Below you can see a list of the last 20 winners (Before I had even pulled up their NBA stats a trend about the winners struck me , 5 of the last 20 winner were from Duke.) along with their career NBA stats. Career stats aren't much help for the three most recent winners. Of those three only one, Tyler Hansbrough, has finished an entire NBA season. The other two are still in the middle of their first. Although some might say Blake Griffin has already proved himself, it is just to soon to judge the success these guys have had. So, if we only look at the other 17 winners, what do the numbers tell us about college success translating into professional success?
Of the 17 past winner I examined only three can be considered busts at the professional level, J.J. Reddick, Jason Williams and Calbert Cheaney (weird, two of the three are from Duke). Considering Jason Williams a flop comes with one large caveat, he was in a life threatening motorcycle accident which cut his career way short. Who knows what he would have done had he not been so severely injured? So, if we remove Jason Williams from the list of flops, we are left with only two. Depending on your definition of a bust, it could even be argued that Cheaney wasn't one. Despite his meager 9.5 ppg, he did managed to hang around the league for 13 years. That just leaves poor J.J. Reddick all by his lonesome. However, for this exercise I am going to consider all three of these guys busts, giving us 3 out of 17 Naismith Award winners whose NBA career's just didn't meet expectations. 3 out of 17 is actually a pretty good ratio. That mean 14 of 17, or 82%, past player of the years had successful NBA careers.
That ratio of busts tells us, if you win the Naismith award you are pretty much a lock for a successful run in the NBA. Knowing that you are most likely going to be able to compete at a high level and make a good living has got to be encouraging for this years crop of potential Naismith winners. However, if you are a fan or a front office type you probably want more from your big name draftee. You want a genuine super star.
Lets look at that side of things, the guys that had down right terrific NBA careers. Maybe not HOF worthy, but still note worthy. Well if you look at the names and the numbers of the list, I think you can safely say 8 of the 17 qualify. These guys are: Larry Johnson, Glenn Robinson, Marcus Camby, Tim Duncan, Antawn Jamison, Elton Brand, Andrew Bogut and Kevin Durant. I think you could also say that there are several guys on the bubble, guys like Christian Laettner and Kenyon Martin. Lets just stick with 8 of 17. This ratio is good for 47%. That means roughly half of the past Naismith Award winners have gone on to have terrific NBA careers.
This is much more encouraging for the fans and front offices. If your team take a Naismith Award winner you are taking a pretty safe bet. 82% gone on the successful careers and 50% turn into stars. I am sure it is also a confidence boost for the guys, like Fredette and Sullinger, who are thinking about their potential basketball lives after college. After watching all the other busts taken in the NBA draft (Here is looking at you Robert Swift, Johan Petro and Mohammed Sene) I think most front office guys would jump at those kind of ratios.
Sources: The Naismith Awards, Basketball Reference
I think calling JJ Reddick a bust is a huge mistake. Reddick was not expected to be a good NBA player at all and was drafted high only because of the ridiculously weak draft that he came out in. People kind of expected him to wash out after his rookie contract expired, but he has proven himself to be the most consistent if not the best shooting guard on the Magic.
ReplyDeleteI can understand your opinion. I was waivering on JJ when I was writing this. I thought about putting in a cavaet for him also. What finally swayed me to bust was that he did win national player of the year and as a national player of the year you are supposed to be great, which he has not been. I think the key here is the word selection. How about saying he is mediocre or passable?
ReplyDeleteAlso I think Reddick is an interesting case study because I see Jimmer Fredette following a similar career path.
National player of the year only applies to college, and most scouts at the time seem to rank him as fairly average if I recall. Sure, he isn't the caliber NBA player you'd expect from the national player of the year, but that was a strange year without many upper echelon prospects. Regardless, Fredette looks like he's got a Reddick career ahead of him, but with a slightly more varied game.
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