Time to Rebuild

The Seahawks 2017 season has been full of ups and downs. The embarrassment at home against the Los Angeles Rams, who were leading 34-0 at half time and were never once at risk of losing, was a turning point for me. The game reinforced that the Seahawks are a team full of weaknesses. They are no longer a dominate team, but instead a mediocre team with a few superstars. The glory days of the Seahawks dominating the NFC West have come to an end.

The Seahawks have had an amazing run of success. Since 2012 they have won at least 10 games each seasons, going 56-23-1. This year they could still finish 10-6 if they can beat the Cowboys and the Cardinals to end the season. This kind of success is hard to come by in the NFL. The only other team over that five year stretch to win at least ten games each season is the New England Patriots (the Packers made the playoffs every year, but went 8-7-1 in 2013). Pete Carroll and the Seahawks players from those teams should be proud of their accomplishments. However if the team wants to continue their run of success they need to realize this turning point, clean house and start a rebuild.

Blowing up a team that still has many fan favorites that helped the team achieve their success will be a hard pill to swallow, but it has to happen. If they don't act now the team will enter the all too common curse of former great teams, treading water as mediocre. The ageing star's big salaries and inconsistent play will let them win some games, but keep them from winning enough to reach the most important one of all. The fans may like having their favorites around, but they will be frustrated by the fading glory.

2017 has been a perfect example of this mediocrity. They have had impressive wins like against the Philadelphia Eagles, and embarrassing losses, like against Washington. All the money tied up in the Seahawks big name star has created weakness in the reserves and the offensive line. The lack of depth is obvious at linebacker when absent Bobby Wagner (admittedly an All-Pro) and KJ Wright, the corps appears to vanish, as tackles are missed and plays go for extra yards. The current team is too flawed to win consistently.

The front office should be open to moving, either trading or cutting, every single player on the roster, with one exception. Stars like Michael Bennett, Kam Chancellor shouldn't be spared. In Bennett's case he still shows signs of greatness, but other weeks he is a complete no show and he always hurts the team with stupid penalties. Kam is still an emotional leader for the team, but Bradley McDougald has shown Chancellor's on field play can be replaced. Additionally Kam has failed to stay healthy and on the field. It is a harsh reality of the NFL that players have to be able to stay healthy if they are going to stay on a roster.

Other players will be easy to let go. Blair Walsh has proven to be a liability. He can't hit a FG over 50 yards and struggles even at much more routine distances. He should be the first player gone. Jeremy Lane often looks lost. He has been beaten several times. According to Over the Cap he is set to get paid $6 million in 2018 and hit the Seattle salary cap with $7.25 million.  For a fairly mediocre player that price is easily replaceable in the draft.

As previously mentioned there should be one exception to the fire sale, Russell Wilson. Franchise QB are too important and difficult to find. Without one teams end up like the Cleveland Browns, desperately searching for years. Russell is 29 years old and in his NFL prime. Before the Rams debacle he was playing at an MVP level. Although that game should take him out of the consideration.

On the season he has 32 passing TD to only 11 INT and an additional 3 rushing TD. Wilson has thrown for the tenth most passing yards in the NFL and rushed for the second most, after Cam Newton, of any quarterback. He is one of the most elusive quarterbacks in the league, despite playing behind one of the worst offensive lines. He is super clutch, frequently carrying the team on his back during the fourth quarter to make the game close. Simply put Russell Wilson is the most value Seahawk and will be leading the team for at least another 6 seasons.

It will be painful, but the Seahawks need to rip the band-aid off and start a rebuild. If done now it will save them and their fans from years of frustrating mediocrity. Aging former stars with major contracts can put on an impressive performance from time to time, but they can't play with enough consistency to win a Super Bowl. The team needs to get young and hungry again. They need to build depth at linebacker and offensive line.

Sources: Over the Cap, Pro Football Reference 

An Embarrassment in Seattle

The Seahawks completely and totally embarrassed themselves at home in CenturyLink Field on Sunday afternoon. In the most important game of the season they completely and totally failed in all three phases of the game and got their assess handed to them by the Rams. The score was 34-0 at half time and if the Rams had kept trying they could have easily scored 70. Runningback Todd Gurley was free to head where ever he wanted. The Rams vaunted D line destroyed the Seahawks; recording  seven sacks and holding Seahawk's runningbacks to 49 yards. This was the worst performance by the Seahawks at any time in Pete Carroll's tenure as head coach. None of the Seattle players should show their faces in the city this week.

The team's complete and total failure on Sunday was unacceptable. Ownership should be furious. It is one thing to lose and important to a conference rival, but to get devastated like the Seahawks is something else entirely. The teams should refund all of the fans who attended the game. These fans paid three figures to attend a football game. A certain level of effort and quality should be provided. Issuing a refund isn't unprecedented. The Seattle Sounders FC did it in 2010 after getting embarrassed by the LA Galaxy. Seattle needs to make amends to their loyal fans for such a piss-poor performance.

Sources: Pro Football Reference

The Bills Bone Headed Move

ESPN recently profiled NFL quarterback Tyrod Taylor. The article described his complex place in the NFL. Although not a star he is a clearly competent player. Coming into week 11 Taylor hadn't played stellar this year, but was still not hurting his team. He had 10 TD to only 3 INT. The Bills were 5-4 and coming off two consecutive losses. In the first loss the Bills fell to the Jets 34-21. Taylor went 29/40 for 285 yards and 2 TD. During the second loss, against the Saints, Taylor struggled going only 9/18 for 56 yards and an INT.  In the teams two most recent losses prior to week 11 Taylor had one good game and one bad game. However, both losses clearly had more to do with the Bills defense's inability to stop the opposing run. In those two games they gave up 194 and 298 yards rushing respectively.

Leading up to the Bills week 11 matchup against the Chargers, Bills head coach Sean McDermott analyzed his teams recent struggles and decided to make a change at QB and let rookie Quarterback Nathan Peterman start. The outcome of the decision was terrible. Peterman managed to throw 5 interceptions in just one half, letting the Chargers get ahead 37-7. He did so poorly that McDermott was forced to make a change and put Taylor back in at quarterback for the second half. To put this all in comparison, Peterman threw more interceptions in a half then Taylor has thrown all year. He threw the same number of interceptions as Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, and Carson Wentz have all year. Those guys have started all ten games their teams have played. Peterson has an interception rate of 20.8%. Throwing five INT in a half is really bad.

I am not normally one to call for the firing of coaches after a small sample size, but I think McDermott is a special kind of dumb. The Bills head coach decided that this above average ball security quarterback on a team that was 5-4 needed to be benched. His backup plan was starting a rookie QB with 10 career attempts. This is not a strategy for success. Teams with playoff hopes don't switch out their quarterbacks willy-nilly, especially for unproven rookies. They stick with guys way worse than Taylor. The decision to bench Taylor in favor of Peterman was a bad one and it blew up in extraordinary fashion. McDermott needs to be on the hot seat. The Bills ownership needs to let him know that he made a stupid decision and if he wants to stay their head coach he needs to stop making stupid decisions. Finally Tyrod Taylor needs to start the remainder of the games for the Bills.

Sources: Pro Football Reference

Seahawks Shoots Themselves in the Both Feet, Then Face for Good Measure

The Seahawks lost to Washington 17-14 today in what can only be described by a terrible performance by most of the team. The Seahawks had no business winning the game. The played poorly in almost all phases.

The worst and most egregious performance was kicker Blair Walsh who missed three straight field goals. All of them were wide left. If he had made any of them the team would have at least tied the game. Up until this point Walsh had been having a good season. Hopefully this is just a bump in the road and he recovers.

Quarterback Russell Wilson also struggled. He threw 2 interceptions (and another on a 2 point conversion attempt). He frequently under-threw open receivers, resulting in missed big gains. Not all was bad for Danger Russ. He did lead the team on a fourth quarter touchdown drive inside the two minute warning. Unfortunately Wilson's play kept the team from scoring as many points as possible and let Washington stay in the game.

The Seahawks also put themselves into a tough situation by committing 16 penalties. Even for a Pete Carroll team this is a huge number. Many of these were drive killing for Seattle's offense or drive extending for Washington's. It is really hard for any team to win when they commit 16 penalties, but it is especially hard when the kicker gives away 9 points wide left.

Finally the defense was bit by their recurring inability to stop big plays in crucial situations. Down 4 points with 1:34 to go Washington drove 70 yards on 4 plays in 35 seconds and scored a game winning touchdown. On the drive the Seahawks defense gave up two 30+ yard passes.

MLS Decision Day Could be So Much Better

In 2016 MLS introduced Decision Day. It is the last regular season game of the year for all of the teams and all the games kickoff at the same time on the same day. The idea is none of the teams can scoreboard watch and play accordingly. Every team has to put in their all to try and get the result they need. Star players won't be sat or pulled early because some earlier result already cemented the standings.  It is a great idea, but Decision Day could be so much better.

The NFL is the most popular sports league in the United States. The vast majority of NFL games take place on Sundays. There are three main time slots on Sunday when games kickoff: 10:00am, 1:00pm, and 5:30pm (all PST). So between the hours of 10:00 am - and 8:30 pm the American sports fan is probably tied up watching some sort of NFL game.

For two years in a row MLS has decided to schedule Decision Day on a Sunday around 1:00pm. That means all of the media markets that have both an NFL team and a MLS team will most likely have the games going on at the same time. Sports fans that aren't hardcore soccer fans are forced to choose between watching one of their favorite football teams 16 regular season games or the final regular season game for their soccer club. For most fans the NFL will win out.

Going up against the king of American sports must hurt MLS. Fans that would otherwise be interested in watching the excitement of Decision Day will miss it or watch it on DVR. The potential fan interaction is diminished by losing such a large chunk of the audience. Additionally, potential new fans of the sport are suppressed. On a lazy Sunday afternoon a sports fan isn't going to decide to flip around looking for something new and interesting to watch. They are going with the known product of NFL games.

Decision Day is a great idea. I love the thought of fans all over the league cheering on their teams simultaneously. The social media environment and live updates add to the excitement. Unfortunately the execution of the soccer spectacular  is lacking. Holding it in the middle of an NFL Sunday forces fans to pick between football and soccer. For most fans it won't be a hard decision and their will choose to watch the drama unfold on the gridiron. MLS needs to pick a better date and tie to hold Decision Day. 

The Rams Game Cemented My Belief that the Seahawk's Defense is No Longer Elite

After the Seahawks 16-10 win over the Los Angeles Rams most expert's analysis focused on the Seahawks defense. The prevailing opinion was the Legion of Boom had shown itself to be as dominate as ever. They held the highest scoring offense in the league to just 10 points, all of which came in the first half. The defense also caused five turnovers. However, I left the game feeling it was just more proof the Seahawks defense doesn't have what it takes to win the Super Bowl on their own. They are not as good as they have been in the past. They are not elite.

The Seahawks defense didn't play poorly against the Rams. The defenders played like a middle of the road NFL defense. They made several good plays. They capitalized on Ram's mistakes. Most importantly though, the Seahawks had luck on their side and they won the game because of it.

The first drive against the Seahawks was a dominate showing by the Rams offense. It ended with what normally would have been a touchdown run, but instead was a fumble out of the back of the end zone, which resulted in a touchback. This was caused by an amazing play by Earl Thomas, but it was also incredibly lucky. If the ball had bounced out of the side of the field, instead of in back of it, the result would have been Ram's ball on the 1 yard line. If Gurley had reached out a second earlier it would have been a touchdown. If Gurley had tucked the ball in and powered forward it would probably have been a touchdown, or at least a first down on the 1 yard line. Nine times out of ten that drive would have ended with a touchdown. Regardless of the eventual outcome that drive was an impressive showing by the Rams. They were in such a rhythm that they never faced a third down. The team never once looked phased by the Seahawks defenders.

Later in the game, near the beginning of the second quarter Ram's Wide receiver Tavon Austin took a third down run 22 yards for a score. This play was concerning to me because giving up big runs has become a trend for the Seahawks in 2017. So far this year the Seahawks once stout run defense has been gashed repeatedly for 20 plus yard runs. DeMarco Murray ran for 75 yards in week 3 and his teammate Derrick Henry added another 20 yarder in the same game. In week 2 the Seahawks defense gave up a 61 yard run to Carlos Hyde. In three out of five games this year the Seahawks have failed to contain opposing running backs. The Rams game added to the evidence that the Seahawks struggle to avoid giving up big running plays.

Twice more the Seahawks defense escaped the Rams offense with the help of some luck. To start the third quarter the Rams had a 12 play drive that ended without points only because kicker Greg Zuerlein missed a 36 yard field goal, a distance that he hits 88.7% of the time in his career. Later in the game normally sure handed running back Todd Gurley tipped a screen pass, instead of catching it, resulting in a Sheldon Richardson interception (Richardson is a defensive tackle, which makes this super awesome). The interception was at the Seattle 25 yard line, ending a drive that normally would have resulted in a field goal.

The Seahawks defense luck hit again on the Ram's penultimate play of the game. With 12 seconds left in the game rookie wide receiver Cooper Kupp beat Seahawk Justin Coleman to get open in the endzone. Quarterback Jared Goff threw a dime that hit a diving Kupp in both hands before falling incomplete. That pass should have been a game winning touchdown for the Rams. The Seahawks defense didn't defend the Rams drive well and were extremely lucky to escape. On any other day, when the Rams had even a modicum of luck on their side, Kupp would have made that catch securing a victory for Los Angeles.

If you focus on the individual drives and not the final outcome the Ram's game highlighted the flaws in the 2017 Seahawks defense.  They have flashes of brilliance, but are not consistent. They feature several super stars, but lack depth. They are prone to untimely penalties.

This is bad news for the probable outcome of the season because the Seahawks offense is terrible, meaning the defense is going to have to be on the field a lot. They are going to have to put in a herculean effort every week and try to keep every team in the low teens. To pull this off the defense needs to be the most elite unit in the league. They need to be historic in their greatness. In the modern day NFL elite offenses are a dime a dozen so it is a sure thing that the Seahawks are going to face one in the payoffs. If the defense can't shut down a scoring machine like the Atlanta Falcons, the Seahawks won't have a chance.

Watching the first five games of 2017 has convince me that the Seahawks defense isn't elite. The Rams game was a perfect example of why they aren't. The team relied more on luck then good play to stop a dangerous Rams scoring attack. If the ball had bounced another way, quite literally in this case, the Seahawks would have lost that game.

References: Pro Football Reference

*Correction: A previous version said Kam Chancellor was beaten by Cooper Kupp, not Justin Coleman.

Worse Than Advertised

Before the 2017 NFL season started, Seattle Seahawk fans, myself included, worried about the quality of the offensive line. They appeared to be a weak link that could sink the whole season. Now that the Seahawks 2017 season is underway it has become exceedingly obvious that the offensive line is worse than expected. That doesn't mean the season is lost, but it does mean that if they don't do something fast, to fix the porous offensive line, it will be over soon. 

In all three games this year the offensive line has been pushed around. They have been physically overmatched and sloppy. Defenders are able to push right through them or run around them. There have been several times when the majority of the offensive line is left standing untouched only able to helplessly watch the play unfold for a loss of yards. 

This is suboptimal pass blocking pic.twitter.com/DbFQD9zgEb

— Steven Ruiz (@theStevenRuiz) September 12, 2017

The line has failed to consistently provide lanes for the running backs. More often than not the Seahawks running backs have been hit behind the line of scrimmage. It has been a battle just to eke out a zero yard gain. This has resulted in the Seahawks averaging only 96.67 rushing yards per game. 

The struggle to sustain a running game also hurts the passing game. The other teams don’t have to respect the play action pass. The don't have the bring extra defenders in to slow down the ground game. Instead they can leave defenders in the secondary. Additionally, the line is unable to provide adequate protection to give Russell Wilson any time to pass. All of this has resulted in an anemic passing game able to squeak out 226.67 yards per game. 

All of this is depressing for Seahawks fans especially because it was foreseeable. Now the team has only two choice to try and fix the line. They can stick with what they have and hope that the players start to improve or they can turn to the trade market to try and add someone better then mediocre at playing offensive line. If they trade for an improvement they will have to give away future draft picks and most likely a quality player. Personally I think they should be willing to part with next year's first rounder to try and salvage this year. They should also consider trading one of their quality skill players. 

The 2017 version of the Seahawks offensive line is terrible. The line will most likely continue to hold back the offense. The o-line is like a governor on a racecar, keeping the team from reaching their full potential. The season is still young and isn't a lost cause yet, but the team needs to fix the offensive line.

Why the Seahawks Will Not Win Super Bowl LII

While the Seahawks are definitely a favorite to win the NFC Championship, they are not a perfect team. The 2017 Seahawks have one glaring terrible flaw that could keep them from reaching the Super Bowl. Much like 2016, the 2017 Seahawks feature one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.

For anyone who watched the Seahawks 2016 season memories of the offense usually involve the offensive line failing. They failed to effectively run block. The team averaged under 100 rushing yards per game. They failed to protect Russell Wilson. The QB was sacked 41 times and played hurt for much of the season. The o-lines ineptitude cost the team at least a few games. Week 12 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers being the game where they played their absolute worst (if you don't remember this abysmal game consider yourself lucky. The game ended 5-14).

So, heading into the 2017 one would assume the Seahawks had spent most of the offseason upgrading the worst unit on their team. And try they did. Unfortunately, it appears that the team is still going to be terrible and frustrating when it comes to blocking.

The team picked center Ethan Pocic in the second round of the draft. They signed free agent Luke Joeckel, a former Jacksonville Jaguar lineman. They raved about second year player George Fant. They still had Justin Britt and awarded him with a new contract. One would assume they had a fifth starter in mind.

The thing is none of these moves are that impressive or really fix the offensive line. Ethan Pocic is a center. The only position where the Seahawks line was acceptable was center. Joeckel was a huge bust in Jacksonville. The Jaguars were so over him that they just let him walk. George Fant is a former basketball player with almost no football experience. He played poorly in 2016 and a huge improvement would only bring him to mediocre, but then he got hurt in the preseason. Britt is fine for an NFL starter, but he is no All-Pro.

During the season the offense will run hot and cold as drives are crushed by poor blocking and penalties. In the playoffs teams have good pass rushers and, without unexpected improvement by the lineman, Russell Wilson will have to scramble constantly. It will be up to the defense and special teams to shut down opponents and let the Seahawks squeak by with close victories. The margin for error will be tiny against quality opponents. If the Seahawks fail to make it to the Super Bowl this year it will certainly be because of their offensive line.

Why the 2017 Seahawks Will Win Super Bowl LII

The 2017 NFL season is fast approaching. My favorite team, the Seattle Seahawks, is a very talented yet flawed team. Even so they look like a favorite in the NFC yet again. If they do manage to win the conference championship and represent the NFC in the Super Bowl again it will be because of their defense.

During Pete Carroll's time as head coach and grand poobah of the Seahawks the team has consistently been one of the best defensive units in the league. They have led the NFL in scoring defense four of the last five years. Their one miss was last year when they still finished a respectablethird at 18.2 points conceded per game. Matt Calkins describes the Seahawksstrategy well writing, "Seahawks football — at least for the past five years — is keeping opposing offenses to single digits and driving them to madness." The Seahawks defense is best described with one word, dominate.>

All of the key players from the Seahawks historic run of defense dominance are back. Thomas, Chancellor, Sherman still man the Legion of Boom. Wagner and Wright still fly around the field making crazy tackles. The defensive line is still anchored by Bennett and Avril. Although all of these guys are creeping up there in age, none of them have yet shown signs of diminished skills. If they continue to avoid father times grip the team will dominate yet again.

Personally I am excited for the return of Earl Thomas. The small, but powerful safety proved how influential he is to the team's success when he got hurt at the end of 2016. With Thomas the team went 8-2-1. Without him they went 3-4, including the playoffs.  The team's defense never recovered from the loss of Thomas. The Falcons dismantled their defense in the playoffs. I don't think Falcons QB Matt Ryan could have marched down the field so easily with Thomas lurking. Entering 2017 Thomas should be all healed and ready to return to his old dominate self.

The greatness of the defense is further augmented by the addition of Sheldon Richardson. The Seahawks traded  away mediocre wide receiver Jermaine Kearse for Richardson, who is a Pro Bowl caliber defensive tackle. The knock on Richardson is his off field behavior. Assuming he stays out of trouble Richardson should turn the Seahawks great defensive line into a potentially historic one. I would expect the Seahawks to stymie ever running back they face up against.

The defensive line did lose to key contributors from 2016 in Cassius Marsh and Ahtyba Rubin. Both played well in 2016, but are no longer on the roster for different reasons. Rubin appears to be a straight up causality of the NFL salary cap. He was getting paid too much money to keep both him and Richardson on the team. Marsh, on the other hand, is a bit more surprising. He was traded to New England for draft picks. I thought Marsh was progressing nicely and added value to the d-line for a relatively cheap price.

Even with the loss of these two players I think the defensive line should be amazing. Bennett, Avril, Clark, and Richardson are proven NFL stars. All four could end up Pro Bowlers. Jarran Reed has been progressing nicely and rookie Nazair Jones offers exciting possibilities with his talent.

The Seahawks defenses under Pete Carroll will end up legendary. NFL fans will be telling their children about the Legion of Boom. Opposing quarterbacks will sing their praises on talk shows for years to come. Despite getting another year older the end hasn't come yet for Seattle's defense. This team still looks set to dominate the NFL and for that reason the Seahawks have a legitimate chance to win Super Bowl LII.

The Rise of Strikeouts

During the week of July 4th, on KJR, Seth Everett and Bill Krueger had a discussion about the rise of strikeouts in MLB over the last decade. They argued that the increase in strikeouts made the game less fun. More strikeouts means less balls in play, which means less athletic feats on defense or the base paths. Basically the rise of strikeouts has made the game more focused around the individual battle between the pitcher and the batter, which is slower and harder to enjoy for causal fans. From there the conversation progressed to their diagnosis of what was causing this rise in strikeouts. Both men agreed it was players chasing homeruns that caused more swings and misses. Their hypothesis got me interested and I started digging into strikeout, homerun, and walk trends over the last ten years.

First let me say, I agree with their original point. The huge increase in the number of strikeouts has made baseball more boring. Strikeouts are not rare or exciting anymore. Innings drag on when every at bat ends with a slow trot, with their head down in shame, back to the dugout. I would much rather see running catches in the outfield or diving stops in the infield. Watching tons of strikeouts every night gets boring.

Here are some stats to back up the rise of strikeouts. In 2016 teams averaged 8 strikeouts per game each. The batters for my favorite team, the Seattle Mariners, averaged over seven strikeouts per game every year between 2010 and 2016. The total number of strikeouts recorded in a season has risen every single year since 2007. There were 32,189 in 2007 and 38,982 in 2016. that is a rise of over 6,000 total strikeouts.

So Messrs. Everett and Krueger were right that strikeouts are raising every year and they are raising quickly. Are they also right that the chase of homeruns is driving the increase in strikeouts? I took a look at homerun totals in every year from 2007-2016. Teams hit 5,610 HR in 2016, the most in the last decade. However, unlike strikeouts HR totals have been a consistent trend. Instead they have been all over the place. The lowest of the last decade was in 2014 at only 4,186. The second highest was in 2009 at 5,042.

After reviewing these numbers I am convinced that the allure of hitting homeruns isn't causing players to strikeout. You can see this lack of a trend in Figure 1 where I plotted the league wide strikeout totals and homerun totals year over year. This plot makes it clear that homeruns aren't climbing at the same rate as strikeouts. Additionally I looked at the correlation between HR and K and found it to be a low positive 0.23. The means HR and K are tied together in a positive direction but only loosely. It is pretty clear to me that if people are striking out more often so they can hit homeruns they should rethink their strategy because homerun totals aren't rising.

Figure 1

 Next I took a look at the walk totals over the last decade. My theory was that maybe people were striking out more and also walking more often because they were just taking more pitches in general. The rise of the value of On Base Percentage (OBP) is well documented. Maybe players were trying to increase their OBP by drawing more walks (BB) and a side effect of this is an increase in strikeouts.

I found something shocking here. Walks are actually trending negatively. They are going the complete opposite way of strikeouts. In 2007 there were 16,079 BB. In 2016 there were only 15,088. Walk totals dropped every year between 2009 and 2014. They bottomed out at 14,020 in 2014. In that same year the league struck out the third most times in the decade. Figure 2 plots walk totals and strikeout totals every year between 2007 and 2016. You can clearly see the two trends are opposite. Additionally the two are barely negatively correlated at only -0.13. If players are striking out more often in an attempt to draw more walks they are failing badly.

Figure 2

 This all leads me to believe that the cause for the rise of strikeouts isn't related as much to the batters as it is to the pitchers. I think that the quality of pitching has been steadily increasing over the last decade and hitting has kept up. We already saw that strikeouts have risen and walks have dropped. It is easy to see how both of these phenomena could be attributed to increased pitching skill. Additionally the average fastball velocity in MLB has increased from 92 MPH in 2007 to 93.5 in 2016. Figure 3 shows the year over year change in average fastball velocity. Upping the speed of pitches makes hitting more difficult.

Figure 3

 Anecdotally the increase velocity can be seen by looking at the Seattle Mariners pitching staff. This year the Mariners have three relievers (Diaz, Altavilla, and Pazos) and one starter (Paxton) averaging over 96 MPH on their fastballs. It isn't shocking to see guys up near triple digits. In fact it has become the expectation that your relief pitchers are flame throwers. Guys who can't hit 95 need not apply for late inning relief.

Strikeouts have clearly risen over the last decade of major league baseball. The increased rate of guys failing to put the ball in play is making the game less fun to watch. The culprit for this hitting ineptitude doesn't appear to be batters chasing HR or trying to draw walks. Rather the overall talent of major league pitching has  steadily increased. Teams are featuring more hard throwers making it harder to put the ball in play. Batters have failed to keep pace with the quality of pitching in MLB which has resulted in more strikeouts and less walks and homeruns.

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference

The Sounders Should Keep Their New Formation

On July 19th, after falling behind by three goals in only 50 minutes against D.C. United , the Sounders substituted Nouhou Tolo and Kelvin Leerdam into the game in the 54th minute. These players took over the left and right defensive back positions from Brad Evans and Joevin Jones, who each moved up to an attacking mid-field role. That new formation resulted in four unanswered goals for the Sounders in the final 36 minutes. Moved forward on the field and relieved of his defensive duties Jones started making plays and notched up two assists. Brad Evans also got involved with the offense netting a goal of his own. The new formation worked great against D.C United and resulted in a historic come from behind victory.

Head coach Brian Schmetzer decided to keep the line up in the Sounders next match against the San Jose Earthquakes on July 23rd. The decision to stay with what worked the week before paid off for the Rave Green yet again. Seattle had a sustained attack against San Jose and looked more alive on offense than they have most of the season. Best of all Seattle scored another three goals and held their opponent scoreless grabbing a win.

So, in the roughly game and a half that Seattle has played with Brad Evans and Joevin Jones as attacking mid-fielders, instead of their more common defensive back positions, the team has scored seven goals and given up none. I think that much of the credit for this offensive explosion has to go to the new formation. It puts a better defender, in Nouhou, at an important position and allows Jones to focus on what he does best, driving up the left side and crossing balls in front of the zone. It also makes room for newcomer Kelvin Leerdam to get on the field and, admittedly based on a small sample size, put him in a position to maximize his contributions to the team.

Jones has had a hot and cold season. On the good side he has notched nine assists, almost all of them on crosses from the left side of the field into the box. Much of this is because so far this season the Sounders attack has focused almost exclusively on this tactic. They relentlessly push the ball up the left side to Jones and give him opportunities to cross it. With as many chances as he has had the nine assists aren't as impressive. Additionally Jones plays left back, a position that requires good defensive skill, something Jones has failed to show consistently in 2017. Number 33 is regularly out of position on defense, often because he hasn't hustled back from the previous crossing attempt. This poor defense has let to several goals by Sounders opponents this year.

The player replacing Joevin Jones at left back in both games is rookie Nouhou Tolo. Watching him play it is obvious he is raw and full of energy. He often makes aggressive decisions and has exaggerated effort, but it has been effective. Nouhou (who at only 20 years old has apparently already earned the right to go by only his first name) is usually in the right spot and he is willing to tackle to make a stop. He is already a better defender than Jones and with more experience he should continue to get better at defense. The one things I dislike about Nouhou's play is his continued attempts to score a goal from 40 yards away. The shots are always errant and have no chance of working. Again this is something coaching and experience should fix.

The other big change in the new formation is the addition of right back Kelvin Leerdam. The Sounders just recently signed Leerdam and the game against D.C. was his first with the team. He made his presence felt and did a great job shutting down the right side. Against San Jose Leerdam was even more impactful. He continued to play solid defense and use his speed move all around the field and shut down attackers. In his limited playing time he appears to be a very solid defender.

Also, Leerdam's massive throw ins led directly to two of the goals. Speaking of those throw ins, wow they are amazing. The guy can huck it like no one else I can remember on the Sounders. He can turn an out of bounds throw in into basically a corner kick. This is a huge advantage for the Sounders and should continue to lead to goal scoring chances.

Moving Jones away from the left back position and into an attacking role allows him to focus on offense and it mitigates the risk of him not being in the correct defensive position. The change also gives the team room for Nouhou and Leerdam to play and both of these players are superior defenders to Jones. Leerdam also brings his strong throw ins to the team boosting their offense. Overall the position change improves the teams chances of winning and I for one hope they stick with it.

Tony Romo Did the Right Thing

In April, coming off a major back injury that caused him to miss most of the 2016 season, veteran Quarterback Tony Romo announced his retirement from the Dallas Cowboys and the NFL. Romo has a gig as a color commentator lined up at CBS. At 36 years old Romo is at the point of his life and career where most quarterbacks begin to regress. Father time and the abuse of playing professional football catch up to them and their skills diminish. So, his decision isn't entirely unexpected. That said there were many that were shocked at Romo's decision. There are several NFL teams with bad to mediocre quarterbacks slated to started in 2017. More than a few of these would probably have been interested in giving Romo one last chance to start in the NFL. Tony Romo did the right thing by resisting the temptation to get back out on the gridiron and instead retiring.

Even in a league as beset with injuries and medical trauma as the NFL Tony Romo stands out as someone whose body took a severe beating. In 2010 Romo broke his left collarbone for the first time. He would go on the break the same bone twice more in his career, both in 2015. Romo also broke parts of his back three times in his career, in 2013, 2014, and 2016. NFL.com summed it up pretty well with this quote, "During his career, Romo played through broken fingers and ribs, a broken back and a punctured lung. He rushed his recovery from broken clavicles and fingers, often finishing games with a significant limp or hunch."

The glorification of Romo's toughness is a symptom of the NFL's dangerous worship of those players willing to continually put their bodies at grave risk for the good of the game. Romo should have probably retired years ago. Breaking your back once should be a wakeup call. When you break it a second time it is a flashing red siren to get out and let someone else take the physical punishment.  Waiting until now, after his third broken back, to retire is better late than never I supposes.

Hopefully Romo has a long and happy life outside football. I hope that Romo realizes how lucky he is to be able to walk and function as a relatively normal adult and decides to use his new position as a NFL game broadcaster to speak about the dangers of the NFL and the sacrifice that players make for the chance to entertain us.

I hope that Romo doesn't use his influence to voice a glorification of the violence in the NFL and the culture of toughness and manliness that it perpetuates. Americans need to see Romo as an example of someone making a decision based on his own personal health and celebrate it, not question his desire to win a championship. Romo did the right thing by retiring.

On Markelle Fultz

Some of you may realize that Markelle Fultz played basketball for the University of Washington last year, but many of you probably don't. Personally I have only a fleeting understand of who Markelle Fultz is and what makes him good at basketball. If it wasn't for Dave "Softy" Mauler on KJR, I probably wouldn't know anything about the young guard. That is a sad state of affairs because Markelle Fultz was just drafted number one overall by the Philadelphia 76ers. We should be excited and celebrating another Husky great being recognized by the NBA.

I never got to know Fultz as a player. The basketball team he was on was so bad that it was unwatchable. The Huskies routinely got embarrassed by their opponents. The team was so bad last year that the University fired long time head coach Lorenzo Romar and punted on the opportunity to have the best high school senior in the country come play for them in 2017. The team essentially quit playing defense halfway through the conference season. The only potential draw to watching them play was Fultz's NBA caliber talent, but that just wasn't enough to make me care about him or the team.

Don't get me wrong I am glad for the young man and I don't begrudge him at all. I hope that he has a spectacular professional career. However, I won't be rooting for him or following his exploits any closer than I do any other random NBA starter. He has no connection to me at all. I will never look back on the glory days of Fultz. I will never opine with friends about his place in the Pantheon of Husky greats. In fact, I expect, my only memory of him will be that he was drafted first overall by the Philadelphia 76ers.

On Colin Kaepernick's Lack of a Job

Colin Kaepernick was once a star quarterback in the NFL. In 2012, after he took over from Alex Smith, he led the 49ers to the Super Bowl. Although his team lost that game to the Ravens, Kaepernick had made a mark on the NFL fandom. He followed up his breakout Super Bowl run with two very solid years in 2013 and 2014. In those two years he threw for a combined 6,566 yds, 40 TD, 18 INT. Kaepernick also contributed with his legs rushing for 1,163 yds and another 5 TD. Although not elite, Kaepernick was definitely top tier, but then things fell apart in 2015. The 49ers and Kaepernick struggled to start the season going 2-6. The coaching staff benched Kaepernick after that and he eventually underwent surgery on his shoulder, ending the season on the IR. 

All that brings us to last season. Coming off his injury and the worst statistical season of his career, Kaepernick entered 2016 fighting for the starting job. That by itself would have been an interesting storyline. Then during a preseason game Kaepernick decided to sit in protest during the national anthem and all hell broke loose. Kaepernick was protesting the treatment of ethnic minorities in the United States. The quarterback's protest continue in various forms throughout the year. He pissed off a lot of fans, but inspired others. Regardless of what you think about his protest it worked in getting people talking about the issues and the place of political action in sports.

Coming into the 2017 season Kaepernick is a free agent able to sign to play with any NFL team that wants him. Several analysts, former teammates, and former coaches have said that Kaepernick still has the skills to play in the NFL. Additionally NFL contracts are not guaranteed so if any team signed him and found out he couldn't play they could cut him with little or no penalty. However, so far, no NFL team has offered him a contract. There could be lots of reasons for this, but one of them is definitely because of Kaepernick's decision to not honor the flag during the swinging of the national anthem before games.

Some teams like the Jets and Broncos are in great need of a quarterback and if only football related matters were considered should clearly sign Kaepernick. However, both of those two teams are run by strongly opinionated Republicans with a strong sense of nationalism and I think both were clearly biased against Kaepernick because of their political leanings.

(The Broncos main decision maker is John Elway, who is the Executive Vice President of Football Operations and the General Manager.  He is also a lifelong Republican and recently attended Donald Trump's inauguration. Elway also doesn't have a problem with mixing football and politics. As a recent example Elway wrote an endorsement of Neil Gorsuch to the United States Senate Judiciary Committee on Broncos letterhead. 

Woody Johnson is the owner of the New York Jets. He is a very active owner and is often involved in football personnel decisions. He is also is big time Republican donor and Donald Trump supporter. Johnson was rewarded for his party loyalty with being nominated to be ambassador to the United Kingdom. Johnson doesn’t strike me as someone that would put up with a person disrespecting the flag he clearly loves.)

As the decision makers for their respective teams John Elway and Woody Johnson have the right to not employee Colin Kaepernick, but when they make that choice it hurts their team's chances of winning. As long as they are honest that they chose to not sign the former 49ers QB because of his activism and not because of his football skills I don't see a problem with it. Just don't lie to us and him by saying it is a football decision.

It appears that other teams have chosen not to sign Kaepernick, not because of their own political beliefs, but because of the potential media and fan backlash that could result. They are afraid, right or wrong, that all the attention and controversy that comes with Kaepernick outweighs the potential football benefits. They view him as a potential distraction that would get in the way of the team concentrating of winning football games. They very well could be right, but for a team like the Houston Texans it seems like a gamble worth making. Without Kaepernick they are going into the 2017 with Tom Savage (someguy) or DeShaun Watson (a rookie) as their quarterbacks. They are taking the easy way out and hurting their teams in the process.

The third and final reason that teams with a need at the quarterback position could be avoiding Kaepernick is money he may be asking for. This reason is a lot more speculative as Kaepernick hasn't publicly stated how much money he wants to make. The assumption is that teams, like the Seattle Seahawks, that need a backup QB aren't willing to pay Kaepernick the amount of money he is asking for. He may be asking for starter money or even high end back up money. The Seahawks have a great starting quarterback in Russell Wilson and hope to never see their backup play a meaningful snap in 2017. If Kaepernick is asking for a large contract it doesn't make sense for a team like the Seahawks to sign him. Their salary cap limited resources are better spent on players at other positions.

All that being said and discussed I think it is a shame that Colin Kaepernick hasn't been signed to an NFL team yet. He is an upstanding citizen with strong well thought out political beliefs. He is someone willing to sacrifice for what he believes in and make very public and civil defenses of those beliefs. He should be a role model for us all. He should not be chastised for his actions.

Personally I was hoping the Seahawks would sign him. If the money was the issue I completely understand, but if it was because of the distraction factor or the front offices political beliefs shame on them. They should be able to see through nonviolent off field issues and make decisions that help the football team win.

For any of the NFL teams avoiding Kaepernick because of their politics or fear of distractions, especially the Jets and Broncos, it is a shame and has exposed yet again the hypocrisy of the NFL morality. Teams regularly employ wife beaters, drunk drivers, and other dangerous offenders, but they won't pay a brave nonviolent activist. Instead of trying to understand Kaepernick and the issues he brought up they are choosing to hide behind the shield of the NFL like cowards.

Jarrod Dyson is Fun to Watch

Speed in baseball is a under-appreciated talent especially on the Mariners for the last several years. The previous GM focused so much on power that he forgot what an important skill can be. By collecting lumbering power hitters the Mariners sacrificed runs. Fast players are able take an extra base and they can score when other slower players would be stuck on second or third.

The Mariners new GM, Jerry Dipoto, has recognized how valuable speed can be. He has filled the Mariners roster with athletic players. The whole outfield can fly. For me this has made the Mariners offense fun to watch again. They are getting on base (9th highest OBP in MLB) and scoring runs (10th most runs in MLB). Of all the new guys, outfielder Jarrod Dyson has been my favorite to watch. His defining characteristic, and why I love watching him, is he super fast speed. He is like ridiculous, blink and you'll miss him fast.

Whenever Dyson gets on base it is almost a guarantee he is going to steal second base. His walks and singles are as good as doubles. There is always a threat he might steal third base, something not many guys attempt anymore. As proof consider this, he already has 12 stolen bases, which is on pace for 45 by the end of the year. In 2016 the Mariners team leader, Leonys Martin, had 24 over the whole year.  Also Dyson has only been caught stealing twice. That is an 86% success rate for stolen bases, which is good.

Dyson's speed has also helped the Mariners by letting him score frequently. Despite having only 28 hits, 12 walks, and 8 HBP, Dyson has already scored 24 runs. That means he is scoring a run half the time he reaches base. For comparison's sake, the highest rate in the league is Trea Turner at 62.1%. Jarrod Dyson is ranked 14th of all eligible players for his run scoring percentage. That is almost entirely because of his speed.

As already alluded to, the problem with Dyson is he held back by his poor hitting skill. He is only batting .217 this year with an OBP of .318. In his seven year career he is only a .256 hitter. When you consider how fast he reaches first base, that average is low. Dyson doesn't make good quality contact frequently enough (only 17.8% of his hits are line drives) and he doesn't have any power (only 9 career home runs). I wish there was a way to improve Dyson's skills with the bat because once he doesn't get on base he is electric.

Dyson's speed is a huge offensive asset for the Mariners. He is able to turn single into extra base hits by outrunning throws and stealing bases. He is able to score runs on other players hits when most players would still be stuck on base. His speed is fun to watch and makes the game exciting. However, it would be even better if he could just get on base more often. His poor hitting prevents him from being great.

Sources: Fangraphs

NFL Passer Rating Data

Here

My 2016-2017 NBA Games: One Bust After Another

I don't watch a lot of NBA basketball. When I do watch it is usually something I planned based on the matchup or with friends. I don't dislike the NBA, but without a pro team in Seattle it is hard for me to feel invested. However, fans are tell me all the time how exciting it is. They insist the games are full of drama and excitement. However, that wasn't my experience this year. I have only watched four games and all four were duds. The closet final score differential was 15.

The first game I watched was back in November. The best team in the NBA, the Golden State Warriors, were set to play the Los Angeles Lakers. The game looked poised to be an exhibition of the Splash Brother prowess. I was hoping to see the Dubs in their full offensive juggernaut glory. Against a team like the Lakers (who ended up the third worst defense team at the end of the year) there seemed to be a chance that Steph Curry or Klay Thompson could drop 50 points. Instead I got treated to see the first time in 157 games157 games that Curry didn't make a three point shot. I got to watch the Lakers beat the Warriors by 20 points. Sure seeing D'Angelo Russell play adequately was kind of interesting, but it wasn't what I was hoping for when I decide to watch the game.

The next game I watched was a random Thursday night game in February. I was on babysitting duty and channel surfing during a nap. I found the Knicks leading the Cavs early. The first quarter was a high octane offense driven affair. The score at the end of one quarter of play was 34-33 Cleveland. Sure, I knew the Knicks were bad and they should have no chance to hanging with the Cavs, but that one quarter had got my hopes up. I decided to stick around and see what happened. What happened was the Knicks remember who they are and fell apart in the second quarter getting outscored 35-18. That score doesn't even do the quarter justice. Watching the game it felt like the Cavaliers outscored them by 30. Carmelo Anthony and Courtney Lee tried valiantly to bring the Knicks back in the third, but the Cavs were just too much for them to handle. After the first quarter it never felt close again. The Knicks ended up losing 119 to 104.

The third and final regular season game I watched was in March. The San Antonio Spurs were set to take on the Golden State Warriors. This matchup should have been a great one. The Spurs and Warriors are two of the best teams in the league year after year. At the end of the season the Warriors ended up with the Western Conference's number 1 seed, yet again, and the Spurs landed the number 2 seed. Unfortunately both teams decided to rest their starters robbing us of this potentially awesome matchup. Ian Clark was the Warriors leading scorer and Patty Mills lead the Spurs. Those guys are far from stars, but being the leading scorers for their respective teams doesn't have to be a bad thing. The game could still be interesting. However, the thing is the Warriors, one of the greatest offensive forces in basketball history, scored a season low 85 points and they lost by 22 points. The Spurs B-squad at least showed up to play. Other than Ian Clark the Warriors bench looked like trash.

Yesterday I decided to watch the Boston Celtics third playoff game against the Washington Wizards. University of Washington Alum and PNW basketball hero Isaiah Thomas is the Boston Celtics star point guard. Thomas averaged 28.9 ppg on 46.3% shooting during the regular season. In the first two games of the playoff series of Thomas scored 86 points. The guy is also only 5'9" (which is generous), which makes it all the more amazing that he is able to score so dominantly in the NBA where the average height is 6'6". But that isn't all. Thomas is also overcoming the recent death of his younger sister and getting one of histeeth knocked out during the first game of the series. I was excited to watch Thomas continue his run of stellar playoff run and build his epic narrative. Instead Thomas went 3 for 8 shooting from the field, scored only 13 points and the Celtics lost by 27 to the Wizards. On the bright side I got to see John Wall run really fast, shot poorly, and get fouled a bunch all while scoring 24 points.

Like I said before I have had rotten luck picking NBA games to watch this year. The closet final score differential was 15 (Cavs vs Knicks). In three of the four games the losing team didn't even score 100 points. The player that scored the most individual points in any of these games was Ian Clark. Basically every game I watched was a complete bust. So NBA, if you want to convince me that your games can be exciting show me a game that isn't a blow out and where the star players actually perform

Possessive Pluralization of Players

A common literary device used in sports commentary is describing a style of player with the possessive pluralized name of a player that shares the attributes. It annoys me. Every time I hear it I cringe. 

As an example to describe a fast and range outfielder a commentator might say something like "The Mariners outfield defense was subpar in 2016 so they decided to target your Jarrod Dysons and Mitch Hanigers." This pluralization is complete unneeded and it annoys me. Instead the broadcaster could say the Mariners add players like Jarrod Dyson. It is much more accurate because there is only one Jarrod Dyson. He isn't a commodity that you can buy at Target. 

Another example is something like this "The Patriots are a great team with their Tom Bradys and Wes Welkers". It is just annoying. The Patriots only have one Tom Brady and one Wes Welker. They don't have multiple of the same player. These men are unique individuals. Their other quarterbacks aren't of Brady's ilk, so don't pluralize it to allude that they are. 

Every time I hear people describe professional athletes as possessive plurals it irks me. Possessive pluralization of athletes grinds my gears. It is such an easy problem to fix, but instead of correcting it the trend seems to be growing. I don't know how we can stop it, but we need to and fast!

Which is Better, Scoring Goals or Preventing Them?

Soccer is new to many American fans. By viewers it still doesn't rank even close to the big three of the National Football League, Nataionl Basketball Association, or Major League Baseball. For comparison NFL game viewership dropped 8% in 2016 and was still 60 times larger than MLS (16.5 million for the NFL compared to 270K for the MLS). According to World Soccer Talk, MLS, the major domestic league, doesn't even have the highest TV rating in the United States for a soccer league. The English Premiere League draws more viewers than MLS. As such the general knowledge of the sport is still lacking in the US. Personally I have only been following the beautiful game since 2009 and only seriously since 2012 or so. That means there are some relatively fundamental questions that I still need answered. One of these is which is a better indicator of a team's success scoring a lot of goals or preventing the other team from scoring goal? Basically, does defense win Supporter's Shields and MLS Cup Championships?

Rather than just Google this question, I decide to take a look at data from 2007-2016. I collected every MLS teams wins, losses, ties, final conference standing, goals scored, goals conceded, and goal differential (the difference between goals scored and goals conceded). Using that I was able to look at whether goals for (GF) or goals against (GA) was a better indicator of MLS success. The answer, much like other major American sports it is better to have a good defense than a good offense. But do not just take my word for it. Let us look at the numbers to back it up.

Table 1: Average Rank of GF, GA, and GD by Final Conference Standing.

Take a look at Table 1 for a breakdown of the average rank of GF, GA, and GD for each final conference standing. Teams that finished first in their conference had an average rank in goals scored of 4.2 compared to an average rank in goals allowed of 3.8. So the teams that finished first were on average 0.4 spots better at defense on average. A similar separation held for all four of the top spots per conference. They all had higher average ranks for GA than GF. Basically good regular season teams stop other teams from scoring.

What about the playoffs? Looking just at MLS Cup Champions shows a similar difference between average rank for GF and GA. For MLS Cup Champions the average rank for GF was 5.9 compared to 4.2 for GA. That means MLS Cup Champions were on average 1.7 ranks higher on defense than offense. It appears that good defense wins championships in the MLS.

Interesting this GF to GA average rank flipped in the middle. The teams finishing fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth in their respect conference were all better at scoring goals than preventing them. This seems to make sense because those teams may be scoring frequently or not, but they are giving up just as many resulting in ties and losses. All those ties and losses result in a lower final place in the standings.

I also took a look at the statistical correlation between GF rank and GA rank and having the most wins, the most ties, and the least losses during the regular season. There was a strong correlation between having a high GF or GA rank and having a high wins rank. The correlation was stronger for GA to win total (.74) than GF to win total (.63), which aligns with the previous findings. The correlations for GF and GA to fewest losses also held with a higher GF correlating at .60 compared to a higher GA correlating at .76. That implies that not conceding goals helps teams avoid losing more than it helps them win, which makes a lot of sense if you think about it.

Interestingly there was no correlation between having the most ties and scoring a lot of goals. A higher GF rank had a .09 correlation to a higher number of ties. There was a weak correlation (.25) between prevent goals and having a lot of ties.  Both of these are basically just noise. It appears ties have more to do with the competition and less to do with a team's own strength.

The number one indicator of a team's success was its goal differential (GD). Teams that ranked high in GD also ranked high in final conference standing, were more likely to win the MLS cup and had a strong correlation (.81) to total wins. Teams finishing first in their conference had an average GD rank of 3.1. This was a higher average rank for the first place teams than either GF or GA. Team's that eventually won the MLS cup had an average GD rank of 3.6. Keeping a wide margin between the goals you score and the goals you concede is the surest way to find success in the MLS, which again makes a lot of sense. It doesn't matter as much if you are a powerhouse offense with a mediocre defense or a stellar defense with a blah offense, as long as you are scoring significantly more goals than you are giving up your team will be fine.

Looking at data between the 2007-2016 season I was able to determine that it better for your favorite soccer team to have a great defense than a great offense. Stopping the opponents attack is a better indicator of success than trying to outscore them. Good teams have a higher average GA rank than GF rank. However, GD is the most important rank of those I looked at. Being able to consistently score more goals than you concede by a wide margin is the most important trait for a team looking for success in the MLS. Teams can get to a good GD by either excelling at one side of the ball or the other. Teams can also achieve good GD with balance. But however they get there great teams have a high GD rank.

The NFL is Not a Paragon of Parity

The NFL sells their fans on the idea that the league is built on parity and equality more so than other professional sports leagues. The NFL has done such a good job convincing fans and journalists about this supposed parity that is has become conventional wisdom. People throw out that the league is built of parity frequently without having to defend their claim at all. The NFL certainly has superior equity when compared to say Spanish La Liga, the top tier of Spanish soccer. However, when the NFL is compared to other American professional sports leagues it doesn’t stand out as a stalwart of parity. The belief of the NFL system somehow leveling the playing field for all the teams is false.

Twelve teams make the NFL playoffs each year. Since 2007 all but three NFL teams have made the playoffs at least once (the three fan bases that haven't witnessed a playoff game in a decade are Los Angeles/St. Louis, Cleveland, and Buffalo). This looks like a good sign pointing to parity of play, but when we dig deeper into the distribution of playoff teams we find things aren't so rosy. 

Take a look at Figure 1 for a distribution of all the NFL playoff spots between 2007 and 2016. Of the 32 total NFL teams just 9 have taken up over 50% of all available playoffs spots. Even more illuminating, two teams, the Packers and Patriots, have been to the playoffs nine out of ten chances. Those two teams are eating up 15% of all available playoff spots just between themselves. If all things were equal they should have taken only 6%. The continued dominance of a few top teams has taken away potential playoff spots from the rest of the league.

Figure 1

All these stats do not prove that the NFL is not a leader in competitive equality on the field of play. The way to see this is to compare the NFL to other professional American sports leagues. The league often held up for its dominate teams that can just buy championships is MLB. Writers, and radio hosts often whine that MLB quality is open to the highest bid and small market teams are priced out of competition. So how does MLB compare to the NFL?

Between 2007 and 2011 eight teams made the MLB playoffs. For 2012 and on ten teams have made the playoffs. This ratio of playoff spots to league size closely compares to the NFL. Also much like the NFL 9 out of 30 MLB teams account of 50% of all available playoff spots. The top three teams, the Dodgers, Yankees, and Cardinals, have each been to the playoffs six times in the last ten years account for 20% of available playoff spots. MLB also has a few cellar dwellers. Three teams that have failed to make the playoffs since 2007, The Mariners (ouch), the Marlins, and the Padres (at least our natural rivals are struggling also). 

Figure 2 shows a similar breakdown of MLB playoff teams between 2007 and 2016. It is pretty clear that the NFL and MLB are very comparable in their frequency of playoff teams. In both leagues a few teams are perennial powers taking far more than their fair share of playoff berths. Instead of suppressing the post season appearances for the whole league, these champions are eating up spots left open by weaklings at the bottom that seem unable to get out of their losing ways. For both there is a large chunk of middling teams bouncing in and more frequently out of the playoffs. In both leagues the expected number of  appearances for any given team is right around 3 (3.75 in the NFL and 3 in MLB). In the NFL 16 teams have made the playoffs between 2 and 4 times, while the number of teams is 19 in MLB. This shows that large group of middle tier teams.

Figure 2

The NFL is not bad at keeping all their teams competitive, but comparing them to the supposed worst of the other American leagues at maintaining parity of play, MLB, the NFL is not a clear winner. In fact the NFL is very comparable to MLB. The NFL and MLB both have a few dominate teams that appear in the playoffs every year and a few terrible teams that just can't figure it out. However, most of the league just sits in the middle reaching the playoffs about as frequently as we would expect if all things were fair. The sports media needs to stop parroting the NFL's marketing message of it being some sort of paragon of parity. The facts just don't back this claim up.

It's Still Time to Let Lorenzo Romar Go

The University of Washington's Men's Basketball team has had a long slow spiral down the drain. Their loss to UCLA by 41 points cements them as a truly bad team. Not only have the Huskies become a bad team they have also lost relevance (I know I for one don't bother to watch games anymore). In years past people would talk about the Husky men at work and at bars. Sports radio would do whole hours on the team. The team used matter to the sports scene in Seattle. Those days are gone.

All of this is especially sad considering the team continues to have top level recruits pass through the program on their way to the NBA. We have had the opportunity to watch future stars in the making lose more college games than they win. In 2016 the team had two NBA first round draft picks in Dejounte Murray and Marquese Chriss and they were still unable to make the NCAA tournament. The 2017 feature Markelle Fultz, the consensus projected number one pick in the upcoming NBA draft, yet the team is the worst they have been in years.

When all the players that has suited up and played for the Huskies recently is considered it becomes obvious that talent is not the issue. Instead the blame falls on the coaching staff and their inability to get these premier players to mesh together as a team. Ultimately that blame falls completely on head coach Lorenzo Romar, who has been a constant on the team throughout their decline. It is time for the university athletic department to cut bait and let Romar go.

Many will defend Romar because of his early success with the program. Others will defend him because of his stellar personal character and leadership. Both of these reasons seemed valid a few years into this downward trend, but after five straight years, and soon to be six, without an appearance in the NCAA tournament they have lost their weight.

The other commonly cited reason I hear to keep Romar in charge is ability to continuously recruit top tier high school talent. After all he has managed to bring NBA prospects previously mentioned to UW. Those are the kind of player that usually goes to Duke, UNC, Kentucky, or UCLA. More proof of his prowess is next seasons incoming class that feature Michael Porter, probably the best high school player in the country. Romar recruits players to UW like he is running a blue blood program.

The allure of having Porter in Purple and Gold is enough for many fans to want to risk keep Romar as the head coach for one more year. The see the potential for greatest that a player of Porter's ilk presents. The thing is Romar has recruited players like this before and has failed to find success with them. There is nothing to make us believe that Romar will find some secret formula over the off season to suddenly find success with uber talented freshmen. In fact his track record suggests the exact opposite.

Recruiting all these amazing players is pointless if they don't win games. These players stay only one season (I don’t think they should even have to do one season in the NCAA) and then jump to the NBA and its riches. So, the fans develop little to no report with them because our time with these guys is so short. Any attachment we might develop is further squashed by the lack of victories. There are just no marquee moments to look back upon. No event ties them to the school history. Romar's talent at getting 17 year old to commit to a year at UW is rendered moot by the results on the hardwood floor or Hec Ed pavilion.

The losing for the men's basketball team has grown tiresome. The fans, myself included, have stopped watching games. The most surefire way to fix this problem is to let Lorenzo Romar go. The Huskies need a new coach that can actually turn a collection of individually talented basketball players into a competitive team and win games. Romar's past on court successes, strong moral fiber, and recruiting coups do not justify the continued losing.

The Patriots Expose One of the NFL's Dirty Secrets

The NFL prides itself on the supposed parity of play in its league. They constantly reinforce the narrative that on any given Sunday any NFL team can beat another NFL team. Every year is a new year and your favorite team has a shot at winning the Super Bowl. Sports commentators eat this up and spew it right back out. They constantly parrot the NFL's lines about parity. As I have written before all this talk is just marketing hogwash when it comes to the bottom of the league, but it also applies to the top tier teams. The NFL is no more a of level playing field than any other major American sport. By winning Super Bowl LI the New England Patriots exposed the myth of NFL parity for all to see.

In the 16 years since they beat the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI the Patriots been to 6 another Super Bowls and won another 4. That is just Super Bowls. If we look at just the playoffs the Patriots have been dominate as well. They have made the playoffs 14 out of 16 seasons. One of the seasons they missed was 2008 when they won 11 games, but lost out on tie breakers to the Dolphins and Ravens. Basically the Patriots have dominated the NFL for 16 years and made a mockery of the concept of parity.

It is time to stop repeating the same banal sound bites about the league being one of equivalent talent where any team could win. It is time to admit that the NFL is as lopsided and dominated by super teams, like the Patriots, as every other league. It is time to find a new and original way to describe the power distribution of NFL's teams.

Source: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/

Seattle Seahawks 2016 Season Recap

The Seahawks divisional round playoff loss to the Atlanta Falcons was a very fitting end to a very up and down season. The loss highlighted all the problems that that team had during the 2016 regular season. To those watching, the way the game played out was all too familiar. The offensive line failed to protect Russell Wilson or provide consistent run blocking for Thomas Rawls. The playing calling gave up on the run really early and made the team one dimensional. The defense failed to get consistent pressure on Matt Ryan and allow a quick passing attack to rack up big yards. The defense also failed to stop the Falcons from converting on important third downs, regardless of the yards to go. 

The result was not too shocking to me, but I was still disappointed. In my head I knew the Seahawks were going to lose to the Falcons. They were just too flawed of a team to win the Super Bowl, let alone beat good team like the Falcons on the road. But in my heart I hoped that the Seahawks might surprise us. Maybe the pressure of the playoffs would get to Matty Ice, or a freak turnover would change a low scoring game. Alas it was not to be and the 2016 season came to an inglorious end in the Georgia Dome.

The Seahawks showed signs of brilliance during the regular season. They went to New England and beat the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. They dominated the Carolina Panthers 40-7 at home in CenturyLink Field. Doug Baldwin showed he is a legitimate number one receiver totaling 94 receptions and 1128 yards.

However there were also several lows. The Rams beat the Seahawks 9-3. The Green Bay Packers shellacked the Seahawks 38-10. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense to 3 points and those were only because of a short field gifted by a turnover. Maybe worst of all, by ranking 25th in the league in rushing yards, the Seahawks lost their identity as a run first power football team.

The Seahawks players, coaches and executives have a lot of improvements to make over the 2017 offseason. First and foremost they need to drastically improve the offensive line. They need to find more depth in the secondary. They need to cut Jermaine Kearse. Finally they need to figure out, either through play calling or personnel, how to stop other teams on third down. Without these changes the Seahawks 2017 season looks to be much like the 2016. A bumpy ride filled with highs and lows, but ultimately ending in an early exit from the playoffs.

All is not bleak and despairing in Seattle. There is lots to be encouraged by heading into 2017. The Seahawks front office has been one of the best in the league at making changes and improving their team year in and year out. Head Coach Pete Carroll and General Manager John Schneider are one of the best teams in the league. They have consistently been able to add quality players through free agency and the draft, with the only glaring weakness being the offensive line.

On the players side things are also looking good for next year. The team's defense is still anchored by players in the primes of their careers such as Earl Thomas (currently age 27), Kam Chancellor (age 28), Richard Sherman (age 28), and Bobby Wagner (age 26). The teams quarterback, Russell Wilson, despite an injury hampered 2016 regular season, is one of the best in the league. With Doug Baldwin has his primary target, Wilson has a star to throw passes to. The these players give the team a great starting point coming into 2017.

The 2016 season culminated in a fitting loss to the Atlanta Falcons in the Georgia Dome. The Seahawks showed all of their most aggravating weaknesses as the game played out as expected. The defense was unable to handle the dominate offense of the Falcons and the Seahawks offense could not get past their own ineptitude to keep the score close. Despite being a frustrating season that ended on a low note things look good for the Seahawks heading into 2017. They will still be the team to beat in the NFC West because of their super talented core of players and their smart front office.