Sixteen Years of Mariners Misery

The Buffalo Bills finally made it into the NFL playoffs as a Wild Card. They ended a drought of 17 years with making the playoffs this year. Their last trip was in 1999. The Bills had the longest consecutive stretch without making the playoffs of any major North American sports team. The new owners of that dubious title are the Seattle Mariners.

As a Mariners fan we have been treated to a miserable run of baseball in Seattle. The Mariners haven't made the playoffs since 2001, the same season they won 116 regular season games, but failed to make it to the World Series. The team did put together two solid season in 2002 and 2003 winning 93 games each time, but missing the playoffs, because the AL West was just plain stacked with talent. From 2004 onwards that Mariners have never managed to win 90+ games. The team has been stuck in an epic slump of bad to mediocre results.

Fans blame the playoffs drought on lots of stuff. Over the years favorite explanations for the misery have included ownership not caring about winning, the ballpark suppressing offense, managements refusal to spend money of big time free agents. Each of these has been debunked to various degrees. The Seattle Mariners failure is really just because their General Managers have made an astonishingly large number of bad moves over the last fourteen years and the team has had some really bad luck.

So to honor the end of the Bills streak and the Mariners taking over the top spot on the list for futility I thought it would be interesting to look back at each of the last sixteen Mariners seasons. I plan on breaking this up over several posts, but we will hit each of the seasons, from the lowest low to the highest medium.

2002-2003

As previously mentioned the Mariners won 93 games in both 2002 and 2003. The teams were solid and in almost any other year would have made the playoffs. Unfortunately the American League and the West Division were also having stellar years. In 2002 the A's and Yankees both won 103 games, and the Angels won 99. In 2003 the Yankees won 101 games, the A's won 96 games, and the Red Sox won 95. There were just too many really good teams in the American League in the early 2000's.

The offenses of 2002 and 2003 were anchored by Bret Boone, who was still in his prime. In 2003 he hit 35 HR, batted .294 and drove in 117 runs. The 2002 team saw John Olerud crush the ball at the plate. His triple slash was .300/.404/.490. The 2003 team had a rebound year by Edgar Martinez, who hit .294/.406/.489 in 145 games.

The defenses of both teams had Mike Cameron roaming centerfield and Ichiro Suzuki in right field. They were two of the best defenders of the era. The guys prevented tons runs with their gloves and arms. Homeruns were robbed and baserunners were thrown out.

The 2002 team saw Joel Pineiro put up the best season of his career. He posted a 3.24 ERA in 28 starts and 194.1 innings. The team also had Jamie Moyer put forward another great season with a 3.32 ERA over 34 starts and 230.2 innings.

The 2003 team had the rare luxury of five pitchers (J. Moyer, R. Franklin, J. Pinerio, F. Garcia, and G. Meche) starting 30 plus games. Jamie Moyer was the best of them starting 33 games and having a 3.27 ERA. Impressively the soft tossing Moyer recorded a WHIP of 1.075. Of the starters only Gil Meche didn't record over 200 innings.

Another pitching standout in 2003 was Shigetoshi Hasegawa. The relief pitcher posted a 1.48 ERA over 73 innings. Between June 3rd and August 17th, a total of 25 games, Shiggy didn't give up any runs. He was as dominate a reliever as the American League saw in 2003. Although he didn't strike many batters out he did get half of his outs with groundballs.

All told the 2002 and 2003 teams were very solid. They had good players and should have been able to make the playoffs. The teams could both hit and pitch. Unfortunately they ran into a historically strong American league field. At the time it didn't seem like the Mariners were about to enter a stretch a failure that would lead them to the longest active playoff drought in major North American sports.

Sources: Baseball Reference, Fangraphs

Time to Rebuild

The Seahawks 2017 season has been full of ups and downs. The embarrassment at home against the Los Angeles Rams, who were leading 34-0 at half time and were never once at risk of losing, was a turning point for me. The game reinforced that the Seahawks are a team full of weaknesses. They are no longer a dominate team, but instead a mediocre team with a few superstars. The glory days of the Seahawks dominating the NFC West have come to an end.

The Seahawks have had an amazing run of success. Since 2012 they have won at least 10 games each seasons, going 56-23-1. This year they could still finish 10-6 if they can beat the Cowboys and the Cardinals to end the season. This kind of success is hard to come by in the NFL. The only other team over that five year stretch to win at least ten games each season is the New England Patriots (the Packers made the playoffs every year, but went 8-7-1 in 2013). Pete Carroll and the Seahawks players from those teams should be proud of their accomplishments. However if the team wants to continue their run of success they need to realize this turning point, clean house and start a rebuild.

