Baseball, you’ve changed. It’s Time for Me to Leave.

It isn’t easy to admit when you stop loving something. There is a sense of commitment to it even after the joy is gone. Falling out of love has been a long and slow process for me. It didn’t happen because a singular event ripped us apart. I am not hurt or angry. It happen because I changed and so did baseball, and we no longer match each other. It happened because the Mariners results didn’t change and the future doesn’t look bright. Baseball and the Seattle Mariners just aren’t for me anymore.

I remember when my disillusion with the Mariners started. It was 2013 when the Astros joined the AL West. The Astros were one of the worst teams in baseball for several years running. They lost over one hundred games in both 2011 and 2012. In 2013 they would finish 51-111. Yet against the Mariners they went 9-10. In their six matchups in April, when the season was still young and there was hope for the M’s, the Astros went 4-2. It was very disheartening seeing the Seattle Mariners get outplayed by the worst team in Major League Baseball. It really broke my passion for the Mariners. It showed me they really were a cursed/pathetic/hopeless organization.

Over the next five years the Mariners weren't even terrible; they never lost 90+ games. But they also weren’t good and they continued to no one’s surprise to miss the playoffs. The Mariners were stale. There were some fun times (Dae Ho Lee!) to be sure. However there was also a lot of the same old thing. The Mariners would start slow, start to climb back up the standings and then collapse right when it started to get interesting.

My cynicism for the Mariners didn’t end my enjoyment of baseball in immediately. That happened more gradually. There wasn’t a single event that made me lose interest.  Instead it was just a slow steady decline resulting in where I am now. Baseball is boring to me.

The games don’t hold my attention anymore. Nothing happens for long stretches of the game. Most of the time you are just watching someone in the batters box fail to put the ball in play. Batters strikeout about a quarter of plate appearances (league median is 22.3%)

Additionally, players and managers have realized the value of walks and try to maximize them which leads to taking more pitches and earning more walks (8.5% of plateappearances in 2018.) combine these two trends and it means players don’t put the ball in play around a third of the time.

Then there are the constant commercial breaks (inning changes, pitcher changes, in game trips to the mound.) It often feels like there is more time not watching baseball then actually seeing the sport. (I must see five Lee Johnson Mazda ads per game. ) I feel like I know the advertising jingles better than the players. The playoffs (not that Mariners fans would know) are even worse. The games can easily last four hours, and the networks broadcasting them try to cram as many ads as possible in. It ruins what could be an exciting playoff system. Instead of the broadcast amplifying the tension and drama of the game it does the opposite by cutting away and showing promos for some new sitcom.

With all of this downtime one of the main things to do, while you watch Kyle Seager take another strike two, is listen to the commentators talk about how great Kyle Seager is and how he is really going to come out of his slump soon, maybe right now. The Mariners broadcast can be unctuous. They pride themselves on being fans, but they fail to call out the bad play or decisions the team has continued to make for 15 years (I won’t hold 2002 or 2003 against them.) for a team that wasn’t so laughably inept it would be acceptable, but the Mariners are one of the most consistently bad teams in the major American sports leagues. They hold longest active streaks for missing the playoffs. If they played in another market with more media coverage nationally they would be a laughing stock, instead they are just irrelevant. The announcers need to be able to admit the reality the fans are watching.

I may sound bitter or mad, but I am not. I am just realistic about what the sport and my home team have become for me. I don’t think I am leaving on bad terms. I have filled my summer evening with other hobbies and I am sure we will still see each other from time to time. The Mariner’s home field is still beautiful and hard to resist on a nice summer evening. Sitting on the first base side of the stands and looking out over the left field bleachers as the sun sets is special. I also don’t expect other diehards to follow my lead or even agree with me. My experience of falling out with baseball is personal. Baseball holds a special place in the hearts and minds of many people. It is nearly synonymous with summer for some fans. It was this way for me once, but not anymore.

Baseball I don’t love you anymore.

The AL West is Too Good

After 14 years of futility and mediocre to bad baseball the Mariner’s are finally having a good season. They are 61-41, 20 games over .500. The team is on pace for 97 wins and that should surely mean a post season appearance. Everything should be good in Seattle baseball, except for the freaking Oakland A’s.

The A’s have won 7 of their last 9 and in July they have gone 15 and 5. The team is on a crazy good run and has catapulted up the standings. They are only 1 game back of the M’s and are threatening to cruise right past them. It is like a repeat of 2002 all over again.

What the hell?! We already suffered through missing the playoffs with 90+ wins, twice (2002 nd 2003.) Can’t the M’s finally catch a break? The team has served their time. They have changed their approach and signed good young players. They have a great mix of veterans and club controlled players. They can hit and pitch well enough (9th in team wRC+ and 14th in team ERA) and they are scrappy. They have one of the best closers in baseball. This should be their year. They should be fighting for a division title. Not battling to hang onto the second wild card.

Instead they are stuck in second place behind the best team in the majors (the Astros are 1st in team ERA and 2nd in team wRC+) and barely in the second wild card spot because between them the Yankees and Red Soxes have essentially locked down the first wild card. This could be another year that the Mariners win 90+ and miss the playoffs because the AL West is too good yet again.

2014: Close but No Cigar for Robinson Cano

Coming off the dismal four season stretch of 2010-2013 the Mariners decided to just go huge during the 2014 offseason and sign Robinson Cano to a 10 year $240 million contract. The final verdict of this contract has still not been decided and won't be until 2023. One thing was for sure though, the Mariners weren't messing around in 2014. They were willing to spend money to bring the best players to Seattle and try to make the playoffs for the first time in twelve years.

https://www.gq.com/story/robinson-cano-seattle-mariners

Cano's 2014 season was a success. He hit .314/.382/.454. That made him the first Mariner to bat over .300 since Ichiro in 2010. He tied with Jose Altuve for the highest wRC+among major league second basemen at 137 (17th best among all players).  His 14 home runs were a disappointing low for the second baseman's career (tied for his career worst), but were still the third most by any Mariner in 2014. All and all it was a very good year for the Mariners $240 million man.

Robbie wasn't the only Mariner to have a good 2014. Overall the team's pitching staff had an amazing 3.17 ERA. The starting pitchers did especially well, with Felix Hernandez standing out the most.

Felix Hernandez's 2014 season is his best season to date. He completely dominate the AL. In 34 starts he pitched 236 innings and gave up only 56 earned runs, equal to a 2.14 ERA. He struck out 248 batter and walked only 46 for a crazy good 5.39 strikeout to walk ratio. Felix's changeup was essentially unhittable in 2014. Opposing batter's hit a dismal .197 against Felix. It felt like he was trying to single handedly drag the Mariners into the playoffs. Yet somehow despite all this Felix lost out on the Cy Young award to Corey Kluber, who had more wins, more strikeouts, and fewer wild pitches than Felix.

Starting pitchers Hasashi Iwakuma, Roenis Elias, James Paxton and Chris Young also had good years for the M's. All of their ERAs were under 4.00 and only Elias had a losing record. Young had an interesting stat line because his ERA was a respectable 3.65, but his FIP was a high 5.02, implying he recorded better results than were to be expected. However, upon further examination this appears to just have been Chris Young's style. Every year of his 13 year career except 2005 and 2017 he managed to pull off this feat.

In addition to the starters, the pitching at the end of games was clutch for the Mariners. 37 year old veteran reliever Fernando Rodney signed with the team in the offseason and did an excellent job in the closer role. He saved 48 games in 51 chances, he struck out 76 batters in 66.33 innings, his hat was greatly misaligned and for all this he was awarded with an All-star appearance and much love from the Safeco field fans. Rodney's arrow celebration was a big hit and something to look forward to as the team closed out another win.

In his sixth and final season with the team outfielder Michael Saunders looked like he was finally putting it all together at the plate, batting .273 with a .341 OBP in 231 AB. Unfortunately for Saunders it was injury plagued once again. This inability to stay healthy and on the field was a constant during Saunders tenure with the club. During the offseason the Mariners front office grew tired of the nagging injuries holding Saunders back and flipped him to Toronto.

