The Rise of Strikeouts

During the week of July 4th, on KJR, Seth Everett and Bill Krueger had a discussion about the rise of strikeouts in MLB over the last decade. They argued that the increase in strikeouts made the game less fun. More strikeouts means less balls in play, which means less athletic feats on defense or the base paths. Basically the rise of strikeouts has made the game more focused around the individual battle between the pitcher and the batter, which is slower and harder to enjoy for causal fans. From there the conversation progressed to their diagnosis of what was causing this rise in strikeouts. Both men agreed it was players chasing homeruns that caused more swings and misses. Their hypothesis got me interested and I started digging into strikeout, homerun, and walk trends over the last ten years.

First let me say, I agree with their original point. The huge increase in the number of strikeouts has made baseball more boring. Strikeouts are not rare or exciting anymore. Innings drag on when every at bat ends with a slow trot, with their head down in shame, back to the dugout. I would much rather see running catches in the outfield or diving stops in the infield. Watching tons of strikeouts every night gets boring.

Here are some stats to back up the rise of strikeouts. In 2016 teams averaged 8 strikeouts per game each. The batters for my favorite team, the Seattle Mariners, averaged over seven strikeouts per game every year between 2010 and 2016. The total number of strikeouts recorded in a season has risen every single year since 2007. There were 32,189 in 2007 and 38,982 in 2016. that is a rise of over 6,000 total strikeouts.

So Messrs. Everett and Krueger were right that strikeouts are raising every year and they are raising quickly. Are they also right that the chase of homeruns is driving the increase in strikeouts? I took a look at homerun totals in every year from 2007-2016. Teams hit 5,610 HR in 2016, the most in the last decade. However, unlike strikeouts HR totals have been a consistent trend. Instead they have been all over the place. The lowest of the last decade was in 2014 at only 4,186. The second highest was in 2009 at 5,042.

After reviewing these numbers I am convinced that the allure of hitting homeruns isn't causing players to strikeout. You can see this lack of a trend in Figure 1 where I plotted the league wide strikeout totals and homerun totals year over year. This plot makes it clear that homeruns aren't climbing at the same rate as strikeouts. Additionally I looked at the correlation between HR and K and found it to be a low positive 0.23. The means HR and K are tied together in a positive direction but only loosely. It is pretty clear to me that if people are striking out more often so they can hit homeruns they should rethink their strategy because homerun totals aren't rising.

Figure 1

 Next I took a look at the walk totals over the last decade. My theory was that maybe people were striking out more and also walking more often because they were just taking more pitches in general. The rise of the value of On Base Percentage (OBP) is well documented. Maybe players were trying to increase their OBP by drawing more walks (BB) and a side effect of this is an increase in strikeouts.

I found something shocking here. Walks are actually trending negatively. They are going the complete opposite way of strikeouts. In 2007 there were 16,079 BB. In 2016 there were only 15,088. Walk totals dropped every year between 2009 and 2014. They bottomed out at 14,020 in 2014. In that same year the league struck out the third most times in the decade. Figure 2 plots walk totals and strikeout totals every year between 2007 and 2016. You can clearly see the two trends are opposite. Additionally the two are barely negatively correlated at only -0.13. If players are striking out more often in an attempt to draw more walks they are failing badly.

Figure 2

 This all leads me to believe that the cause for the rise of strikeouts isn't related as much to the batters as it is to the pitchers. I think that the quality of pitching has been steadily increasing over the last decade and hitting has kept up. We already saw that strikeouts have risen and walks have dropped. It is easy to see how both of these phenomena could be attributed to increased pitching skill. Additionally the average fastball velocity in MLB has increased from 92 MPH in 2007 to 93.5 in 2016. Figure 3 shows the year over year change in average fastball velocity. Upping the speed of pitches makes hitting more difficult.

