The Mariner’s Offense Sucks, Pass the Blame Around Part II

Much like Carlos Peguero, Mariners starting catcher Miguel Olivo has been a wreck at the plate this year. So far he has an AVG of .222, OBP of .267 and SLG or .399. You read that right; he has an OBP of .267. To compare, Worst Player in the League Yuniesky Betancourt has an OBP of .255 with the Brewers. Some might argue that catcher tend to be worse offensive players; so to judge his true offense value, we should only compare him to other catchers. This argument doesn’t hold water. When you compare his wRC+ or WAR to all other qualified catchers on Fangraphs, he comes in dead last. This isn’t some kind of down year either. Olivo has a career wRC+ of 80. That means we can’t even hope he starts producing at his career levels. Even for a catcher, Miguel Olivo can’t hit.

Despite this awful offensive performance, he gets a ton of love from the Mariners fan and analyst community. I think some of the reason for this is that he is second on the team in HR. However, the majority of the reason is because Miguel Olivo isn’t Rob Johnson. After suffering through two years of atrocious catcher play from Rob Johnson, Mariners fans are eager for anything else. I once found myself wishing that Guillermo Quiroz would stick, just to end the Rob Johnson debacle. However, this lack of being someone else is not an acceptable excuse for Miguel Olivo’s poor hitting. The Mariners need to get more hitting out of the catching spot.

The problem with Olivo is the Mariners don’t have any simple solution. There isn’t a minor league catcher that has shown any batting skill waiting to be called up. The existing backup, Chris Gimenez, is actually somehow worse at hitting than Olivo. On top of that Olivo brings other things to the table, besides his offense (which is good considering how bad his offense is) which might be helping the team win games.
Among the Hispanic players, Olivo has become a team leader. The other guys look up to him. As long as they aren’t trying to emulate his offense, this is a good thing. As a player Olivo has always acted like a professional. It would be a good thing for his work ethic and competitive fire to wear off onto the younger Mariner players. It is one of those intangibles that coaches and reporters are always talking about requiring but there is no way of measuring.

In addition to his leadership Olivo appears to have done a great job with the pitching staff. Ranked by ERA, the Mariners pitchers are the fifth best in the major league baseball. I am sure that means he has one of the best catcher’s ERAs in the league. However, catcher’s ERA is more of the sign of correlation than causation. It doesn’t really measure the impact of a catcher on the pitcher’s skill. I don’t know of any readily available statistic that measures a catchers impact on a team’s pitching. Regardless of a lack of a metric, the Mariner’s pitchers are on a roll, set to have the best season as a group in Mariners history, and we probably should give Olivo some of the credit for that.

That is where the problem lies with Miguel Olivo. His two positive traits, his leadership and his handling of the pitching staff, are immeasurable. We can’t directly relate either to team wins. We just have to accept that in the leadership and pitch management department Miguel Olivo is helping the Mariners win games. So, how do we know if his positive input from the intangibles is outweighing his negative input from the hitting? How do we know if we even need another solution at catcher? We don’t. We just have to accept Eric Wedge playing him at starting catcher everyday as proof in the Mariner’s belief that Olivo helps them win games. This is a crappy solution for a team so terribly in need of offense.

As I see we are stuck with three possible outcomes to the Olivo problem:

·         The first is we just accept things as they are, hope his intangibles really are doing something and keep ignoring the fact that he can’t hit a lick. This is the worst choice, but also the most likely to happen.

·         The second is we trade with another team for a new catcher that can hit. This is the ideal solution. The problem is catchers that can hit don’t come cheaply on the trade market. They are rare and very valuable. I just don’t see the Mariner’s being able to make a good trade that brings new catcher here.

·         The third and the solution I would like to see, is just a little bit of a spin on the first. The Mariners keep Olivo, but they reduce his playing time, and by doing that reduce the negative impact he has at the plate. In his place they keep trying any of the plethora of minor league catchers floating around in the organization and hope one of them breaks out. This allows Olivo to continue to offer his intangibles to the team without hurting the team offensively on a daily basis. It also opens the door to the possibility of finding someone, anyone, else to play catcher for the mariners on a Daily basis.

Sources: Fangraphs, Yahoo Sports

The Mariner’s Offense Sucks, Pass the Blame Around

The Seattle Mariners are sitting at 39-40 and only 2 games behind the Texas Rangers for the AL West lead. They have achieved this record almost entirely because of their pitching staff. This has been much discussed in the Seattle sports seen. The pitchers are truly great. The starting five have a combined ERA of 3.16 and trail only the Phillies and their staff of aces. Once they figured out who was good and who needed to be sent back to Tacoma, the bullpen has also been lights out. Led by Brandon League and David Pauley they have a combined 3.50 ERA.

Despite all this pitching prowess, the Mariners have managed to only win exactly half of their games. This is because the offense is epically terrible. As of Monday, the M’s have a team wRC+ of 79, which means as a whole they are 21% worse than the major league average. The team’s offensive futility can be expressed more traditionally by looking at the AVG, OBP and SLG. In those three categories the Mariners are hitting .227/.295/.338. As a group their hitters deserve a big old FAIL.

When you break the team down and examine the plate struggles more closely you can see that no one position is to blame. Every position on the Mariners has performed below average except, thanks to Justin Smoak, first base. Some of poorly performing players have been publicized quite a bit. Guy’s like Chone Figgins, Jack Cust and Michael Saunders get hammered (or in Saunders case got hammered) by the press and fans alike for their struggles at the plate. However, other failures at the plate seem to go unnoticed, specifically, Carlos Peguero and Miguel Olivo. The situations and solutions related to each are unique; Carlos Peguero’s situation is an easy fix while Miguel Olivo’s is much more complicated. However, one thing is for sure, if the Mariner’s offense is going to improve they are going to have to get more out of the positions these guys play.

Let’s take a look at the Carlos Peguero Situation first. It is less complicated and has a clear fix. I will take a stab at Miguel Olvio and what to do there in the next post.

After the watching Michael Saunders fail miserably at the plate for the first couple months of the season, the Mariner’s sent him down to Tacoma. Taking over for him in left field has been a combination of Mike Wilson (now back in Tacoma), Greg Halman, Mike Carp and most frequently Carlos Peguero. Fans and commentators across Mariner’s nation have become enamored with Peguero. Looking at his massive powerful frame and witnessing his all or nothing swing it is easy to see why many Mariners fans want him to succeed so badly. Peguero shows the signs of someone that might someday turn into a legitimate offensive threat in the big leagues. Mariner’s announcer Dave Sims like Peguero’s approach so much he went as far as to say he looked like a Stargell or McCovey style player (USTN writer Matt ranted on that here). Unfortunately, so far all Peguero has shown is promise. His natural athletic features haven’t translated into baseball success.

On the season Peguero is batting a measly .205 with a wRC+ of 85. On top of not being able to collect many base hits, Peguero doesn’t walk and strikes out all the time. He only has seven walks on the whole season and two of them are intentional. He has struck out 40 times for a staggering 34.2% K%. His biggest strength has been his strength. So far he is slugging .419, which is impressive considering how infrequently he actually gets hits.

At the major league level Peguero is not effective. To replace him the Mariners have two other Tacoma alums, Greg Halman and Mike Carp, currently on the big league roster. In limited major league playing time Halman has a wRC+ of 172 (and, unrelated to the topic of this post, he offers a very noticeable upgrade defensively over Peguero). Mike Carp was on an unbelievable hitting tear, down in Tacoma; in 56 games he had a .353 AVG, 19 HR and 58 RBI. So far in his sporadic major league playing time he is putting up an exactly league average wRC+ of 100. Both of these guys are currently having their playing time blocked by the Mariners insistence on putting Peguero in LF and both would offer offensive upgrade. With 37 games and 127 PA under his belt, Peguero has proven to be way over matched at the major league level. The best solution for both the Mariners and Peguero would be to send him back down to AAA, where he can work on his hitting approach against easier pitching. The guy shows serious potential but he just has not put it together yet.

Sources: Fangraphs, Yahoo Sports

News Flash: Rob Johnson is Still Terrible at Hitting!

The Mariners have a long full history of poor performing players on their roster leaving ,by trade or free agency, only to have them succeed else where. I dont know if it happens more to the Seattle team than other, but as someone who follows them closely it sure seems like it. In recent history, guys like Mike Morse, Matt Thornton and Shin-Soo Choo have all been dumped by the Mariners during cold streaks only to have them move on and find success elsewhere.

However, I have good news for those fans out there that are sick of seeing all of our ex-players succeed elsewhere. It is also bad news for the Padres. Former Mariner's starting catcher Rob Johnson still sucks. Through 38 games he is batting a measly .180 and has a wRC+ of 41. That guy is still terrible at hitting.

A Quick Programming Note

Here's a little eye candy
 for you in my absence.

I will be off to my summer job tomorrow afternoon, and as such won't be able to write much (if at all) for a couple months.  I'll try and check in when I can, but until my return please give your undivided attention to Kevin, our fearless co-writer.  Expect to see a couple brief posts from me popping up on the weekends, but certainly no eight page masterpieces that nobody reads like we are accustomed to from me, and even less lists that don't apply to anything.  I know, I know, you're heartbroken.  Be strong, dear reader(s, but who are we kidding?), for the rest of the crew is here to not only keep Unique Sports Theme Name afloat, but keep it flourishing into a blog with the possibility of one day reaching double digit readers.

In the mean time, you'll have to rely on Kevin for just about every post.  Yes, my absence will mean a plethora of grammatical and spelling errors, despite our software having both spell- and grammar-check, but Unique Sports Theme Name isn't about who is writing the stories or even who's bothering with any kind of credible research (hint: I certainly never have.)  It's about the game, man.  It's all about the game.

Dave Sims is an Idiot

Exhibit A: This Man is an Idiot

While I've been fairly vocal in my hate of Dave Sims over the last few years, this tears it.  There is absolutely no excuse for the idiocy that is Sims' homer announcing.  Hell, I am a Mariners fan and I can't stand in.

For those who want a little background, here's what has pushed me over the edge.  In a recent Mariners-Angels game, Carlos Peguero came up to bat.  After swinging at a terrible pitch that was very close to bouncing, Peguero benefited from an uncredited fielding error by Mark Trumbo to add a double to his stat line.  This, of course, led to Sims commending Peguero as the "McCovey or Stargell" of the Seattle Mariners.

Athleticism at its Finest

If that didn't make you happy, nothing will.

Battle of the Greats: Brian Cardinal v. Brian Scalabrine

Forever a champion.

Welcome to the first of a (hopefully) long-running and critically acclaimed series, Battle of the Greats.  In this series, we look to compare the best of the best in sports, seeing who was truly better at their prime in order to end age-old arguments.  So we are like the player ranker on Basketball Reference, except you have to read more (Sorry.)  Today's first post looks at some of the greatest power forwards who ever have lived.  Two men destined for the Hall of Fame for sure, but for now still gracing us with their presence in the National Association for the Advancement of Colored Peoples, or NBA.

Seahawks 2011 Draft

A couple of months ago, I wasn’t even out of the labor market yet when Kevin (KSwiss to the uniquesportsthemedname fan nation out there) reached out to me with a lucrative offer to write occasionally for this blog as a Seahawks correspondent. Other than the six figure salary, niche benefits in the offer included luxury box seating at all Seahawks games (home and away) and unlimited access to players & coaches at any time. After a long and arduous negotiating process, I have gracefully accepted. With that said, we can move onto what is literally the only relevant piece of news for the Seahawks this off-season: the2011 draft. Here’s what we came away with:

James Carpenter – Guard
John Moffitt – Guard
K.J. Wright – Linebacker
Kris Durham – Wide Receiver
Richard Sherman – Defensive Back
Mark LeGree – Free Safety
Byron Maxwell – Defensive Back
Lazarius Levingston – Defensive End
Malcolm Smith – Outside Linebacker

In summary, Carroll & Schneider are making good on their word to continue building the team from the bottom-up. The fact that they have a plan and are taking steps to execute it is itself somewhat positive. The Hawks used the draft looking to completely overhaul the offensive line and reinforce our secondary. By all accounts, both were terrible last season with problems in our offensive line having persistently worsened ever since the departures of Steve Hutchinson and Walter Jones. My general reaction could be described as apathetically pleased.
To be sure, these draft results and their lack of emphasis on entertaining skill positions weren’t going to buzz fans. They didn’t buzz pundits or elite sports commentators either. Figures such as Mel Kiper gave the Seahawks the lowest draft rating in the NFL with a grade of ‘D+’. It’s official now; the Seahawks are like the kid in your High School American History class who played with their finger skateboard incessantly and sniffed rubber cement during class.

Kiper’s main issue with the draft selections is that the Hawks left the quarterback situation unaddressed and that we reached on various picks (namely with Carpenter, Wright, and Durham) when higher-valued talent was available. With respect to the former, its true quarterback position remains in question. With the offensive line, quarterback was inarguably our area of greatest need, and it remains so currently. That said, chastising teams for leaving glaring needs or holes unaddressed in the draft does not strike me as a categorically valid criticism. If management was not impressed with this year’s lot of young QBs with respect to the new offense we want to run, then there’s no sense in trying to resolve the QB situation simply for the sake of resolving it. Indeed it appears there are similar attitudes in the NFC West as the Cardinals also did not address their QB position despite having the 5th overall pick. With the 25th pick in the first round there was no reason for the Hawks to have a risk-seeking strategy and addressing the immediate needs in the draft that the team is confident can be met is the logical course of action. Unlike a hypothetical QB selection, Carpenter and Moffitt should be immediate contributors as they are expected to start this season (if there is one). Even in the worst case scenario we’ll be able to find a utility QB through free agency that is at least better than Charlie Whitehurst (and if free agency never comes then there won’t be a season, in which case, Kiper’s criticism is rendered irrelevant) and allows us to properly allocate resources until the right franchise QB comes around.

Kiper’s other criticism insisting that the Hawks reached on various picks can’t be refuted at this point. Admittedly, I have little knowledge of college football players -much less offensive lineman- to debate about the relative value of every other player available at the time of our selections. However, with the way Russell Okung and Earl Thomas are developing, I am happy to give Pete & Schneider the benefit of the doubt when it comes to relative value. We have no reason to not trust their scouting at this point.

While much work remains to be done this off-season and I am specifically anxious to see how or if the QB situation is addressed, I definitely look forward to seeing an offensive line that doesn’t collapse faster than France’s Maginot Line did in 1940 –ZING! Unless Andy Dalton develops into an elite quarterback who would have been compatible with our offense, then I remain convinced that the Seahawks have sustained relatively low opportunity costs with this year’s draft selections.