Is The Big East Really That Good?

You may have heard that the University of Washington Huskies now have the dubious honor of being the only major conference regular season champion to not make it to the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament. After going 14-4 during the Pac-12 season the Huskies missed out on the NCAA Tournament because of a supposedly weak conference this year. ESPN and other sports media distributor loved to remind us how bad the Pac-12 was. This precieved weakness worked against the Huskies and coupled with their unexpected loss to the Beavers in the first round of the Pac-12 tournament gave the selection media all the ammo they needed to keep the Dawgs on the outside looking in.

What really annoyed me about the Huskies missing out wasn't that the Huskies didn't make it because of the media's portrail of their conference but that other less deserving Big East team's did make it because of the supposed strength of that conference. Both West Virginia and Connecticut made the tournament. West Virginia went 9-9 and Connecticut went 8-10 in the Big East. You read that right, UConn went 8-10 in their conference and made the tournament!

Believe it or not the intent of this post isnt to bitch and moan about the Huskies missing the NCAA Tournament. Their misfortune was just what sparked the idea of looking closer into the Big East's supposed dominance. Sports journalists have been telling anyone and everyone for the last several years how great the Big East is. They frequently get compared to the SEC's football dominance. I wanted to know if their glorified stature as college basketball's best conference was earned or not.   

To start my research I looked at all how many teams each conference has had make the tournament since 2007. I thought this would show which conferences the selection committee favors. Table 1 shows all of the conference with at least 1 At-Large bid since 2007 along with the total number of teams they have sent. What we see is the Big East has sent the most teams to the tournament and by a large margain. The Big Ten comes in second and they are 14 total teams behind or 2.33 teams per year. This shows quite obviously that Big East teams are being rewarded for their seasons with trips to the NCAA tournament.

Table 1: Total Number of Teams Sent by Conference Since 2007

Now that we know the Big East is being treated like a dominate conference, the next question to ask is do they deserve it? The best way I could think to look at this was to find out if their team's find success in the tournament. I took the results of all the first round games and calculate a winning percentage (W%) for each conference. I used only first round data because it eliminates win stacking* that would occur because of really good teams.  Table 2 shows the resulting winning percentages of the top ten conferences (check out the Ohio Valley Conference with a .667 W%). As you can see the Big East did pretty well for themselves coming in fourth with a .673 W%. However, they are definitely not as dominate as the Big 12 or the Big Ten with their .765 and .743 W%. 

Table 2: Top Ten Conference W% Since 2007

Finally, I looked at what conferences the teams from the championship games were from. Out of the ten teams that made the Championship game only 1 was from the Big East. The ACC, Horizon and Big Ten each had two teams in the finals (Technically the Horizon had Butler twice, but whatever). So, when you look at the NCAA Championship game to find dominance the Big East comes up short again.

Basically all my research pointed to one thing, the complete and total Big East love by the media is not all that warranted. The Conference has been good over the last 5 years, but it hasn't been dominant. The Big Ten and Big 12 have both found more success. The Big East is a good basketball conference, but it just doesn't live up to the hype. The NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee should stop giving them so much credit on selection Sunday and recognize other more deserving teams.

* An example of what I mean by win stacking: The Pac-12 and Big 12 both have three teams make the tournament.  All three Pac-12 teams win their first games and lose in the second round. For the tournament the Pac-12 has a 3-3 record or .500 winning percent. Meanwhile two of the Big 12 teams lose in the first round but one team makes it all the way to the finals before they lose. For the tournament the Big 12 has a 5-3 record or .625 winning percentage.The Pac-12 appears to be less successful despite having more teams win in the tournament. The success of that one Big 12 team unfairly over shadows the failures of the others.

A Few Tidbits from Around the Web Related to WWU NCAA Div II Men's Basketball National Championship

On Saturday my Alma Mater, Western Washington University, defeat Montevallo 72-65 to win the NCAA Division II Men's Basketball National Championship. This is a big deal for WWU and the state of Washington Basketball. Unfortunately, because the school is all the way in Bellingham and they play Division II, they probably wont get the attention they deserve. So, here are a bunch of links from around the web about the WWU Viking's Championship.

• Didn't get to see the game Saturday morning on CBS? Watch this video highlight to see what you missed.
• You can read the recap of the game here.
• If you thought team basketball was dead, the WWU championship game proved otherwise.

The Mariners Upcoming Season Part 1

This year we are going to approach our preview for the upcoming baseball season a little differently. In the past we have looked at the whole league and provided two posts; One that details our top five teams and one that details the bottom five. This year  we are going to be more Mariner centric. I will review three position players and give a prediction on the season's outcome. Later Matt will review three pitchers and give his prediction on the season's outcome. Hopefully people enjoy this new format. If you don't let us know in the poll on the side and we can try something new for football season.

