bad was that a large portion of these penalties weren’t from young inexperienced guys that are on a learning curve. Veterans like Raheem Brock, Robert Gallery, and Paul McQuistan were some of the most penalized Seahawks players. Even if we do draft or sign our young dreamboat quarterback of the future, the offense in particular is likely to remain volatile and inconsistent until the QB gains experience. These penalties will continue to kill us.

• The utter lack of pass-rush or QB pressure was really hard to stomach. Throughout the season opposing QBs typically had enough time in the pocket to file for their taxes or at least get play a few rounds of Angry Birds on their smart phones. And then once they got bored of that they could scramble out of the pocket for about 10 yards. I don’t care which QB you are. Even guys like Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, and John Skelton will cut through good defensive coverage if they are allowed to make reads forever. It’s clear PC was really hoping Raheem Brock would have another strong year as a situational pass-rusher (fail). Despite the Seahawks supremacy being on the defensive side of the ball, this is easily the most important area that needs to be addressed next to the quarterback position.

• Zach Miller actually switched positions from TE to FRT (far right tackle). To be sure, Zach Miller had to figure he would be doing a lot of blocking with a new offensive line (including two rookies and one sophomore) that had never played together coming in from a shortened off-season. But seriously, 25 receptions? That’s not even half the amount he had in any of his seasons at Oakland since 2008. Miller is way too talented to justify that.

And just in case you think I didn't give enough love to the beast mode in this article: