What is the deal with James Loney?

What is the deal with James Loney? Back in the mid 2000’s, along with Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier, he was one of the young players that was supposed to help turn the Dodgers into a perennial contender. Kemp and Ethier turned into the stars they were projected to, while Loney didn’t. Sure, he hasn’t been terrible, he has a career wRC+ of 103 and is considered a solid defender, but he has been a far cry from what was expected. He is especially frustrating if you consider he is a first baseman, a position that traditionally has good or great offensive players.

At 6’3” and 220lb, Loney definitely has the body of a good player. He is tall and appears to be in good shape. He has just never been able to transform that physicality into success at the major league level. He is a great example of a jeans salesman (watch Moneyball, you’ll get the reference). It just looks like he should be a good player.

There is definitely more to the perception that he should be good then just his athletic body. Loney’s minor league career seemed to indicate major league success. As a minor leaguer he had a triple slash of .296/.363/.430. His potential landed him on the Baseball America top 50 prospects list three of his five seasons (if you don’t count 2007 when he was no longer a prospect). In 2006, during a half season with the Las Vegas 51’s, Loney hit .380/.426/.546. That was enough to get him called up to the big leagues where he hit .284/.342/.559. The future certainly looked bright.

Looking at that major league career there are positive signs as well. During a strikeout crazy era Loney owns a career K% of 12.2%, which according to Fangraphs is great. Over the three season span of 2010-2012, Lonely was seventh in the league in line drive percentage (LD%). Normally a high LD% translates into on field success. Some of the other leaders are Joey Votto, Joe Mauer and Freddie Freeman. Additionally, he makes contact at an above average rate, 87.9% of the time he swings. The numbers tell us he avoids strikeouts, makes contact at a high rate and the type of contact he makes is good. All this should lead to success.

So, he looks like he should be good, he did well in the minors and his peripheral stats show signs of promise, why is he bad? Maybe James Loney is just unlucky. The thing is, in baseball, even luck can be measured. BABIP does exactly this. According to Fangraphs, an average BABIP is .290-.310. James Loney has a career BABIP of .305, right around average. I think this is enough to discredit that he is unlucky. That leaves us still lost as to why he isn’t good.

Not being able to figure it out with body type, minor or major league stats, the best guess I can offer is a lack of bat speed. Big toned muscles don’t generate power alone, basically, bat speed generates power. People generate bat speed in all different ways (quick wrists, huge pecs and arms, powerful hips, etc), but without it you just don’t hit for power. I am not a doctor, a physical trainer or a professional scout, so I couldn’t tell you exactly about his bat speed. However, I can tell you having low bat speed is the most likely reason why someone cant hit for power.

So, why isn’t James Loney good? Unfortunately, I can’t tell you for sure. All I can do is offer guesses, which is a pretty disappointing outcome for a blog post (especially sense you had to read so many words to get here). However, based on his ability to consistently land on major league rosters I am not the only who confused by his lack of success. The professional evaluators continue to see something in him. James Loney’s lack of success will continue to be a mystery.

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference