The Mariner's Starters are just Not that Good

Heading into this season the majority or fans and media seemed to think the Mariners starting pitching was going to be great. Lots of local talking heads held them up as one of the best pitching staffs in major league baseball. So far things haven’t turned out that great. I am personally not that surprised. I didn’t understand the hype preseason. 

The one sure thing in the rotation was Felix Hernandez. And what do you know? He has been awesome. He continues to decimate AL batters and keep the M’s in every game he pitches. He sets the bar so high it makes it hard for other pitchers to follow. M’s fans rightfully appreciate a great player.

Iwakuma and Happ have both been surprises, but for different reasons. They have basically flipped spots based on performance. Iwakuma has been much worse than expected. He is supposed to be a legit number two starter, instead he has struggled to get out of the fourth inning. Happ looked like just another arm. Someone to eat up innings every fifth day. Instead he has provided the M’s with almost all of their good starts not belonging to The King. 

Looking back neither of these results should be that surprising. There was writing on the wall for both of these players. ‘Kuma had a 7.61 ERA in 23.66 IP during the month of September last year. He struggled to end the season and he hasn’t gotten it back. I hope that he figures it out, but I am not holding my breath. His struggles could have been predicted. 

J.A. Happ, the newcomer to the staff, was a high profile prospect in his youth. After struggling in Houston he landed in Toronto. As a flyball pitcher Happ was ill-suited for the home run friendly confines of the Rogers Centre. In 2014 his 39.5% flyball rate put him at the 17^th highest among all qualified starters in both leagues and that was the second lowest flyball rate of his career. Happ is a flyball pitcher and the exact kind of guy that Safeco Field helps succeed. His recent success isn’t as crazy as some people believe. 

The other two starter, Paxton and Walker, are essentially rookies. Combined they pitched 112 innings in 2014. That is less than half what Felix threw. The sample size on these guys was small. Expecting them to perform at All-Star levels was crazy. Rookie Pitchers struggle. It takes them a while to figure out the majors. I expected both to figure it out eventually, but in the meantime we are going to have to suffer through the learning curve. 

The sky high pre-season expectations for the M’s starting pitchers was unfounded. All four starters that aren’t named Hernandez had red flags. Three of the four struggling isn’t a surprise. This team’s pitching staff isn’t as star studded as the 2013 Tigers or the 2015 Nationals. They are just average and it is time for people to realize this.