Figure 3

 Anecdotally the increase velocity can be seen by looking at the Seattle Mariners pitching staff. This year the Mariners have three relievers (Diaz, Altavilla, and Pazos) and one starter (Paxton) averaging over 96 MPH on their fastballs. It isn't shocking to see guys up near triple digits. In fact it has become the expectation that your relief pitchers are flame throwers. Guys who can't hit 95 need not apply for late inning relief.

Strikeouts have clearly risen over the last decade of major league baseball. The increased rate of guys failing to put the ball in play is making the game less fun to watch. The culprit for this hitting ineptitude doesn't appear to be batters chasing HR or trying to draw walks. Rather the overall talent of major league pitching has  steadily increased. Teams are featuring more hard throwers making it harder to put the ball in play. Batters have failed to keep pace with the quality of pitching in MLB which has resulted in more strikeouts and less walks and homeruns.

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference

The Sounders Should Keep Their New Formation

On July 19th, after falling behind by three goals in only 50 minutes against D.C. United , the Sounders substituted Nouhou Tolo and Kelvin Leerdam into the game in the 54th minute. These players took over the left and right defensive back positions from Brad Evans and Joevin Jones, who each moved up to an attacking mid-field role. That new formation resulted in four unanswered goals for the Sounders in the final 36 minutes. Moved forward on the field and relieved of his defensive duties Jones started making plays and notched up two assists. Brad Evans also got involved with the offense netting a goal of his own. The new formation worked great against D.C United and resulted in a historic come from behind victory.

Head coach Brian Schmetzer decided to keep the line up in the Sounders next match against the San Jose Earthquakes on July 23rd. The decision to stay with what worked the week before paid off for the Rave Green yet again. Seattle had a sustained attack against San Jose and looked more alive on offense than they have most of the season. Best of all Seattle scored another three goals and held their opponent scoreless grabbing a win.

So, in the roughly game and a half that Seattle has played with Brad Evans and Joevin Jones as attacking mid-fielders, instead of their more common defensive back positions, the team has scored seven goals and given up none. I think that much of the credit for this offensive explosion has to go to the new formation. It puts a better defender, in Nouhou, at an important position and allows Jones to focus on what he does best, driving up the left side and crossing balls in front of the zone. It also makes room for newcomer Kelvin Leerdam to get on the field and, admittedly based on a small sample size, put him in a position to maximize his contributions to the team.

Jones has had a hot and cold season. On the good side he has notched nine assists, almost all of them on crosses from the left side of the field into the box. Much of this is because so far this season the Sounders attack has focused almost exclusively on this tactic. They relentlessly push the ball up the left side to Jones and give him opportunities to cross it. With as many chances as he has had the nine assists aren't as impressive. Additionally Jones plays left back, a position that requires good defensive skill, something Jones has failed to show consistently in 2017. Number 33 is regularly out of position on defense, often because he hasn't hustled back from the previous crossing attempt. This poor defense has let to several goals by Sounders opponents this year.

The player replacing Joevin Jones at left back in both games is rookie Nouhou Tolo. Watching him play it is obvious he is raw and full of energy. He often makes aggressive decisions and has exaggerated effort, but it has been effective. Nouhou (who at only 20 years old has apparently already earned the right to go by only his first name) is usually in the right spot and he is willing to tackle to make a stop. He is already a better defender than Jones and with more experience he should continue to get better at defense. The one things I dislike about Nouhou's play is his continued attempts to score a goal from 40 yards away. The shots are always errant and have no chance of working. Again this is something coaching and experience should fix.

The other big change in the new formation is the addition of right back Kelvin Leerdam. The Sounders just recently signed Leerdam and the game against D.C. was his first with the team. He made his presence felt and did a great job shutting down the right side. Against San Jose Leerdam was even more impactful. He continued to play solid defense and use his speed move all around the field and shut down attackers. In his limited playing time he appears to be a very solid defender.

Also, Leerdam's massive throw ins led directly to two of the goals. Speaking of those throw ins, wow they are amazing. The guy can huck it like no one else I can remember on the Sounders. He can turn an out of bounds throw in into basically a corner kick. This is a huge advantage for the Sounders and should continue to lead to goal scoring chances.

Moving Jones away from the left back position and into an attacking role allows him to focus on offense and it mitigates the risk of him not being in the correct defensive position. The change also gives the team room for Nouhou and Leerdam to play and both of these players are superior defenders to Jones. Leerdam also brings his strong throw ins to the team boosting their offense. Overall the position change improves the teams chances of winning and I for one hope they stick with it.

Tony Romo Did the Right Thing

In April, coming off a major back injury that caused him to miss most of the 2016 season, veteran Quarterback Tony Romo announced his retirement from the Dallas Cowboys and the NFL. Romo has a gig as a color commentator lined up at CBS. At 36 years old Romo is at the point of his life and career where most quarterbacks begin to regress. Father time and the abuse of playing professional football catch up to them and their skills diminish. So, his decision isn't entirely unexpected. That said there were many that were shocked at Romo's decision. There are several NFL teams with bad to mediocre quarterbacks slated to started in 2017. More than a few of these would probably have been interested in giving Romo one last chance to start in the NFL. Tony Romo did the right thing by resisting the temptation to get back out on the gridiron and instead retiring.

Even in a league as beset with injuries and medical trauma as the NFL Tony Romo stands out as someone whose body took a severe beating. In 2010 Romo broke his left collarbone for the first time. He would go on the break the same bone twice more in his career, both in 2015. Romo also broke parts of his back three times in his career, in 2013, 2014, and 2016. NFL.com summed it up pretty well with this quote, "During his career, Romo played through broken fingers and ribs, a broken back and a punctured lung. He rushed his recovery from broken clavicles and fingers, often finishing games with a significant limp or hunch."

The glorification of Romo's toughness is a symptom of the NFL's dangerous worship of those players willing to continually put their bodies at grave risk for the good of the game. Romo should have probably retired years ago. Breaking your back once should be a wakeup call. When you break it a second time it is a flashing red siren to get out and let someone else take the physical punishment.  Waiting until now, after his third broken back, to retire is better late than never I supposes.

Hopefully Romo has a long and happy life outside football. I hope that Romo realizes how lucky he is to be able to walk and function as a relatively normal adult and decides to use his new position as a NFL game broadcaster to speak about the dangers of the NFL and the sacrifice that players make for the chance to entertain us.

I hope that Romo doesn't use his influence to voice a glorification of the violence in the NFL and the culture of toughness and manliness that it perpetuates. Americans need to see Romo as an example of someone making a decision based on his own personal health and celebrate it, not question his desire to win a championship. Romo did the right thing by retiring.

On Markelle Fultz

Some of you may realize that Markelle Fultz played basketball for the University of Washington last year, but many of you probably don't. Personally I have only a fleeting understand of who Markelle Fultz is and what makes him good at basketball. If it wasn't for Dave "Softy" Mauler on KJR, I probably wouldn't know anything about the young guard. That is a sad state of affairs because Markelle Fultz was just drafted number one overall by the Philadelphia 76ers. We should be excited and celebrating another Husky great being recognized by the NBA.

I never got to know Fultz as a player. The basketball team he was on was so bad that it was unwatchable. The Huskies routinely got embarrassed by their opponents. The team was so bad last year that the University fired long time head coach Lorenzo Romar and punted on the opportunity to have the best high school senior in the country come play for them in 2017. The team essentially quit playing defense halfway through the conference season. The only potential draw to watching them play was Fultz's NBA caliber talent, but that just wasn't enough to make me care about him or the team.

Don't get me wrong I am glad for the young man and I don't begrudge him at all. I hope that he has a spectacular professional career. However, I won't be rooting for him or following his exploits any closer than I do any other random NBA starter. He has no connection to me at all. I will never look back on the glory days of Fultz. I will never opine with friends about his place in the Pantheon of Husky greats. In fact, I expect, my only memory of him will be that he was drafted first overall by the Philadelphia 76ers.