Blowing up a team that still has many fan favorites that helped the team achieve their success will be a hard pill to swallow, but it has to happen. If they don't act now the team will enter the all too common curse of former great teams, treading water as mediocre. The ageing star's big salaries and inconsistent play will let them win some games, but keep them from winning enough to reach the most important one of all. The fans may like having their favorites around, but they will be frustrated by the fading glory.

2017 has been a perfect example of this mediocrity. They have had impressive wins like against the Philadelphia Eagles, and embarrassing losses, like against Washington. All the money tied up in the Seahawks big name star has created weakness in the reserves and the offensive line. The lack of depth is obvious at linebacker when absent Bobby Wagner (admittedly an All-Pro) and KJ Wright, the corps appears to vanish, as tackles are missed and plays go for extra yards. The current team is too flawed to win consistently.

The front office should be open to moving, either trading or cutting, every single player on the roster, with one exception. Stars like Michael Bennett, Kam Chancellor shouldn't be spared. In Bennett's case he still shows signs of greatness, but other weeks he is a complete no show and he always hurts the team with stupid penalties. Kam is still an emotional leader for the team, but Bradley McDougald has shown Chancellor's on field play can be replaced. Additionally Kam has failed to stay healthy and on the field. It is a harsh reality of the NFL that players have to be able to stay healthy if they are going to stay on a roster.

Other players will be easy to let go. Blair Walsh has proven to be a liability. He can't hit a FG over 50 yards and struggles even at much more routine distances. He should be the first player gone. Jeremy Lane often looks lost. He has been beaten several times. According to Over the Cap he is set to get paid $6 million in 2018 and hit the Seattle salary cap with $7.25 million.  For a fairly mediocre player that price is easily replaceable in the draft.

As previously mentioned there should be one exception to the fire sale, Russell Wilson. Franchise QB are too important and difficult to find. Without one teams end up like the Cleveland Browns, desperately searching for years. Russell is 29 years old and in his NFL prime. Before the Rams debacle he was playing at an MVP level. Although that game should take him out of the consideration.

On the season he has 32 passing TD to only 11 INT and an additional 3 rushing TD. Wilson has thrown for the tenth most passing yards in the NFL and rushed for the second most, after Cam Newton, of any quarterback. He is one of the most elusive quarterbacks in the league, despite playing behind one of the worst offensive lines. He is super clutch, frequently carrying the team on his back during the fourth quarter to make the game close. Simply put Russell Wilson is the most value Seahawk and will be leading the team for at least another 6 seasons.

It will be painful, but the Seahawks need to rip the band-aid off and start a rebuild. If done now it will save them and their fans from years of frustrating mediocrity. Aging former stars with major contracts can put on an impressive performance from time to time, but they can't play with enough consistency to win a Super Bowl. The team needs to get young and hungry again. They need to build depth at linebacker and offensive line.

Sources: Over the Cap, Pro Football Reference 

An Embarrassment in Seattle

The Seahawks completely and totally embarrassed themselves at home in CenturyLink Field on Sunday afternoon. In the most important game of the season they completely and totally failed in all three phases of the game and got their assess handed to them by the Rams. The score was 34-0 at half time and if the Rams had kept trying they could have easily scored 70. Runningback Todd Gurley was free to head where ever he wanted. The Rams vaunted D line destroyed the Seahawks; recording  seven sacks and holding Seahawk's runningbacks to 49 yards. This was the worst performance by the Seahawks at any time in Pete Carroll's tenure as head coach. None of the Seattle players should show their faces in the city this week.

The team's complete and total failure on Sunday was unacceptable. Ownership should be furious. It is one thing to lose and important to a conference rival, but to get devastated like the Seahawks is something else entirely. The teams should refund all of the fans who attended the game. These fans paid three figures to attend a football game. A certain level of effort and quality should be provided. Issuing a refund isn't unprecedented. The Seattle Sounders FC did it in 2010 after getting embarrassed by the LA Galaxy. Seattle needs to make amends to their loyal fans for such a piss-poor performance.

Sources: Pro Football Reference

The Bills Bone Headed Move

ESPN recently profiled NFL quarterback Tyrod Taylor. The article described his complex place in the NFL. Although not a star he is a clearly competent player. Coming into week 11 Taylor hadn't played stellar this year, but was still not hurting his team. He had 10 TD to only 3 INT. The Bills were 5-4 and coming off two consecutive losses. In the first loss the Bills fell to the Jets 34-21. Taylor went 29/40 for 285 yards and 2 TD. During the second loss, against the Saints, Taylor struggled going only 9/18 for 56 yards and an INT.  In the teams two most recent losses prior to week 11 Taylor had one good game and one bad game. However, both losses clearly had more to do with the Bills defense's inability to stop the opposing run. In those two games they gave up 194 and 298 yards rushing respectively.

