Getting to Know the New Neighbors

 

This year, for the first time since 1994, the American League West is going to be getting a new team. It will no longer be a four team race. The Houston Astros will be joining the Mariners, Athletics, Angels and Rangers to challenge for the coveted playoff spot. As Mariners fans and longtime members of the AL West we should celebrate the arrival of our new rival. Unless something goes total terribly disastrously wrong, for the first time in years the M’s won’t be the worst team in the division. We should also spend some time getting to know our new opponents. After all, we are going to see them 18 times this year.

So, first let’s state this simply, the Astros are terrible. They have lost 105+ games each of the last two seasons and haven’t had a winning record since 2008. During that time the team has consistently traded away all their players that show potential (Michael Bourne, Hunter Pence, Wandy Rodriguez, Jed Lowrie, the list goes on and on). This has basically left them with a roster absent of major league talent.

So, what about the players? There must be some of them that are worth knowing. Well maybe one. Last year their lone all-star representative was 2B Jose Altuve, who had a wRC+ of 104 and played pretty mediocre to bad defense. That performance is very exciting, but like I said before, the Astros have basically traded away everyone worth knowing. However, as a fellow AL West member, we should still take a look at the roster.

In the starting rotation the most notable names are Lucas Harrell and Bud Norris. Harrell is the better of the two, with a lower ERA and xFIP, but Norris gets more of the press. This is because Norris does a good job striking people out, while Harrell doesn’t.  They also signed Phil Humber, the guy that threw a perfect game against the M’s last year and ended the season off a major league roster. So, who knows what they have in him. After those three they are definitely going to have other players starting games.

In the bullpen the situation is no better. Last year’s best reliever, Wilton Lopez, is now with the Colorado Rockies. Like I said before everyone leaves Houston. The best players left is Wesley Wright, who strikes people out at a good rate, minimizes walks and minimizes home runs. So, hopefully he will be a bright spot. In other hilarious news, Bill Bavasi draft bust Josh Fields, is on the roster.

The position players finish up this terrible roster the way it began, with a bunch of nothing. The aforementioned Jose Altuve should be solid enough and probably an All-Star again (because of the every team has to have one rule). After him the team does have Chris Carter and Carlos Pena (both former A’s, weird) who should provide Homers and strikeouts in abundance. Infielders Tyler Greene and Marwin Gonzalez, managed to compile 0.0 WAR last year in a combined 500+ PA, so that is something. Not just anybody can play at a perfectly replacement level for an entire season, and the Astros have two such palyers!

There you have it. The Houston Astros are the new team in the AL West. I would call them a competitor, but that might be too strong of a word. Unless something changes or some players pop in an unexpectedly good way they look to be awful yet again. Take comfort Mariners fans there is finally somebody worse off than us!

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, Astros.com

What is the deal with James Loney?

What is the deal with James Loney? Back in the mid 2000’s, along with Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier, he was one of the young players that was supposed to help turn the Dodgers into a perennial contender. Kemp and Ethier turned into the stars they were projected to, while Loney didn’t. Sure, he hasn’t been terrible, he has a career wRC+ of 103 and is considered a solid defender, but he has been a far cry from what was expected. He is especially frustrating if you consider he is a first baseman, a position that traditionally has good or great offensive players.

At 6’3” and 220lb, Loney definitely has the body of a good player. He is tall and appears to be in good shape. He has just never been able to transform that physicality into success at the major league level. He is a great example of a jeans salesman (watch Moneyball, you’ll get the reference). It just looks like he should be a good player.

There is definitely more to the perception that he should be good then just his athletic body. Loney’s minor league career seemed to indicate major league success. As a minor leaguer he had a triple slash of .296/.363/.430. His potential landed him on the Baseball America top 50 prospects list three of his five seasons (if you don’t count 2007 when he was no longer a prospect). In 2006, during a half season with the Las Vegas 51’s, Loney hit .380/.426/.546. That was enough to get him called up to the big leagues where he hit .284/.342/.559. The future certainly looked bright.

Looking at that major league career there are positive signs as well. During a strikeout crazy era Loney owns a career K% of 12.2%, which according to Fangraphs is great. Over the three season span of 2010-2012, Lonely was seventh in the league in line drive percentage (LD%). Normally a high LD% translates into on field success. Some of the other leaders are Joey Votto, Joe Mauer and Freddie Freeman. Additionally, he makes contact at an above average rate, 87.9% of the time he swings. The numbers tell us he avoids strikeouts, makes contact at a high rate and the type of contact he makes is good. All this should lead to success.

So, he looks like he should be good, he did well in the minors and his peripheral stats show signs of promise, why is he bad? Maybe James Loney is just unlucky. The thing is, in baseball, even luck can be measured. BABIP does exactly this. According to Fangraphs, an average BABIP is .290-.310. James Loney has a career BABIP of .305, right around average. I think this is enough to discredit that he is unlucky. That leaves us still lost as to why he isn’t good.

Not being able to figure it out with body type, minor or major league stats, the best guess I can offer is a lack of bat speed. Big toned muscles don’t generate power alone, basically, bat speed generates power. People generate bat speed in all different ways (quick wrists, huge pecs and arms, powerful hips, etc), but without it you just don’t hit for power. I am not a doctor, a physical trainer or a professional scout, so I couldn’t tell you exactly about his bat speed. However, I can tell you having low bat speed is the most likely reason why someone cant hit for power.

So, why isn’t James Loney good? Unfortunately, I can’t tell you for sure. All I can do is offer guesses, which is a pretty disappointing outcome for a blog post (especially sense you had to read so many words to get here). However, based on his ability to consistently land on major league rosters I am not the only who confused by his lack of success. The professional evaluators continue to see something in him. James Loney’s lack of success will continue to be a mystery.

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference

A Few Tidbits from Around the Web

As a reminder that I still love my readers (hopefully plural) here are a bunch of links to interesting sports things around the web. Click away.

• They're back! The always fun Seattle Mariners TV commercials have been released for 2013.
• A great read about one of the best pitchers of the last ten years, Roy Halladay.
• John McGrath's take on Percy Harvin, the Seahawks newest WR.
• Alex, from Seattle Sportsnet, does a great job of outlining everything wrong with ROOT (except he forgot to highlight Dave Sims)

Is Andrew Andrews Good?

Overall this season the University of Washington's Men's Basketball Team has failed ot draw me in. They have played a sloppy low scoring style that has resulted in  largely disappointing games. The starters have been streaky. Some games they will play like future NBA players and the next they will shoot 1-11 with more turnovers then assists. Despite all this one thing about the team has sparked my interest, red-shirt freshman Andrew Andrews.

Andrews is a 6'2" PG from Portland Oregon. Gohuskies.com describes him "as a tough, fearless point guard." That is definitely something the huskies could use. Especially after having Abdul Gaddy start for a whole season (Gaddy appears to be terrified that entire game.). If you watch Andrews you can definitely tell he does not cowar at the prospect of contact or big shots.  He is always looking to score and often plays out of control. Watching him it doesnt take long to realize he pocesses the skill to get to the bucket. You will also notice that he often takes ill advised shots or attempt passes that have no chance at succeeding. He reminds me of a young Isaiah Thomas.

All of this has resulted in him averaging 25 mpg and scoring 7.7 ppg. That is a solid performance, but when you see his 35.6 FG% is a red flag that stand out on the stat line. I cant help but wonder, does Andrews play actually help the team win or is he just another player whose flare out weighs his benefits (Ala Stephon Marbury)?  My hope is he can refine his game and turn into a strong PG like the Huskies need.

Sources: Yahoo Sports, GoHuskies.com