The Mariners finished the season 87-75, their best finish since 2007. Even more frustrating for fans they finished in 6th place in the AL, just one game behind the Oakland Athletics for the final wild card spot. Although it wasn't the only reason the M's missed the playoffs, a five game losing streak between September 20th-24th really hurt them (as did the other 70 losses).  They gave up 43 runs over those five games and only scored 10. They didn't end the season with a four game winning streak, but it wasn't enough to overcome the damage done to the standing with the previous skid. The addition of Cano and the stellar pitching by Hernandez and company still wasn't quite enough to get them into the playoffs and the drought continued.

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference

2012-2013: Two more Years of Bad Offense and Great Felix

Another two years and another two terrible offenses. In both 2012 and 2013 the Mariners failed to have a player hit better than .280, making it four straight years. This is quite an impressively bad achievement. This utterly bad offense resulted in two more losing seasons. In 2012 the team went 75-87. They followed that up in 2013 with a 71-91 record.

One interesting anomaly of a stat in 2013 was the Mariners ability to hit homeruns. They were second in the AL with 188, despite being second to last in total hits. This quirk resulted in the Mariners still failing to score runs because nobody was ever on base when the ball left the yard.

2012 saw some very large and important roster moves. The biggest being the trade of Ichiro to the New York Yankees on July 23rd 2012. It looked like the end of the road for Ichiro, who was having another sub-par season. His triple slash for the Mariners was only .261/.288/.353. Yet somehow Ichiro has managed to bounce around the league for another four seasons and is now back with the Mariners (and may start on opening day if people don't get healthy). Ichiro was a truly great players for the Mariners for twelve years. He made ten straight All-star teams to start his career. It was sad to see the end come (for the first time), but it was the right move for the Mariners.

Another big move was the trade of Michael Pineda to the Yankees for Jesus Montero. This trade happened during the offseason and appeared that it was filling a weak spot for both teams. The Yankees got up and coming pitcher Michael Pineda. After a strong rookie season, the young man looked set to be future star. Unfortunately he got hurt and didn't pitch in the big leagues again until 2014. The Mariners got Jesus Montero, who was billed as a sure-thing hitter. He was a slow as mud catcher, but everyone was so sure about his bat that they assumed he would slide into DH. Montero was a failure for the Mariners. Looking back this trade turned out to be a huge disappointment for both teams.

The final big move of 2012 was the signing of Hisashi Iwakuma. The pitcher came to the Mariners from Japan at age 31. In the NPB he had put together a great career, but it is never a sure thing if it will translate in the MLB. Iwakuma proved any doubters wrong by pitching great in 2012 and even better in 2013. He pitched so well in 2013 that he finished third in the Cy Young voting.

2012 and 2013 also saw Kyle Seager cement himself at third base for the M's. In 2012 he hit .259 with 20 HR and 35 2B. In 2013 Seager hit .260 with 22 HR and 32 2B. His wRC+ in these years were 108 and 116 respectively. Both of these years, while not stellar, were of major league quality, something the Mariners sorely lacked in the early 2010's. The Mariners front office and marketing staff were quick to jump on this new not terrible player and started marketing him.

Felix Hernandez continued his stretch of dominating the AL and had another two great seasons. In 2012 he had a 3.06 ERA, 223 K, 56 BB in 232 innings pitched. In 2013 he had a 3.04 ERA, 216 K, 46 BB in 204.33 innings pitched. King Felix made the All-star team both years. It is still a sad fact to look back and see how amazing Felix was and how bad his teams where that wasted his talent.

Brendan Ryan pulled off an impressive feat for the Mariners in 2012. The shortstop had signed with the team in 2011 and put together an acceptable season at the plate, especially considering his amazing defense. Then in 2012 his hitting completely fell apart. He hit .194 with only a .278 slugging percentage. Yet because of his defensive prowess Ryan managed to record a positive 3.4 wins above replacement (WAR) according to Baseball Reference. This was tied for the third highest WAR on the whole team and tied for first with John Jaso for the highest position player. Think about that, Ryan's defense was so valuable to the Mariners that it overcame a .194 batting average. Unfortunately for Ryan his hitting remained terrible in 2013 and his defense dropped off. The Mariners traded him to the New York Yankees for a PTBNL.

I want to mention one more interesting thing that happened in 2012. On June 8th 2012 the Mariner's pitchers threw a combined no hitter to beat the LA Dodgers 1-0. The score was super apropos because of how terrible the Mariners offense was. The Mariners used six pitchers. Kevin Millwood started the game and went six innings. Charlie Furbush, Stephen Pryor, Lucas Luetge, Brandon League, and Tom Wilhelmsen each pitched in relief. Stephen Pryor, who pitched the worst with 2 BB and only 1 out, earned the win. It was a crazy game.

2012 and 2013 were a pair of disappointing seasons because the teams still couldn't hit a lick. They were just terrible at hitting. It was even more unbearable because Seattle hadn't just suffered through 2010 and 2011, two of the worst offensive seasons since the 70's. The bad baseball drove frequent movement of players. The biggest departure was Ichiro, one of the greatest players in Mariners history. If it hadn't been for the great pitching of Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma there would have been no reason to watch in 2012 and 2013.

Sources: Baseball Reference, Fangraphs

2011: If You Thought 2010 was Bad Let Me Introduce You to 2011

2011 felt a lot like 2010. It was another terrible season for the Seattle Mariners. They lost 95 games, primarily because their offense was historically bad, yet again. Nobody on the team, with at least 20 AB, had a batting average over .280. Let that sink in. Nobody with any significant playing time hit over .280. Mike Carp had the highest batting average of those players at .276. Because no one was getting on base the team scored only 556 runs, the second straight year under 600 runs. Not only could the team not get on base they also couldn't hit for power. The team leader for HR was Miguel Olivo with only 19. 

Probably the statistic that best shows how bad the M's were in 2011 was ratio of strikeouts to walks. The team struck out 2.94 times for each walk they drew. To pull off such an embarrassing result the team led the American League in strikeouts and was last place for base on balls. The team had more strikeouts than hits. No other team in the American League managed to do this.

Additionally the Mariners had the fourth oldest team in the American League with an average age of 29.4 years old. So, it wasn't like this was a bunch of young pups just breaking into the big leagues. They were a team of has-beens on their last legs. There were very few hopes for the future, only 8 of 26 position players to appear in a game were 25 or younger. It was a truly pitiful team of hitters.

Mariners star outfielder Ichiro Suzuki had a remarkable season, but for bad reasons. It was his age 34 season and he looked it. It was the first time he ever got less than 200 hits in a major league season and he wasn't injured. He played 161 games. The former star batted only .272 and had a low .310 OBP. With his mediocre stats it was the first time in his career he missed the All-Star game.

After a bad first season with the Mariners Chone Figgins started off his second year strong. He hit a homerun in the very first game. Sadly that was the end of the good times for Figgins. He didn't hit another homer all year and only hit an abysmal .188 in 81 games. Figgins was so terrible that they put him on the DL in early August and left him there for the rest of the season.

Surprisingly 2011 did have some notable moments for position players that could be construed as positive. Two players of significance made their rookie debuts for the Mariners, former 2nd overall pick Dustin Ackley and future All-star third baseman Kyle Seager. Ackley led the team in batting average for qualified players with a .273 average. He also led the team in OBP with a .348. Unfortunately both were career high for the former second overall pick. Although much less touted than Ackley at the time, Big Booty Seags managed to hit .258 in 53 games. Of the two players Seager would go on to have a much better career (yep I am calling it now even though neither is technically retired). The two infielders were about the only bright spot the whole year.

On the pitching side of things 2011 was another successful year, as long as you don't look at wins and losses.

Rookie phenom Michael Pineda started 28 games and was stellar. He looked like he was going to be a major part of the Mariners future (note: he wasn't. Read the 2012 post to learn about his fate). Pineda ERA was 3.74 and he struck out 9.1 batters per nine innings pitched, a very good rate. The young gun was fun to watch pitch and a definite reason to tune into the games.

Another pitcher that did well for the Mariners was Doug Fister. Many fans never believed in Doug. He didn't ever flash dominate stuff and he didn't have the look of an ace. Old school fans saw his 3-12 record and pointed to it as proof he wasn't anything special. But Fister's ERA didn't lie. In 21 starts he  recorded a 3.33 ERA with an even lower FIP at 3.27. Fister just knew how to get batters out.

Mid season, in an attempt to find hitters for the future, the Mariners decided to traded Fister to the Tigers. At the time I thought it was a bad trade and looking back it proved to be one. However one of the players the Mariners got in return, and the one that made the biggest impact with the team, was Charlie Furbush. So in case you had forgotten, in 2011 the Mariners traded Fister for Furbush. It is an awesome sounding trade to be sure.

The final thing worth mentioning about 2011 is King Felix's season. Coming off a Cy Young winning performance the Mariners decided to celebrate their star by creating the King's Court.  The promotional event became an immediate fan favorite and lives on to this day. It has even gained national acclaim. 

Felix's season didn't disappoint his loyal subjects in the court. He pitched 233.66 innings and struck out 222 batters. His K to BB ratio was especially impressive at 3.31. Finally his early sat at a very respectable 3.47. His best single game came on May 22nd against the San Diego Padres. Hernandez struck out 13 batters and walked none in 8 innings and only conceded 1 earned run. All this earned King Felix his second trip to the All-Star game. Overall a very good season.

Much like the season directly before it 2011 was one filled with terrible offense and good pitching. The Mariner's two year stretch of hitting over 2010-2011 may go down as one of the worst in MLB history. They scored under 600 runs in both seasons. 2011 was even more difficult to watch because former star outfielder Ichiro Suzuki was finally caught by age and struggled for the first time in his career. The season was basically a waste because most of the team was old and of the few young players that got opportunities only Kyle Seager ever amounted to anything. The pitching was good, with a team ERA of 3.90, but it wasn't good enough to overcome such a terrible offense.

Sources: Baseball Reference

2010: One of the Worst Seasons of All Time

Coming off an exciting and unexpectedly mediocre 2009 season the Mariners looked to push into the playoffs in 2010. They made a big splash in the offseason acquiring starting pitcher Cliff Lee from the Philadelphia Phillies. The Mariners traded away Tyson Gillies, draft bust Phillippe Aumont, and J.C. Ramirez. Teaming up Lee with Felix Hernandez, Doug Fister, and Jason Vargas the team's top four starters were some of the best in the league. Unfortunately the team failed to improve their offense at all. Their only significant addition was Chone Figgins, who had a disastrous start to the season. The abysmal offense sunk the Mariners season and resulted in a 61-101 record, their second 100 loss season in three years.

The Mariners was amazingly bad. They scored only 513 runs the whole season, which was easily the worst in the AL. They were 100 runs worse than Baltimore Orioles who scored the second least. It was the least runs scored by an American League team since the strike shortened 1981 season. For a full season of games the Mariners 513 runs scored in 2010 was the least scored since 1971 when the California Angels scored 511 runs. Like I said 2010 was an epically bad baseball offense.

Here are some more stats to prove my point and make you hate 2010.

• The Mariners had the least hits in the AL with only 1274. 
• They had the least HR in the AL with only 101. 
• The had the least doubles in the AL with only 227. 
• They had the second most strikeouts in the AL with 1184. 
• Only one player with at least 100 AB batted over .270. 
• The team leader in HR, Russell Branyan, had only 15 dingers.

Part of the problem with the team's offense was their DH. The Mariners brought back Ken Griffey Jr for one more year. Unfortunately the mind was willing but the body was not. The Kid hit .184 with no homers and 2 doubles in 33 games played. The season was such a complete failure that Griffey walked away from the game in the middle of the season. There was no warning about his retirement and just a written statement provided to the media via the team. The playing career of greatest player to ever wear a Mariners uniform came to an abrupt end in 2010. It was a fitting thing to happen in a season that was a complete failure in all things hitting.

As previously mentioned the Mariners only significant addition on offense was Chone Figgins. The former Angel was coming off an All-Star season where he hit .298/.395/.393 with 42 stolen bases. Preseason the commentators talked about the potential for two All-Star caliber men at the top of the order setting the table early and allowing the Mariners to jump out to big leads. Sadly this didn't happen.

Chone Figgins had one of the worst starts to a season of any Mariner ever. In March, April, an May he hit .211 (38/180) with 47 strikeouts and only 10 extra base hits (XHB) (9 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR). His slow start cemented his Mariners legacy as a failure. I can't think of a more hyped free agent signing with the Mariners that had such a miserable start. By the end of the 2010 season Figgins had managed to raise his average up to .259, but with a meager .306 slugging percentage it was still a disappointment. He achieved his impressively low SLG by only recording 24 XBH in over 600 AB.

If you recall from before the other big acquisition coming into the 2010 season was the trade for Cliff Lee. The starting pitcher performed as expected. As a Mariner Lee pitched in 13 games and 103.66 innings. His ERA was a low 2.34 and his FIP was even better at 2.16. All this success allowed the Mariners to trade Lee to the Rangers in July and bring Josh Lueke, Blake Beaven and Justin Smoak. It was the third time Cliff Lee was traded in a calendar year. For being such a stellar pitching talent it was pretty amazing turn of events.

The biggest and most heralded players the Mariners received for Lee was first baseman Justin Smoak. That is right, the 2010 saw the arrival of the Smoakamotive at Safeco field. In his first season with the team he played in 30 games and hit 5 HR. His overall performance wasn't impressive, but Mariners fans were hoping for big things from the South Carolinian and figured him to be an important part of the future. Everyone wanted to get on the train.

The most important and positive thing to happen in 2010 was Felix Hernandez. Despite going 13-12 on the season, not making the All-star team, and his team losing 101 games the Baseball Writers awarded King Felix with the 2010 Cy Young. It was well deserved. Hernandez struck out 232 batters. He posted a 2.27 ERA. He completed 6 of his 34 starts. Depending on how you grade it this was either the best or second best season of Hernandez's career (many would argue 2014 was even better). Felix was the one bright spot in an otherwise dismal season.

2010 is a season best forgotten to the sand of time. It was the fifth time in the franchise's history that the team lost over 100 games. It saw one of the worst offenses in baseball history take the diamond. There was a massive free agent bust and the ungraceful end of a legends career. There was only one bright spot during the whole season and that was the 34 times that Felix Hernandez was in the game.

Sources: Baseball Reference

2009: The Team Show Defense can Win Games

2009 was the year of Ken Griffey's return to a Mariners uniform. I remember the season fondly. For many people the lasting image of the season is Ichiro and Griffey being carried off the field on their teammates shoulders at the end of the season. He didn't help them make the playoffs, and he really wasn't that good of a hitter, but having Junior back in Seattle was something special and intangibly good.

Like a mentioned that Mariners failed to make the playoffs in 2009, just like they had the seven years before and have the eight years since. The team did improve to 85 wins though. That total was carried almost entirely by their pitching and defense. The team ERA was the lowest in the American league (AL) at 3.87. The batters still couldn’t hit a lick. The team scored the fewest runs in the American League with only 640, which was 275 less than the New York Yankees.

The teams pitcher's benefited greatly from the defense stealing away would be base hits. The outfield featured stellar play from Ichiro and Franklin Gutierrez. Adrian Beltre was still holding down the hot corner. Because the voting for the Golden Gloves is terribly flawed only Ichiro was awarded in 2009, but both Beltre and Gutierrez deserved recognition. This stellar defense is highlight by the large difference between the pitchers ERA of 3.87 and FIP of 4.39 (Fielding Independent Pitching is a measure of expected ERA based on BB, HBP, HR and K), which was 11th best in the AL.

