2012 Seahawks Offseason Check-up: QB situation

It is now customary for all players and fans in attendance to rise for Russell Wilson as he enters the stadium on his golden chariot led by Shadowfax, the lord of all horses.

Most of this blog's immense fan base are probably unaware that the chief editor, Matt Swanson, flew me out to New York back in January to cover the 2012 Super Bowl. The Super Bowl was so unimpressive that Matt ended up asking me to temporarily re-locate to the New York area with company funds where I was to use my sophisticated investigative journalism techniques to uncover exactly how the Giants won and expose the genius of Tom Coughlin.

After nearly nine months of exhaustive data analysis and one-on-one interviewing I've come to a revealing conclusion: The Giants really aren't that good. Tom Coughlin actually isn't that smart. They were able to limp into the playoffs and get hot at the right time. Also, the Patriots didn't play very well. Now take a few minutes to digest these puzzling findings before you continue reading.

So this is why I have been in dereliction of my duties covering the Seahawks. I see that Kevin has been moving in on my turf and rather than comment on his good posts I'd rather just contribute with my own.

On Russell Wilson & Rookie QBs

Should we really be so surprised that Russell Wilson legitimately beat out Matt Flynn in the competition for the starting job? After all, Wilson was one of the most mentally prepared and technically sound QBs in the 2012 draft class. Echoing common themes from Moneyball, it was the bias of conventional scouting against his height which kept him from being a potential 1st round talent right behind Andrew Luck and RGIII. It stands to reason that his 5 to 1 TD-Int preseason total and decimation of the Chief's defense -which was ranked 12th in DVOA last season- are honest indicators of his promise.

Yet a lot of the opposition within the fan base to Wilson starting has been less about him specifically and more about the principle of starting rookie QBs in general which worries them. I think this argument fundamentally confuses correlation and causation. Rookies QBs don't typically fail exclusively due their own inexperience and mental aptitude. They typically fail because they're drafted onto very bad teams and are asked to be the savior of the franchise. Every once in a while you get a Cam Newton who defies the odds and manages to almost single-handedly uplift the franchise. But more often than not you get Alex Smith and Tim Couch results.

Wilson won't be asked to constantly overcome score deficits in a pass-heavy talentless offense with minimal run support. Instead he'll be playing behind a much improved offensive line, a dominant run game in Lynch, and a potentially elite defense. At minimum Pete Carroll is asking him to avoid turning the ball over and, at most, to decisively move the ball down field where an assertive run game will enable savory play-action opportunities.

Yes, Wilson will make some rookie mistakes. But as Kevin points out, his big-play potential should more than off-set this and, more importantly, he'll gain necessary NFL experience where we can more accurately evaluate his potential as the Seahawk's franchise quarterback.