On Colin Kaepernick's Lack of a Job

Colin Kaepernick was once a star quarterback in the NFL. In 2012, after he took over from Alex Smith, he led the 49ers to the Super Bowl. Although his team lost that game to the Ravens, Kaepernick had made a mark on the NFL fandom. He followed up his breakout Super Bowl run with two very solid years in 2013 and 2014. In those two years he threw for a combined 6,566 yds, 40 TD, 18 INT. Kaepernick also contributed with his legs rushing for 1,163 yds and another 5 TD. Although not elite, Kaepernick was definitely top tier, but then things fell apart in 2015. The 49ers and Kaepernick struggled to start the season going 2-6. The coaching staff benched Kaepernick after that and he eventually underwent surgery on his shoulder, ending the season on the IR. 

All that brings us to last season. Coming off his injury and the worst statistical season of his career, Kaepernick entered 2016 fighting for the starting job. That by itself would have been an interesting storyline. Then during a preseason game Kaepernick decided to sit in protest during the national anthem and all hell broke loose. Kaepernick was protesting the treatment of ethnic minorities in the United States. The quarterback's protest continue in various forms throughout the year. He pissed off a lot of fans, but inspired others. Regardless of what you think about his protest it worked in getting people talking about the issues and the place of political action in sports.

Coming into the 2017 season Kaepernick is a free agent able to sign to play with any NFL team that wants him. Several analysts, former teammates, and former coaches have said that Kaepernick still has the skills to play in the NFL. Additionally NFL contracts are not guaranteed so if any team signed him and found out he couldn't play they could cut him with little or no penalty. However, so far, no NFL team has offered him a contract. There could be lots of reasons for this, but one of them is definitely because of Kaepernick's decision to not honor the flag during the swinging of the national anthem before games.

Some teams like the Jets and Broncos are in great need of a quarterback and if only football related matters were considered should clearly sign Kaepernick. However, both of those two teams are run by strongly opinionated Republicans with a strong sense of nationalism and I think both were clearly biased against Kaepernick because of their political leanings.

(The Broncos main decision maker is John Elway, who is the Executive Vice President of Football Operations and the General Manager.  He is also a lifelong Republican and recently attended Donald Trump's inauguration. Elway also doesn't have a problem with mixing football and politics. As a recent example Elway wrote an endorsement of Neil Gorsuch to the United States Senate Judiciary Committee on Broncos letterhead. 

Woody Johnson is the owner of the New York Jets. He is a very active owner and is often involved in football personnel decisions. He is also is big time Republican donor and Donald Trump supporter. Johnson was rewarded for his party loyalty with being nominated to be ambassador to the United Kingdom. Johnson doesn’t strike me as someone that would put up with a person disrespecting the flag he clearly loves.)

As the decision makers for their respective teams John Elway and Woody Johnson have the right to not employee Colin Kaepernick, but when they make that choice it hurts their team's chances of winning. As long as they are honest that they chose to not sign the former 49ers QB because of his activism and not because of his football skills I don't see a problem with it. Just don't lie to us and him by saying it is a football decision.

It appears that other teams have chosen not to sign Kaepernick, not because of their own political beliefs, but because of the potential media and fan backlash that could result. They are afraid, right or wrong, that all the attention and controversy that comes with Kaepernick outweighs the potential football benefits. They view him as a potential distraction that would get in the way of the team concentrating of winning football games. They very well could be right, but for a team like the Houston Texans it seems like a gamble worth making. Without Kaepernick they are going into the 2017 with Tom Savage (someguy) or DeShaun Watson (a rookie) as their quarterbacks. They are taking the easy way out and hurting their teams in the process.