The best pitcher on the 2009 Mariners was King Felix, who went 19-5 with 2.49 ERA and 217 K in 238.66 innings pitched.  The season marked the start of a nine year stretch where Felix would strikeout at least 200 opposing batters. It is also Felix's highest win total in a season to date. This dominate performance on the mound got Felix his first All-Star appearance and he finished 2nd in the AL Cy Young Award voting to Zach Greinke (this was completely understandable because Greinke had a lower ERA, and more strikeouts). Basically what you should take away from all this is Felix Hernandez was really freaking good in 2009.

The season brought another new closer to Seattle. This time it was David Aardsma, whose biggest claim to fame is alphabetically. He is first in the record books, directly ahead of Hank Aaron. Aardsma was dominate for the Mariners in 2009. He struck out 80 batters in 71.33 IP, which equates to 10.1 batters per nine innings. He converted 28 of 42 chances for saves. Aardsma was basically automatic for the Mariners in the ninth inning, which really helped the offensively inept team win games.

The season also saw the debut of two starting pitcher, Doug Fister and Jason Vargas, that would go on to have strong if brief Mariners careers. Although they will never make the Mariners Hall of Fame, both will be remembered by fans.

As previously mentioned the Mariners offense was bad during 2009. They were last in the AL for runs scored. That said the team did feature some memorable performances at the plate. The most impressive was probably Russell Branyan who clubbed 31 home runs. He was the first Mariner to pass 30 HR since Richie Sexson in 2006. Branyan also hit 21 doubles brining his slugging percentage up to .520, the highest recorded by a Mariner since Richie Sexson in 2005. Despite all the extra base hits Branyan managed to record only 76 RBI, which highlights just how bad the team was at getting on base.

Pretty much the only guy good at getting on base in 2009 was Ichiro who batted .352 and had an on base percentage (OBP) of .386. It was yet another great year for Ichiro and yet another year that fans and media members grumbled he wasn't doing enough because they were dumb.

At second base Jose Lopez had an interesting season. On the good side he drove in 96 runs and batted .272 hit 42 doubles and 35 homeruns. However on the bad side he walked only 24 times in 653 plate appearances and grounded into 25 double plays, the second most in the AL.

The final thing I want to mention is  the addition of two J. Wilsons to the Mariners via trade. I am of course writing about Jack and Josh, no relation. The Mariners grabbed Josh off waivers from the Padres in June. They then traded Pittsburgh for Jack in July (the Mariners parted with former first rounder pick Jeff Clement in that trade). The Mariners acquired both shortstops in an attempt to try and find an improvement over Yuniesky Betancourt. Based solely on hitting it turned into basically a wash.

Depending how you look at it 2009 was either another missed opportunity for the Mariners or a surprising success. Based on their previous season and their run differential that team shouldn't have been any good. Instead because of clutch hitting, amazing defense, and shutdown pitching team managed to win 85 games. 

Sources: Baseball Reference

2008: Erik Bedard Arrives in Seattle and Gets Everyone Fired.

After winning 88 games in 2007 and appearing to be a team on the rise everything fell apart, yet again, in 2008. The club managed to lose 101 games, the first time over the century mark for losses since 1983. The manager, Jon McLaren, and the general manager, Bill Bavasi, both got the boot halfway through the season. The season is best remembered as an unmitigated disaster.

Looking back on 2008 the problems started before the season even started when the team decided to go all in for the post season. They traded away Adam Jones and Chris Tillman, plus three other players, to the Baltimore Orioles for starting pitcher Erik Bedard. This trade famously failed completely and totally for the Mariners. It is considered one of the worst trades in club history, and definitely the worst of anytime during the current drought.

Obviously hindsight is 20-20, but this trade looks extra bad upon review. Adam Jones turned into an All-Star centerfielder for the Orioles and Chris Tillman has compiled 198 starts for the Orioles since 2009 started. The Mariners only addition from the trade, Erik Bedard, spent two and a half frustrating years with the team, during which he started 46 games. In those games Bedard averaged only 5.5 innings per start, but he did have a good 3.31 ERA (255 IP, 94 ER). While Bedard wasn't bad he wasn't consistent at all and just couldn't be counted on. The price the M's paid for him was just too great. By trading two young and promising minor leaguers it set the team back for years to come.

Once the team actually started playing baseball things didn't go well either. Similar to 2004, the biggest problem with the 2008 team was they couldn't hit or pitch well. Only four players had a wRC+ over 100 (Ichiro, Lopez, Beltre, and Ibanez), meaning they were better than average for their position. Two pitchers started 20 or more games and had ERA's over 6.00 (Silva and Batista). The relief pitchers recorded a record of 36 saves and a whopping 31 blown saves, the most in the American league.

One bright spot was left fielder Raul Ibanez. In his second to last year with Seattle (he returned in 2013 for one last hoorah) Ibanez had a .293 batting average, hit 43 doubles and 23 homer, and drove in 110 runs. This was all good for a wRC+ of 122, by far the best on the Mariners. This good season set Ibanez up for a nice big contract with Philadelphia in 2009.

Ichiro was basically the only person on base for Ibanez to drive in. He score 103 times, or 15% of the Mariners total runs.  Ichiro also racked up his eighth straight year with 200+ hits. Once on base Ichiro stole 43 bases and only got caught 4 times. That is a very impressive 91% success rate. Essentially Ichiro had another typical season.

Another bright spot for the Mariners was the Felix Hernandez finally becoming an ace. Although he went a disappointing 9-11 for the season, his ERA was 3.45, eighth lowest in the American league. Additionally, King Felix struck out 175 batters in 200.66 innings, seventh most in the American League. Overall a very good season.

The rest of the starting pitchers were bad or hurt. We already talked about Erik Bedard and his frustrating first season with the team. In addition to Bedard the team also brought in Carlos Silva. The former Minnesota Twin looked good to start the season, he had a 2.79 ERA in six starts. Then in May everything fell apart. His ERA for the month was 11.00 over 5 starts. Silva ended up starting 28 games in 2008 and he never regained his April form. Although on July 8th he managed tothrow a complete game against Oakland, but in fitting fashion for 2008 he lost 0-2. Silva's final ERA for the season was 6.46. 

2008 is also of note because it was when RA Dickey brought his knuckleball to the Emerald city. Although he had a 5.21 ERA in 112.33 innings during his one season in Seattle, Dickey's unique style made an impression on the fans. I have been following his career from a far ever since.

It wasn't enough that the team couldn't hit or pitch, so for good measure the Mariners also struggled playing defense in 2008. The worst offender was Yuniesky Betancourt who made 21 errors in 153 games, the fourth most in the majors. Betancourt's inability to field groundballs or throw them to first base regularly was a major issue for the shortstop. It probably cost him his job in Seattle.

Calling 2008 a bad season for the Mariners is an understatement. I am sure the franchise would love to just wipe it from the record, but they can't. Fans all around the Pacific Northwest suffered through the season and witnessed some of the worst quality baseball imaginable. The lone offensive bright spot was Raul Ibanez, and the lone pitcher worth lauding was Felix Hernandez. The season is also remember for one of the worst trades in franchise history, which is like rubbing salt in the wound.

Sources: Baseball Reference, Fangraphs 

2005-2007: The Mariners Appear to be Getting Better

Many of you probably don't remember or never knew that Mike Hargrove was the manager of the Seattle Mariners for two and a half seasons. He inherited a terrible team coming off a 63-99 record in 2004 and adds wins each of his seasons at the helm. In 2005 the Mariners won 69 games, they followed that up with 78 wins in 2006 and an exciting 88 in 2007. Strangely Hargrove resigned in the middle of the 2007 season. The team was doing well and it looked like they might finally make the playoffs, so weirdly the manager that suffered through two rebuilding years decided to leave. Hargrove explained to the Seattle Times that it "boiled down to the fact that it was getting increasingly difficult to summon the 100 percent effort he demanded of his players."

In addition to adding Hargrove as the Manager, in 2005 the Mariners added two big name and big money free agents in Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre. Both of these players have a mixed legacy with the Mariners. Sexson spent the end of his career with the Mariners and Beltre the middle, which surely impacted how they are remembered.

Sexson had a 144 wRC+ in 2005. He clobbered 39 HR pleasing fans all over the PNW. In 2006 Sexson's hitting stayed strong. He hit 34 more HR and had a 117 wRC+. The drop off was almost entirely from the decline of walks, which fell from 89 to 64. Sexson also hit 5 Grand Slams in 2006, something that is burned into my baseball memory. Unfortunately for the Big Sexy most fans seem to have 2007 burned into their memories. Sexson's production fell off a cliff in 2007. He did managed to hit 21 HR, but that was about it. His average dropped from the .260's down to .205. His walks dropped to 51. All this resulted in his wRC+ plummeting to 84. In three seasons Richie Sexson went from 44% better than an average first baseman to 16% worse. It was an impressive decline to say the least.

Adrian Beltre came to Seattle from the Los Angeles Dodgers after a season he finished second in the MVP voting. Beltre had already played 7 season with the Dodgers, but was still only 26 years old when he joined the Mariners in 2005. He spent five years in Seattle. If Belte's body followed the normal aging curve they would have been his prime. Instead Beltre somehow got way better when he left the Mariners, dominating the American league in his 30's. We should all be so lucky.

During his whole time with the Mariners Beltre played amazing defense at third base. However, at the plate he was much more disappointing. He never hit 30 homeruns. His highest batting average was only .275, in 2007. His wRC+ topped out at 110 and was below 100, worse than average, twice. During 2005 to 2007 Beltre did manage to improve his hitting stats each year raising his average and slugging in each consecutive year. According to Fangraphs he contributed 9.9 WAR between 2005-2007. Beltre definitely didn't hurt the team, because of his strong defense, but he didn't deliver on the promise of his 2004 Dodgers' season.

Between 2005 and 2007 the Mariners bullpen saw the collapse of Steady Eddie Guardado and the rise of JJ Putz. I think most people think of Eddie Guardado as a bad closer, I know I do. Interestingly though looking back on his 2005 stats shows that Guardado was actually pretty good for the Mariners. He recorded a 2.72 ERA and 36 saves in 41 chances.  He appeared in 58 games. 2006 was a completely different story for Guardado. He gave up 8 homeruns in only 23 innings and blew 3 of his 8 save chances, prompting Manager Mike Hargrove to make a switch at closer to JJ Putz.

Putz was electric in 2006 and even better in 2007. He posted an ERA of 2.30 in 2006 followed by 1.38 in 2007. Over those two seasons he struck out 186 batters and walked 26 in 150 innings. In 2007 his WHIP was a ridiculously low .698. Whenever fans at Safeco Field heard Thunderstruck start to play and saw Putz walking up to the mound you knew the M's were going to win. Putz brought me personally many great memories at the end of games watching opposing hitters be completely flummoxed.

The mid 2000's also saw the introduction of Felix Hernandez to Seattle baseball. In 2005 King Felix impressed in his first 12 major leagues starts. In his third big league game ever Felix pitched 8 inning, gave up 3 hits, 1 runs and struckout 11 Kansas City Royals. He followed that up with another 8 inning gem against the Minnesota Twins (5 H, 2 ER, and 9 K) and fans were hooked. Hernandez struggled a little during his sophomore campaign, seeing his ERA jump up to 4.52. Though the King did throw his first major league complete game shutout that year. It was onAugust 28th against the Los Angeles Angels of Anahiem and unusally both starting pitchers went the distance (the other was Kelvim Escobar). Felix continued to improve in 2007, getting his ERA down to 3.92. He wasn't great in either year, but it is important to remember that ERA in general were higher during the mid 2000's. In both 2006 and 2007 his ERA was below the cumulative ERA of all major league starters (4.69 and 4.63). Although not yet the dominate pitcher fans know today, Felix showed signs of what was to come during all three of his first seasons.

The 2005 through 2007 seasons saw the Mariners climb out of the cellar to flirt with the playoffs. Sadly they didn’t' get the job done in 2007 allowing the now longest playoff draught in Professional sports to continue. These three seasons saw a successful manager quit unexpectedly during a winning season, the addition of big money free agents, and the emergence of a Mariner icon. Overall they were a very memorable set of years.

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference

2004: A Terrible Year for Seattle Baseball

2004 was the year it all came crashing down. The team finished with 63 wins and 99 losses. This was mostly because they couldn't hit or pitch. The Mariners scored the least runs in the AL at 698 or 4.31 runs per game. The pitchers gave up the 5.08 runs per game. It is really hard to be a good team when you give up .77 runs more per game than you score.

Newcomers Rich Aurilla and Scott Spezio both failed. Aurilla started the year at short stop, however he only made it 73 games before being traded to the Padres. In his half season with the team Aurilla hit only .241 with 17 extra base hits. It was his worst offensive performance, as measured by OPS, since 1996, his first full season in the big leagues. Spezio was brought to the team to play first and third base. He did manage to do that, appearing 42 times at first and another 66 at third. Being a warm body on the field was Spezio's biggest contribution to the team. He recorded a -0.8 WAR in 2004 according to Baseball Reference, which means he was worse than a random minor leaguer. Spezio had an OBP of only .288, which is terrible. For comparison's sake Ketal Marte had an OBP of .287 in 2016 while starting at short stop, a traditionally light hitting position, for the Mariners. Scott Spezio started a first and third,traditionally power hitting positions.

In 2004 the Mariners also saw several of their offensive stalwarts have massive drop offs from past production. John Olerud had a triple slash of .245/.354/.360. All three of these were lows for his Mariners career. His tenure with the Mariners ended near the end of July when they released him.

Mariner legend Edgar Martinez also struggled at the plate, at least by his standards (although it was better than Olerud, Spezio and Aurilla). 2004 ended up being the last season of his illustrious career. His runs, hits, homeruns, RBI, and walks all dropped significantly from his 2003 totals.

Despite the gloomy writing so far not all was bad at the plate for the Mariners. Ichiro had his best season at the plate. He set the single season hit record at 262. Ichiro was his usual terror on the base paths. He stole 31 bases and scored 101 times, both team highs. Ichiro also earned his fourth consecutive Gold Glove for his stellar outfield defense. He was the reason to watch this team.

The 2004 season had one other position player I would be remiss to not mention. Bucky Jacobsen made his major league debut. Jacobsen left a lasting impression on the Seattle sports psyche. For Mariners fans desperate for future stars, his 9 homer, 9 doubles, and 28 RBI were an tantalizing preview of what the future could. Sadly it was not to be 2004 was the only season Jacobsen ever made it to the major leagues. His knees were too damage to sustain him as a professional athlete.

As already mentioned it wasn't just the hitters that struggled in 2004. The pitching staff was also terrible. The lowest ERA of any starter with at least 20 starts was 4.67. Jamie Moyer, a soft tosser who had put up several good season with the M's got destroyed. He gave up 44 homers in only 33 games started, which unsurprisingly was the worst in MLB. As a result his ERA ballooned from 3.27 in 2003 to 5.21 in 2004.

The season did see the rise and fall of Bobby Madritsch. At age 28 the pitcher made his major league debut. He started 11 games and posted a 3.27 ERA. Much like Bucky Jacobsen he filled fans with hope. And unfortunately much like Bucky Jacobsen it was not meant to be. Madritsch appeared again in 2005 before being let go and claimed by the Royals. The much tattooed pitcher capture the minds of Seattle for a summer and then disappeared in baseball obscurity.