Leading up to the Bills week 11 matchup against the Chargers, Bills head coach Sean McDermott analyzed his teams recent struggles and decided to make a change at QB and let rookie Quarterback Nathan Peterman start. The outcome of the decision was terrible. Peterman managed to throw 5 interceptions in just one half, letting the Chargers get ahead 37-7. He did so poorly that McDermott was forced to make a change and put Taylor back in at quarterback for the second half. To put this all in comparison, Peterman threw more interceptions in a half then Taylor has thrown all year. He threw the same number of interceptions as Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, and Carson Wentz have all year. Those guys have started all ten games their teams have played. Peterson has an interception rate of 20.8%. Throwing five INT in a half is really bad.

I am not normally one to call for the firing of coaches after a small sample size, but I think McDermott is a special kind of dumb. The Bills head coach decided that this above average ball security quarterback on a team that was 5-4 needed to be benched. His backup plan was starting a rookie QB with 10 career attempts. This is not a strategy for success. Teams with playoff hopes don't switch out their quarterbacks willy-nilly, especially for unproven rookies. They stick with guys way worse than Taylor. The decision to bench Taylor in favor of Peterman was a bad one and it blew up in extraordinary fashion. McDermott needs to be on the hot seat. The Bills ownership needs to let him know that he made a stupid decision and if he wants to stay their head coach he needs to stop making stupid decisions. Finally Tyrod Taylor needs to start the remainder of the games for the Bills.

Sources: Pro Football Reference

Seahawks Shoots Themselves in the Both Feet, Then Face for Good Measure

The Seahawks lost to Washington 17-14 today in what can only be described by a terrible performance by most of the team. The Seahawks had no business winning the game. The played poorly in almost all phases.

The worst and most egregious performance was kicker Blair Walsh who missed three straight field goals. All of them were wide left. If he had made any of them the team would have at least tied the game. Up until this point Walsh had been having a good season. Hopefully this is just a bump in the road and he recovers.

Quarterback Russell Wilson also struggled. He threw 2 interceptions (and another on a 2 point conversion attempt). He frequently under-threw open receivers, resulting in missed big gains. Not all was bad for Danger Russ. He did lead the team on a fourth quarter touchdown drive inside the two minute warning. Unfortunately Wilson's play kept the team from scoring as many points as possible and let Washington stay in the game.

The Seahawks also put themselves into a tough situation by committing 16 penalties. Even for a Pete Carroll team this is a huge number. Many of these were drive killing for Seattle's offense or drive extending for Washington's. It is really hard for any team to win when they commit 16 penalties, but it is especially hard when the kicker gives away 9 points wide left.

Finally the defense was bit by their recurring inability to stop big plays in crucial situations. Down 4 points with 1:34 to go Washington drove 70 yards on 4 plays in 35 seconds and scored a game winning touchdown. On the drive the Seahawks defense gave up two 30+ yard passes.

MLS Decision Day Could be So Much Better

In 2016 MLS introduced Decision Day. It is the last regular season game of the year for all of the teams and all the games kickoff at the same time on the same day. The idea is none of the teams can scoreboard watch and play accordingly. Every team has to put in their all to try and get the result they need. Star players won't be sat or pulled early because some earlier result already cemented the standings.  It is a great idea, but Decision Day could be so much better.

The NFL is the most popular sports league in the United States. The vast majority of NFL games take place on Sundays. There are three main time slots on Sunday when games kickoff: 10:00am, 1:00pm, and 5:30pm (all PST). So between the hours of 10:00 am - and 8:30 pm the American sports fan is probably tied up watching some sort of NFL game.

For two years in a row MLS has decided to schedule Decision Day on a Sunday around 1:00pm. That means all of the media markets that have both an NFL team and a MLS team will most likely have the games going on at the same time. Sports fans that aren't hardcore soccer fans are forced to choose between watching one of their favorite football teams 16 regular season games or the final regular season game for their soccer club. For most fans the NFL will win out.

Going up against the king of American sports must hurt MLS. Fans that would otherwise be interested in watching the excitement of Decision Day will miss it or watch it on DVR. The potential fan interaction is diminished by losing such a large chunk of the audience. Additionally, potential new fans of the sport are suppressed. On a lazy Sunday afternoon a sports fan isn't going to decide to flip around looking for something new and interesting to watch. They are going with the known product of NFL games.