 

 

Player I am most optimistic about: Dustin Ackley

Going into the 2011 Ackley was the number one prospect every Mariners fan wanted to see play. He had dominated the NCAA and was the second overall pick in 2009 behind Stephen Strasburg. Predictions and opinions about Ackley and his potential ran rampant across Mariner fan nation. For the most part he didn't disappoint in his major league debut. In 2011 Ackley hit .273 with an OBP of .348 good for wRC+ of 117. This was tied with Mike Carp for the highest wRC+ of any regulars. The biggest complaint about Ackley had to be his defense. Although he struggled at times I felt like Ackley did pretty well for someone who had only been playing 2B for parts of two seasons. Based on his reputation as a player with a high upside and his good rookie campaign I am very optimistic about Dustin Ackley's upcoming 2012 season. I wouldn't be shocked if he ended up our only non-pitcher All-Star.

 

 

Player I am most pessimistic about: Chone Figgins

 To put it bluntly I expect Chone Figgins to be cut or traded away for a bucket of balls by June 1. In his two seasons with the Mariners he has shown little or no reason for optimism. In 2010 he batted .259 with a .340 OBP all good for an 88 wRC+. It should be noted almost all of this was at the end of the year when he got a little better with the pressure off. Despite the opinion that he was moving back to his natural position of 3B and should get better, he was abysmal in 2011. Figgins batted .188 and had a .241 OBP good for a wRC+ of 34. That means he was 66% worse than a league average hitter. To put that in perspective Yuniesky Betancourt’s worst wRC+ as a Mariner was 74 in his rookie season. Chone Figgins was worse than Yuniesky Betancourt. I just don't see how a move to the top of the order is going to suddenly cure all his crappiness. Take all that into account and then add that he is 34 and the result most likely another terrible year.

 

 

Player I am most excited to watch play: Kyle Seager

He was drafted in 2009 out of UNC as a 2B. Coming out of college he wasn't nearly as heralded as his college team mate Dustin Ackley. In fact a lot of people just wrote him off. However, Seager has still managed to produce and make it to the majors in only his third season of Pro ball. In 2010 Seager hit .345 in A+ ball. In 2011 he hit .312 in AA and .387 in AAA. He basically hit his way onto the offensively stagnant mariners. While on the big league club last year, Seager hit .258 and clubbed 3 HR in 53 games. Those aren't stellar numbers but when you take a deeper look at his results you can see signs that the talent is there. While in the Bigs he struck out only 17.9% of the time. When compared to other Mariner's rookies (Carlos Peguero 34.8%, Trayvon Robinson 39.4%) this is a really encouraging stat. Additionally once Seager had been in the Bigs for a while he adjusted to the pitching and improved considerably. The graph below shows how his batting average changed over time in the majors. I don't expect Seager to be an All-Star, but I am definitely excited to see what he can do with a whole season at the major league level. I think he could be a valuable asset to a team deeply in need of hitting.

Expectation for the team: 70-80 wins
Coming into last year the Mariners weren't expected to do much. They were coming off a 100 loss season and were planning on starting lots of young players and pitchers. The hope was someone would develop into a good player or at least the experience at the major league level would help.  Unfortunately, this year the plan is much of the same. Instead of a 100 loss season the M's are coming off a 95 loss season. They are still planning on starting a lot of young players and are hoping one of the young players breaks out in a big way. Just comparing the similarities the Mariners dont appear to have much of a chance in 2012.

However, I do see some difference between this year and last and those difference are just enough to provide some room for optimism (if you consider 70-80 wins optimism). This year the Mariners offense wont Milton Bradley and Jack Cust dragging them down. They were the opening day LF and DH. This year we get Mike Carp, Jesus Montero and Casper Wells to cover that role. Mike Carp was one of the young players that actually did find success in 2011, Jesus Montero is regarded as a hitting phenom and Casper Wells isnt Milton Bradley or Jack Cust. Between the three of them they should improve the offense a little. On the pitching side Felix Hernandez is still in a Mariners Uniform and it never hurts to have the best pitcher in the AL on your team. In addition to the King, the Mariners have a fairly deep rotation of guys that appear to be able to at least tred water at the major league level.

So see, all is not lost. With an even slightly upgraded offense and a still solid starting rotation the Mariners should be able to perform a little better than last year. Who knows, maybe somebody will pop and the Mariners will still be in it at the All-Star break.

Sources: Fangraphs.com