It wasn't only the starting pitching that struggled for the Mariners in 2004. The bullpen was a disaster. The Mariners brought in Eddie Guardado from Minnesota to be the closer. Although Guardado's ERA, a low-ish 2.78, was not as bad as I remember he was still a major liability on the mound. Steady Eddie blew 7 games in 25 chances. 2003 relief star Shigetoshi Hasegawa fell off a cliff. His ERA exploded from a stunning 1.48 in 2003 to 5.16 in 2004. Other relievers with significant playing time in 2004 were J.J. Putz, Mike Myers, and Julio Mateo. They all had ERA over 4.50 and Putz and Mateo had lots of trouble giving up the long ball. They combined to allow 21 dingers to Mariners opponents.

After reading through all this it is probably clear that 2004 was not a good year for professional baseball in Seattle. The team couldn't hit or pitch well. Fan favorite players succumbed to the decline of age and new free agent signings failed to perform well. The highlight of 2004 was probably the debuts of Bucky Jacobsen and Bobby Madritsch, although sadly neither ever made a lasting impact for the team. 2004 will probably always be remembered as the beginning of the decade plus of bad Mariners baseball.

Sources: Baseball Reference, Fangraphs

Sixteen Years of Mariners Misery

The Buffalo Bills finally made it into the NFL playoffs as a Wild Card. They ended a drought of 17 years with making the playoffs this year. Their last trip was in 1999. The Bills had the longest consecutive stretch without making the playoffs of any major North American sports team. The new owners of that dubious title are the Seattle Mariners.

As a Mariners fan we have been treated to a miserable run of baseball in Seattle. The Mariners haven't made the playoffs since 2001, the same season they won 116 regular season games, but failed to make it to the World Series. The team did put together two solid season in 2002 and 2003 winning 93 games each time, but missing the playoffs, because the AL West was just plain stacked with talent. From 2004 onwards that Mariners have never managed to win 90+ games. The team has been stuck in an epic slump of bad to mediocre results.

Fans blame the playoffs drought on lots of stuff. Over the years favorite explanations for the misery have included ownership not caring about winning, the ballpark suppressing offense, managements refusal to spend money of big time free agents. Each of these has been debunked to various degrees. The Seattle Mariners failure is really just because their General Managers have made an astonishingly large number of bad moves over the last fourteen years and the team has had some really bad luck.

So to honor the end of the Bills streak and the Mariners taking over the top spot on the list for futility I thought it would be interesting to look back at each of the last sixteen Mariners seasons. I plan on breaking this up over several posts, but we will hit each of the seasons, from the lowest low to the highest medium.

2002-2003

As previously mentioned the Mariners won 93 games in both 2002 and 2003. The teams were solid and in almost any other year would have made the playoffs. Unfortunately the American League and the West Division were also having stellar years. In 2002 the A's and Yankees both won 103 games, and the Angels won 99. In 2003 the Yankees won 101 games, the A's won 96 games, and the Red Sox won 95. There were just too many really good teams in the American League in the early 2000's.

The offenses of 2002 and 2003 were anchored by Bret Boone, who was still in his prime. In 2003 he hit 35 HR, batted .294 and drove in 117 runs. The 2002 team saw John Olerud crush the ball at the plate. His triple slash was .300/.404/.490. The 2003 team had a rebound year by Edgar Martinez, who hit .294/.406/.489 in 145 games.

The defenses of both teams had Mike Cameron roaming centerfield and Ichiro Suzuki in right field. They were two of the best defenders of the era. The guys prevented tons runs with their gloves and arms. Homeruns were robbed and baserunners were thrown out.

The 2002 team saw Joel Pineiro put up the best season of his career. He posted a 3.24 ERA in 28 starts and 194.1 innings. The team also had Jamie Moyer put forward another great season with a 3.32 ERA over 34 starts and 230.2 innings.

The 2003 team had the rare luxury of five pitchers (J. Moyer, R. Franklin, J. Pinerio, F. Garcia, and G. Meche) starting 30 plus games. Jamie Moyer was the best of them starting 33 games and having a 3.27 ERA. Impressively the soft tossing Moyer recorded a WHIP of 1.075. Of the starters only Gil Meche didn't record over 200 innings.

Another pitching standout in 2003 was Shigetoshi Hasegawa. The relief pitcher posted a 1.48 ERA over 73 innings. Between June 3rd and August 17th, a total of 25 games, Shiggy didn't give up any runs. He was as dominate a reliever as the American League saw in 2003. Although he didn't strike many batters out he did get half of his outs with groundballs.

All told the 2002 and 2003 teams were very solid. They had good players and should have been able to make the playoffs. The teams could both hit and pitch. Unfortunately they ran into a historically strong American league field. At the time it didn't seem like the Mariners were about to enter a stretch a failure that would lead them to the longest active playoff drought in major North American sports.

Sources: Baseball Reference, Fangraphs

The Rise of Strikeouts

During the week of July 4th, on KJR, Seth Everett and Bill Krueger had a discussion about the rise of strikeouts in MLB over the last decade. They argued that the increase in strikeouts made the game less fun. More strikeouts means less balls in play, which means less athletic feats on defense or the base paths. Basically the rise of strikeouts has made the game more focused around the individual battle between the pitcher and the batter, which is slower and harder to enjoy for causal fans. From there the conversation progressed to their diagnosis of what was causing this rise in strikeouts. Both men agreed it was players chasing homeruns that caused more swings and misses. Their hypothesis got me interested and I started digging into strikeout, homerun, and walk trends over the last ten years.

First let me say, I agree with their original point. The huge increase in the number of strikeouts has made baseball more boring. Strikeouts are not rare or exciting anymore. Innings drag on when every at bat ends with a slow trot, with their head down in shame, back to the dugout. I would much rather see running catches in the outfield or diving stops in the infield. Watching tons of strikeouts every night gets boring.

Here are some stats to back up the rise of strikeouts. In 2016 teams averaged 8 strikeouts per game each. The batters for my favorite team, the Seattle Mariners, averaged over seven strikeouts per game every year between 2010 and 2016. The total number of strikeouts recorded in a season has risen every single year since 2007. There were 32,189 in 2007 and 38,982 in 2016. that is a rise of over 6,000 total strikeouts.

So Messrs. Everett and Krueger were right that strikeouts are raising every year and they are raising quickly. Are they also right that the chase of homeruns is driving the increase in strikeouts? I took a look at homerun totals in every year from 2007-2016. Teams hit 5,610 HR in 2016, the most in the last decade. However, unlike strikeouts HR totals have been a consistent trend. Instead they have been all over the place. The lowest of the last decade was in 2014 at only 4,186. The second highest was in 2009 at 5,042.

After reviewing these numbers I am convinced that the allure of hitting homeruns isn't causing players to strikeout. You can see this lack of a trend in Figure 1 where I plotted the league wide strikeout totals and homerun totals year over year. This plot makes it clear that homeruns aren't climbing at the same rate as strikeouts. Additionally I looked at the correlation between HR and K and found it to be a low positive 0.23. The means HR and K are tied together in a positive direction but only loosely. It is pretty clear to me that if people are striking out more often so they can hit homeruns they should rethink their strategy because homerun totals aren't rising.

Figure 1

 Next I took a look at the walk totals over the last decade. My theory was that maybe people were striking out more and also walking more often because they were just taking more pitches in general. The rise of the value of On Base Percentage (OBP) is well documented. Maybe players were trying to increase their OBP by drawing more walks (BB) and a side effect of this is an increase in strikeouts.

I found something shocking here. Walks are actually trending negatively. They are going the complete opposite way of strikeouts. In 2007 there were 16,079 BB. In 2016 there were only 15,088. Walk totals dropped every year between 2009 and 2014. They bottomed out at 14,020 in 2014. In that same year the league struck out the third most times in the decade. Figure 2 plots walk totals and strikeout totals every year between 2007 and 2016. You can clearly see the two trends are opposite. Additionally the two are barely negatively correlated at only -0.13. If players are striking out more often in an attempt to draw more walks they are failing badly.

Figure 2

 This all leads me to believe that the cause for the rise of strikeouts isn't related as much to the batters as it is to the pitchers. I think that the quality of pitching has been steadily increasing over the last decade and hitting has kept up. We already saw that strikeouts have risen and walks have dropped. It is easy to see how both of these phenomena could be attributed to increased pitching skill. Additionally the average fastball velocity in MLB has increased from 92 MPH in 2007 to 93.5 in 2016. Figure 3 shows the year over year change in average fastball velocity. Upping the speed of pitches makes hitting more difficult.

Figure 3

 Anecdotally the increase velocity can be seen by looking at the Seattle Mariners pitching staff. This year the Mariners have three relievers (Diaz, Altavilla, and Pazos) and one starter (Paxton) averaging over 96 MPH on their fastballs. It isn't shocking to see guys up near triple digits. In fact it has become the expectation that your relief pitchers are flame throwers. Guys who can't hit 95 need not apply for late inning relief.

Strikeouts have clearly risen over the last decade of major league baseball. The increased rate of guys failing to put the ball in play is making the game less fun to watch. The culprit for this hitting ineptitude doesn't appear to be batters chasing HR or trying to draw walks. Rather the overall talent of major league pitching has  steadily increased. Teams are featuring more hard throwers making it harder to put the ball in play. Batters have failed to keep pace with the quality of pitching in MLB which has resulted in more strikeouts and less walks and homeruns.

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference

Jarrod Dyson is Fun to Watch

Speed in baseball is a under-appreciated talent especially on the Mariners for the last several years. The previous GM focused so much on power that he forgot what an important skill can be. By collecting lumbering power hitters the Mariners sacrificed runs. Fast players are able take an extra base and they can score when other slower players would be stuck on second or third.

The Mariners new GM, Jerry Dipoto, has recognized how valuable speed can be. He has filled the Mariners roster with athletic players. The whole outfield can fly. For me this has made the Mariners offense fun to watch again. They are getting on base (9th highest OBP in MLB) and scoring runs (10th most runs in MLB). Of all the new guys, outfielder Jarrod Dyson has been my favorite to watch. His defining characteristic, and why I love watching him, is he super fast speed. He is like ridiculous, blink and you'll miss him fast.

Whenever Dyson gets on base it is almost a guarantee he is going to steal second base. His walks and singles are as good as doubles. There is always a threat he might steal third base, something not many guys attempt anymore. As proof consider this, he already has 12 stolen bases, which is on pace for 45 by the end of the year. In 2016 the Mariners team leader, Leonys Martin, had 24 over the whole year.  Also Dyson has only been caught stealing twice. That is an 86% success rate for stolen bases, which is good.

Dyson's speed has also helped the Mariners by letting him score frequently. Despite having only 28 hits, 12 walks, and 8 HBP, Dyson has already scored 24 runs. That means he is scoring a run half the time he reaches base. For comparison's sake, the highest rate in the league is Trea Turner at 62.1%. Jarrod Dyson is ranked 14th of all eligible players for his run scoring percentage. That is almost entirely because of his speed.

As already alluded to, the problem with Dyson is he held back by his poor hitting skill. He is only batting .217 this year with an OBP of .318. In his seven year career he is only a .256 hitter. When you consider how fast he reaches first base, that average is low. Dyson doesn't make good quality contact frequently enough (only 17.8% of his hits are line drives) and he doesn't have any power (only 9 career home runs). I wish there was a way to improve Dyson's skills with the bat because once he doesn't get on base he is electric.

Dyson's speed is a huge offensive asset for the Mariners. He is able to turn single into extra base hits by outrunning throws and stealing bases. He is able to score runs on other players hits when most players would still be stuck on base. His speed is fun to watch and makes the game exciting. However, it would be even better if he could just get on base more often. His poor hitting prevents him from being great.

Sources: Fangraphs

The NFL is Not a Paragon of Parity

The NFL sells their fans on the idea that the league is built on parity and equality more so than other professional sports leagues. The NFL has done such a good job convincing fans and journalists about this supposed parity that is has become conventional wisdom. People throw out that the league is built of parity frequently without having to defend their claim at all. The NFL certainly has superior equity when compared to say Spanish La Liga, the top tier of Spanish soccer. However, when the NFL is compared to other American professional sports leagues it doesn’t stand out as a stalwart of parity. The belief of the NFL system somehow leveling the playing field for all the teams is false.

Twelve teams make the NFL playoffs each year. Since 2007 all but three NFL teams have made the playoffs at least once (the three fan bases that haven't witnessed a playoff game in a decade are Los Angeles/St. Louis, Cleveland, and Buffalo). This looks like a good sign pointing to parity of play, but when we dig deeper into the distribution of playoff teams we find things aren't so rosy. 

Take a look at Figure 1 for a distribution of all the NFL playoff spots between 2007 and 2016. Of the 32 total NFL teams just 9 have taken up over 50% of all available playoffs spots. Even more illuminating, two teams, the Packers and Patriots, have been to the playoffs nine out of ten chances. Those two teams are eating up 15% of all available playoff spots just between themselves. If all things were equal they should have taken only 6%. The continued dominance of a few top teams has taken away potential playoff spots from the rest of the league.

Figure 1

All these stats do not prove that the NFL is not a leader in competitive equality on the field of play. The way to see this is to compare the NFL to other professional American sports leagues. The league often held up for its dominate teams that can just buy championships is MLB. Writers, and radio hosts often whine that MLB quality is open to the highest bid and small market teams are priced out of competition. So how does MLB compare to the NFL?

Between 2007 and 2011 eight teams made the MLB playoffs. For 2012 and on ten teams have made the playoffs. This ratio of playoff spots to league size closely compares to the NFL. Also much like the NFL 9 out of 30 MLB teams account of 50% of all available playoff spots. The top three teams, the Dodgers, Yankees, and Cardinals, have each been to the playoffs six times in the last ten years account for 20% of available playoff spots. MLB also has a few cellar dwellers. Three teams that have failed to make the playoffs since 2007, The Mariners (ouch), the Marlins, and the Padres (at least our natural rivals are struggling also). 

Figure 2 shows a similar breakdown of MLB playoff teams between 2007 and 2016. It is pretty clear that the NFL and MLB are very comparable in their frequency of playoff teams. In both leagues a few teams are perennial powers taking far more than their fair share of playoff berths. Instead of suppressing the post season appearances for the whole league, these champions are eating up spots left open by weaklings at the bottom that seem unable to get out of their losing ways. For both there is a large chunk of middling teams bouncing in and more frequently out of the playoffs. In both leagues the expected number of  appearances for any given team is right around 3 (3.75 in the NFL and 3 in MLB). In the NFL 16 teams have made the playoffs between 2 and 4 times, while the number of teams is 19 in MLB. This shows that large group of middle tier teams.

Figure 2

The NFL is not bad at keeping all their teams competitive, but comparing them to the supposed worst of the other American leagues at maintaining parity of play, MLB, the NFL is not a clear winner. In fact the NFL is very comparable to MLB. The NFL and MLB both have a few dominate teams that appear in the playoffs every year and a few terrible teams that just can't figure it out. However, most of the league just sits in the middle reaching the playoffs about as frequently as we would expect if all things were fair. The sports media needs to stop parroting the NFL's marketing message of it being some sort of paragon of parity. The facts just don't back this claim up.

Great Teams that Couldn't Get the Job Done

The result of last night's NBA Finals game was a shocker. Like I posted previously I was expecting a Golden State blow out win. They were at home and the holders of the NBA's greatest regular season record ever, at 73-9. The Cavs are a good team, but they aren't a historically good team, or at least they didn't appear that way on paper. But things didn't work out like I expected. Instead of a blowout the game was the closest of the entire series, being decided by only four points, and the victor was the away team. Yes, the Cleveland Lebron Jameses defeated the greatest regular season team ever and won the first major professional sports championship for Cleveland since Lady Bird Johnson was in the White House.