The third and final reason that teams with a need at the quarterback position could be avoiding Kaepernick is money he may be asking for. This reason is a lot more speculative as Kaepernick hasn't publicly stated how much money he wants to make. The assumption is that teams, like the Seattle Seahawks, that need a backup QB aren't willing to pay Kaepernick the amount of money he is asking for. He may be asking for starter money or even high end back up money. The Seahawks have a great starting quarterback in Russell Wilson and hope to never see their backup play a meaningful snap in 2017. If Kaepernick is asking for a large contract it doesn't make sense for a team like the Seahawks to sign him. Their salary cap limited resources are better spent on players at other positions.

All that being said and discussed I think it is a shame that Colin Kaepernick hasn't been signed to an NFL team yet. He is an upstanding citizen with strong well thought out political beliefs. He is someone willing to sacrifice for what he believes in and make very public and civil defenses of those beliefs. He should be a role model for us all. He should not be chastised for his actions.

Personally I was hoping the Seahawks would sign him. If the money was the issue I completely understand, but if it was because of the distraction factor or the front offices political beliefs shame on them. They should be able to see through nonviolent off field issues and make decisions that help the football team win.

For any of the NFL teams avoiding Kaepernick because of their politics or fear of distractions, especially the Jets and Broncos, it is a shame and has exposed yet again the hypocrisy of the NFL morality. Teams regularly employ wife beaters, drunk drivers, and other dangerous offenders, but they won't pay a brave nonviolent activist. Instead of trying to understand Kaepernick and the issues he brought up they are choosing to hide behind the shield of the NFL like cowards.

Jarrod Dyson is Fun to Watch

Speed in baseball is a under-appreciated talent especially on the Mariners for the last several years. The previous GM focused so much on power that he forgot what an important skill can be. By collecting lumbering power hitters the Mariners sacrificed runs. Fast players are able take an extra base and they can score when other slower players would be stuck on second or third.

The Mariners new GM, Jerry Dipoto, has recognized how valuable speed can be. He has filled the Mariners roster with athletic players. The whole outfield can fly. For me this has made the Mariners offense fun to watch again. They are getting on base (9th highest OBP in MLB) and scoring runs (10th most runs in MLB). Of all the new guys, outfielder Jarrod Dyson has been my favorite to watch. His defining characteristic, and why I love watching him, is he super fast speed. He is like ridiculous, blink and you'll miss him fast.

Whenever Dyson gets on base it is almost a guarantee he is going to steal second base. His walks and singles are as good as doubles. There is always a threat he might steal third base, something not many guys attempt anymore. As proof consider this, he already has 12 stolen bases, which is on pace for 45 by the end of the year. In 2016 the Mariners team leader, Leonys Martin, had 24 over the whole year.  Also Dyson has only been caught stealing twice. That is an 86% success rate for stolen bases, which is good.

Dyson's speed has also helped the Mariners by letting him score frequently. Despite having only 28 hits, 12 walks, and 8 HBP, Dyson has already scored 24 runs. That means he is scoring a run half the time he reaches base. For comparison's sake, the highest rate in the league is Trea Turner at 62.1%. Jarrod Dyson is ranked 14th of all eligible players for his run scoring percentage. That is almost entirely because of his speed.

As already alluded to, the problem with Dyson is he held back by his poor hitting skill. He is only batting .217 this year with an OBP of .318. In his seven year career he is only a .256 hitter. When you consider how fast he reaches first base, that average is low. Dyson doesn't make good quality contact frequently enough (only 17.8% of his hits are line drives) and he doesn't have any power (only 9 career home runs). I wish there was a way to improve Dyson's skills with the bat because once he doesn't get on base he is electric.

Dyson's speed is a huge offensive asset for the Mariners. He is able to turn single into extra base hits by outrunning throws and stealing bases. He is able to score runs on other players hits when most players would still be stuck on base. His speed is fun to watch and makes the game exciting. However, it would be even better if he could just get on base more often. His poor hitting prevents him from being great.

Sources: Fangraphs

NFL Passer Rating Data

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