Fernando Rodney has Been Bad

The Fernando Rodney Experience has always been a thrill ride. Throughout his career he has had a way of building up the drama and the tension during all of his appearances. For the last several season he has managed to get himself out of the jams he creates and post some of the best results based stats in MLB. However this year the Experience has turned into a straight up horror show.

Looking at the normal stats Rodney's year has been terrible. He has an ERA of 5.50, 4 blown saves, and has managed to lose his job as the closer to a rookie. These stats show us how bad he has been but don’t give us a clue as to why. Let's dig deeper into the advanced stats to find a source for the abysmal performance.

Looking at Rodney's advanced stats we can see that his pitch selection this year of 64.3% fastballs and 35.2% changeups is right in line with his career averages. As far as pitch selection goes he doesn't seem to have changed anything. So it doesn't seem to be an issue with the pitch type he is throwing but instead what is happening to those pitches after he throws them.

During Rodney's career his ability to throw faster than most other pitchers has been one of his biggest assets. Rodney throws fast, with lots of movement, and with medium amounts of control. This has made it hard for opposing batters to catch up with his pitches and actually make good contact. They were left guessing, which has let him rack up strikeouts.

This year Rodney's strikeout percentage (K/9) is down. He has only been able to ring up 7.00 batter per 9 innings. This is his lowest rate since he was a rookie. However, his walk rate (BB/9) is holding steady. We see him giving up 4.25 free passes per 9 this year, which is actually slightly below his career average of 4.40  So he still isn't able to control his pitches, but that randomness isn't resulting in confusion for the batter anymore.

Let's take a deeper look at his pitches. His average fastball speed is 95.1 mph compared to his career average of 95.7 mph. He doesn't appear to have lost the speed that brought him success. However, his swinging strike rate (SwStr%) is down to 8.2% from a career average of 11.3%. Despite still throwing hard Rodney isn't able to make people miss and when a batter doesn't miss a 95 mph fastball bad things can happen.

In 2015 Rodney is giving up home runs on 16.2% of the flyballs that batters hit (HR/FB). This is a really high percentage. Of qualified relievers, Rodney's HR/FB is 13th worst in all of MLB. Additionally, this high rate isn't something to be expected. His 2015 number is the highest of his whole career. The previous worst was 12.8% with 2005 with the Tigers. Over the last five seasons the worst rate Rodney has posted is 7.1%. In recent history he has actually been pretty good at preventing homeruns.

So what does this all mean? If you want to remain optimistic it means Rodney has room to improve. He can work on regaining the movement of his pitches. Also he is probably going to stop giving up so many dingers. He has a good sample size and a recent run of success saying giving up homers just isn't one of his weaknesses. Basically Rodney has just had a string of self really bad luck that has been exacerbated by a changing in his pitch movement.

On the flip side, if you want to be a pessimist, this probably means Rodney has lost something and he probably isn't getting it back. The ex-closer is 38 years old now and the league has figured him out. He is showing that he can't make a baseball dance like he used to. Now instead of making batter look foolish he is giving those that can catch up to 95 mph something they can drive. When you can line up a 95 mph fastball you can make it soar, often into the stands.

Decreased swinging strikes and increased HR/FB are a receipt for bad results, which is exactly what Rodney has had so far.  Regardless of what you think the future holds for the Fernando Rodney Experience one thing is for certain, he was terrible in the first half. Let's hope something puts an end to the horror show.

Sources: Fangraphs

Expand the All-Star Skill Competitions

Tomorrow, July 14th, is the MLB All-Star game, which is being played in Cincinnati this year. The approach of this game got me thinking about All-star games in general. The concept of getting all of the best players in a professional league together and having them play an exhibition game seems like a good one. However, all three of the major sports leagues, NBA, NFL, and MLB, have generally boring All-star games. None have held my interest in years. However, all of the leagues do feature various skills exhibitions (e.g. Home Run Derby and Dunk Contest) prior to the actual game. These events are fun to watch. I try to make sure I see them every year. I think it is time we just cancel the NBA and NFL All-Star games and just focus on skill events.

The various All-Star games have turned into drawn out and boring affairs filled with lackadaisical performances and too many commercials. The play is sloppy and subpar. Only MLB manages to put on a watchable show. In the NFL and NBA games the defense is basically non existences which takes away a major part of the sport. The primary factor for this is the fear of injury. None of the stars or their teams want to risk injury in a game that doesn't matter.

Sports like basketball and football are very team centered games. Throwing together All-Star caliber players and asking them to play together with little or no practice is bound to result in a sloppy game. That is exactly what the NBA Al-Star game and NFL Pro-Bowl are. In the NBA there are turnovers and missed shots galore. Basically players start playing hero ball and isolation. You miss out on the beauty that is the fluid game of team Basketball. The NFL's game is full of blown routes and missed throws. You can't ask a group of players to gel at the level required to create great football.

It would be terrible for the fans the teams and most importantly the platers to suffer a major injury  during a basically meaningless game. Imagine the outcry if a star quarterback suffered a major injury during the Pro Bowl because some DE wanted to prove he was the best pass rusher in the league, but instead got caught on a block and awkwardly rolled into the knees of the passer. In an instance the team next season is wiped out and potentially the players next payday and future financial security. It doesn't make sense to play hard defense during and All-Star game and risk season or career altering injuries. That means it also doesn't make sense to play the game at all.

The skills competitions that the leagues put on have little or no risk of injury. The NBA's skills competitions are probably the most dangerous. The Dunk Contest, Three Point Contest, and Skills Challenge all require running and physical effort near game level to compete. However, they are all performed by world class athletes in a non-defended and non-contact environment. Guys shouldn't get hurt throwing down a 360 tomahawk jam.

Speaking of 360 tomahawk jams, watching Dunk Contest is fun. Although the event still has way to many commercials and takes longer than it should, it is generally a good time. Similarly the MLB Home Run Derby is a fun spectacle for a summer evening. I witnessed the events live at Safeco Field in 2001, it was a blast (pun intended). In both leagues they are able to bring out stars to compete in most of the events (the NBA does fail to do this in the Dunk Contest from time to time). This allows fans to see their favorites, while putting them in different non game situations that are fun to watch. It is way more fun than the All-Star games.

One of the things the that hurts the NFL's All-Star experience, the Pro Bowl, is a lack of a skills challenge. They eliminated the events after the 2007 events. Reading online it appears that the NFL never gave a great explanation for why the competitions were ended. Now all they have left is a boring no touch version of a football game that nobody watches. Clearly they cancelled the wrong events.

MLB is the only one of the big three with an All-Star game that shouldn't be eliminated. The baseball game is interesting for the first couple of innings when all the starters are still playing. However, by about the 5th or 6th all the best players are out and the game starts to drag.

Even with the only All-Star game worthy of surviving, MLB should considering expanding their skill competitions. Currently the only one is the Home Run Derby. They could easily add a fly ball or ground ball shagging contest. Imagine Andrelton Simmons and Elvis Andrus seeing who could scoop up the most grounders and make an accurate throw to first. Maybe points for range and accuracy of throwing. The league could easily add a stolen base race. They could have Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton see who can go first to second fastest. I would tune in to see that.

Two of the three majors leagues, the NBA and the NFL, should seriously consider cancelling their All-Star games. All three should instead focus on skills challenges. This would give players more time to rest and heal, while providing fans with a fun break from the regular season. It would eliminate the yearly complaints about none of the players giving any effort during the games. It would still give fans a chance to see the stars and enjoy the fun the comes with these slightly silly events.