Major congratulations are owed to the Cleveland Cavaliers and the teams fans. I visited the city last year and it was surprisingly fine. The three locals I know are all great people, so I have to assume everyone is like that. The city deserves to enjoy the excitement and joy that comes with a championship. They have had to wait long enough.

On the other side the Golden State Warriors now join an infamous club of regular season powerhouses that were unable to get the job done in the playoffs.  The NFL, MLB, MLS, and now the NBA have now all had their regular season best record holders fail to win the championship, which is pretty weird when you think about it. Of the major professional leagues only the NHL's 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens managed to win the championship during their record breaking regular season. Though, even the NHL has had regular season greatness fail to achieve post season success. The 1995-96 Detroit Redwings have the records for the most regular season wins ever, at 62, but they failed to win the cup.

To help Golden State Warriors fans deal with the emotional pain of coming so close only to lose, here is a rundown of the other three teams that failed to seal the deal.

• The 2001 Seattle Mariners were the most depressing for me personally. The Mariners team feature the league MVP and Rookie of the Year in Japanese import Ichiro Suzuki. They almost had Bret Boone, John Olerud, and Mike Cameron. They were so fun to watch. The team was nver out of any game. You just knew they were going to put something together and get the win. Than they lost in the American League Championship Series to the New York Yankees. While the rest of the country was rooting for the Yankees because of 9/11 I was having my baseball heart broken. Watching a team this talented lose was rough. The team hasn't made the playoffs since.
• The 2007 New England Patriots were the most fun team to watch blow it. Their team was full of smug and arrogant players and their coach, Bill Belechick, is one of the biggest assholes in pro sports. The team was easy to hate. To add to the fun, the Super Bowl had one of the most memorable moments ever when quarterback Eli Manning broke a tackle to avoid a sack and then threw a pass to wide receiver David Tyree who caught the ball on the side of his helmet to keep the Giants alive in the game. Watching the Patriots lose is always fun, but watching them lose on the biggest stage in dramatic fashion is the best.
• I have no firsthand knowledge of the 1998 Los Angeles Galaxy. It was well before I, or for that matter the rest of the country, had discovered my love of soccer. The team recorded 24 wins in a 32 games season, good for 68 points. Which when you convert to the imperial measurement system equates to really good. However, even with this sterling record, LA didn't even make it to the MLS cup. They lost in the conference championship to Chicago.

Seth Smith, Professional Hitter.

Watch any Mariners game that Seth Smith is playing in and you will surely hear the announcers talk about how he is a professional hitter. They will talk about how his batting average isn't great but he gives you a quality at bat and drives up the opposing pitchers pitch count by battling in every at bat. Listening to these baseball prattlers it is easy to think that they are using the professional hitter moniker as a way to apologize for his mediocre batting average. It is like they wants to fans to know that despite his middling traditional stats Mr. Smith isn't that bad without providing any quantitative examples. The things is instead of using subjective descriptors of Smitty's (What can I say? Mariners nicknames are boring) skills they could just as easily shower Seth Smith with commendatory remarks by just listing his nontraditional stats.

First and foremost is his On Base Percentage (OBP). This year as of 6/9/16 Seth Smith has a .378 OBP. That means he is getting on base by a hit, walk, or hit by pitch 37.8% of the time. That is tied for first, with Nelson Cruz, for all Mariners hitters. What I am trying to say is Seth Smith is good at getting on base.

Another stats that highlights Seth Smith's quality is his about Walk Percentage, which sits at 13.9% so far this year. That stat shows clearly that all those at bats he is battling for are actually turning into something more than pitch count uppers. They are turning into base on balls. Seth Smith gets walked at the highest rate of anyone on the team. In fact it is currently good enough for 15th in the whole major leagues, tied with Joey Votto. Like I said before Seth Smith is good at getting walked.

Smitty also has some power. He will never be Boom Stick, but he can get a respectable amount of extra base hits. He is currently slugging .412, which is .38 below his career slugging percentage. We have seen him hit homers this year and I expect we will see him start hitting more doubles. Even if he doesn't a .400 SLG coupled with a .380 OBP is a very respectable .780 OPS. There have been years that M's fans would have killed for a starter with a .780 OPS.

Basically what I am trying to say here is the Seattle Mariners outfielders Seth Smith is a good hitter. He treats his plate appearances with the singular purpose of trying to get on base and he succeeds at a high rate. You could even call him a professional hitter, but just make it clear that it is a compliment and provide some objective evidence.

Sources: Fangraphs.com

We Need To Talk About June 2, 2016

Hello, earthlings/Kevin's friends! It is I, Natalie, the Mariners' prodigal daughter, who brings you great baseball news from San Diego, California.

That game last night was AWESOME. I'm not going to lie, the 1st inning was rough to sit through. At first, I felt some hope. Cano pulled a Cano. We got a home run. It was lovely. I was the lone Mariners fan in my nosebleed section in a sea of Padres gear. The Padres scored 4 runs in the bottom of the 1st, which was annoying, but not something that we couldn't come back from. After all, in the last few games, the M's scored 6 runs, 16 runs, 9 runs, and 5 runs. Being behind by 3 is no longer something to stress out about. This ball club can handle that kind of deficit. 

Then, in the second, Cruz hit a bomb. It was 2-4. Yesssss. Okay. We can do this. We're still in this game. Then, that feeling started to dissipate in the 4th and 5th innings. Miley and Montgomery's pitching was lackluster. Rosales-Solarte-Norris-Rosales-Rea-Jay-Myers-Kemp score. All I could think was "not again". I started to have flashbacks of Wednesday night's game, which Paxton and Peralta destroyed all my hopes and dreams. I had to slink out of Petco in shame after that game.

The top of the 6th is when things started to get interesting. Big Booty Seags (just go with it) hits a line drive out to right field, which allows Smith and Cano to get home, and advances himself to second, Cruz to 3rd. Have you heard the good news about our lord and savior, Dae-Ho Lee? Lee hits a big, fat, glorious homer to bring Cruz, Seager and himself home to Papa Servais. In the 7th, Big Booty Seags, Dae-Ho Lee Moley, Chis "I made super tasty wine" Iannetta, Stefen Romero, O'Malley, Aoki, and Guti literally made my head explode at Petco Park. Line drive after line drive and score after score left me SCREAMING LIKE A CRAZY PERSON in section 315 at Petco Park because HOLY SHIT, I'M HERE IN PERSON. I start doing the laugh-cry thing because I can't believe in two innings we just scored 14 runs. 

As we get to the 7th, the nervousness resets with Seager's error and Kemp scoring. Momentum can be great, but it is so fragile. One error can crush everything or set off a domino effect across any team. One wrong move and you can lose your mojo. Benoit manages to hold the Padres off in the 8th. Fernando Rodney makes an appearance at the top of the 9th. He holds off the M's from scoring again in the ninth, so all my concentration goes on sending Cishek good thoughts. "I believe in you!" I think over and over again to myself. I shout it from my seat. I tweet it out over and over again. I was determined to not let this team's past performance mar the game I was watching. You could feel the electricity radiating from the M's dugout. Solarte stuck out. Upton out at first. Norris strikes out swinging. And the Mariners, the beautifully flawed but ever hopeful Mariners, had their greatest comeback in franchise history. And I was there for it. I saw it with my own eyes. 

This is my first baseball blog post of my whole life, so be gentle while I try to figure out my voice. A lot of people (aka a lot of you) may be cynical about the 2016 Mariners. We've heard years and years promising we were going to be better, without ever getting better. 2015 was a hard year for all of us. But, I am forever an avid and hopeful Mariners fan, every year. You never know when you're going to witness greatness. It could happen. It did happen. I was happy to be there. Go M's!