Decision Day is a great idea. I love the thought of fans all over the league cheering on their teams simultaneously. The social media environment and live updates add to the excitement. Unfortunately the execution of the soccer spectacular  is lacking. Holding it in the middle of an NFL Sunday forces fans to pick between football and soccer. For most fans it won't be a hard decision and their will choose to watch the drama unfold on the gridiron. MLS needs to pick a better date and tie to hold Decision Day. 

The Rams Game Cemented My Belief that the Seahawk's Defense is No Longer Elite

After the Seahawks 16-10 win over the Los Angeles Rams most expert's analysis focused on the Seahawks defense. The prevailing opinion was the Legion of Boom had shown itself to be as dominate as ever. They held the highest scoring offense in the league to just 10 points, all of which came in the first half. The defense also caused five turnovers. However, I left the game feeling it was just more proof the Seahawks defense doesn't have what it takes to win the Super Bowl on their own. They are not as good as they have been in the past. They are not elite.

The Seahawks defense didn't play poorly against the Rams. The defenders played like a middle of the road NFL defense. They made several good plays. They capitalized on Ram's mistakes. Most importantly though, the Seahawks had luck on their side and they won the game because of it.

The first drive against the Seahawks was a dominate showing by the Rams offense. It ended with what normally would have been a touchdown run, but instead was a fumble out of the back of the end zone, which resulted in a touchback. This was caused by an amazing play by Earl Thomas, but it was also incredibly lucky. If the ball had bounced out of the side of the field, instead of in back of it, the result would have been Ram's ball on the 1 yard line. If Gurley had reached out a second earlier it would have been a touchdown. If Gurley had tucked the ball in and powered forward it would probably have been a touchdown, or at least a first down on the 1 yard line. Nine times out of ten that drive would have ended with a touchdown. Regardless of the eventual outcome that drive was an impressive showing by the Rams. They were in such a rhythm that they never faced a third down. The team never once looked phased by the Seahawks defenders.

Later in the game, near the beginning of the second quarter Ram's Wide receiver Tavon Austin took a third down run 22 yards for a score. This play was concerning to me because giving up big runs has become a trend for the Seahawks in 2017. So far this year the Seahawks once stout run defense has been gashed repeatedly for 20 plus yard runs. DeMarco Murray ran for 75 yards in week 3 and his teammate Derrick Henry added another 20 yarder in the same game. In week 2 the Seahawks defense gave up a 61 yard run to Carlos Hyde. In three out of five games this year the Seahawks have failed to contain opposing running backs. The Rams game added to the evidence that the Seahawks struggle to avoid giving up big running plays.

Twice more the Seahawks defense escaped the Rams offense with the help of some luck. To start the third quarter the Rams had a 12 play drive that ended without points only because kicker Greg Zuerlein missed a 36 yard field goal, a distance that he hits 88.7% of the time in his career. Later in the game normally sure handed running back Todd Gurley tipped a screen pass, instead of catching it, resulting in a Sheldon Richardson interception (Richardson is a defensive tackle, which makes this super awesome). The interception was at the Seattle 25 yard line, ending a drive that normally would have resulted in a field goal.

The Seahawks defense luck hit again on the Ram's penultimate play of the game. With 12 seconds left in the game rookie wide receiver Cooper Kupp beat Seahawk Justin Coleman to get open in the endzone. Quarterback Jared Goff threw a dime that hit a diving Kupp in both hands before falling incomplete. That pass should have been a game winning touchdown for the Rams. The Seahawks defense didn't defend the Rams drive well and were extremely lucky to escape. On any other day, when the Rams had even a modicum of luck on their side, Kupp would have made that catch securing a victory for Los Angeles.

If you focus on the individual drives and not the final outcome the Ram's game highlighted the flaws in the 2017 Seahawks defense.  They have flashes of brilliance, but are not consistent. They feature several super stars, but lack depth. They are prone to untimely penalties.

This is bad news for the probable outcome of the season because the Seahawks offense is terrible, meaning the defense is going to have to be on the field a lot. They are going to have to put in a herculean effort every week and try to keep every team in the low teens. To pull this off the defense needs to be the most elite unit in the league. They need to be historic in their greatness. In the modern day NFL elite offenses are a dime a dozen so it is a sure thing that the Seahawks are going to face one in the payoffs. If the defense can't shut down a scoring machine like the Atlanta Falcons, the Seahawks won't have a chance.

Watching the first five games of 2017 has convince me that the Seahawks defense isn't elite. The Rams game was a perfect example of why they aren't. The team relied more on luck then good play to stop a dangerous Rams scoring attack. If the ball had bounced another way, quite literally in this case, the Seahawks would have lost that game.

References: Pro Football Reference

*Correction: A previous version said Kam Chancellor was beaten by Cooper Kupp, not Justin Coleman.