Opposing Perspective: Why the Mariners Traded Pineda

"Who do I play for?"

I've always enjoyed reading USA Today while I eat lunch, and among my favorite pieces is the weekly arguments they stage between high profile members of the conservative and liberal political establishments.  No matter their points, the bickering continues without fail thanks to the fact that it cannot be proven that one side's view is better than the other.

In much the same way, the Michael Pineda trade has no right answer right now.  In terms of talent, it is more or less a straight wash: the Mariners got the best young player the Yankees have and a solid starting pitcher prospect for the (arguably) best young player the Mariners have and a solid starting pitcher prospect.  The question here cannot really be solved, but all in all people seem pretty beat up about this.  Understandable, I know, as Pineda was a bright spot last season and everybody likes dreaming about what young guys could become (remember Jeremy Reed?  Damn him).

However, don't be swayed by such poppycock as Kevin.  What credentials does he have, besides the exact same ones I do?  Regardless, the Pineda trade is something to feel good about.  Pineda had a great rookie year by all accounts, and probably should have been the Rookie of the Year if people looked a bit deeper than they did (Jeremy Hellickson?).  However, not to say he'll blow up, but young pitchers are fairly dangerous.  The list of guys to come out with a strong rookie year, only to hurt themselves some and never pitch again or become a shell of themselves is endless.  Pineda faded a lot during the second half too, something that, regardless of whether his arm was tired or whether batters were adjusting, is worrisome for his future development.  Keep in mind, his ERA jumped a whole point over his last 12 starts, which, even with it ending at only 3.73, is definitely a cause for worry.

His replacement in the Mariner's rotation, Hector Noesi, certainly isn't the strikeout pitcher that Pineda is (few are), but he is a solid option and not a ridiculous downgrade.  Noesi has a higher HR/FB percentage at 10.2, something that very easily could drop thanks to Safeco's lovely confines rather than Yankee Stadium's ridiculousness, and the reverse may be true (though I doubt it thanks to his strikeouts) for Pineda.  Essentially, we got a league average pitcher back in Noesi, which in Safeco often ends up looking a whole hell of a lot better (on a side note, I really miss Doug Fister.  Man, that guy has become quite a pitcher).

All this, and we haven't even mentioned Jesus Montero, the prize for the Mariners.  Simply put, he can hit the ball as well as anybody.  For a few years now, he has been the best ranked hitting prospect in baseball, and he hasn't disappointed.  The guy came up to the Yankees as a 21 yr. old and had a 165 wRC+ (100 is league average).  He will definitely drop off at least a little this season from his crazy call-up numbers, but even so Bill James sees him as a .289/.351/.505 hitter with 26 homers for this upcoming season, and I would love to have that on our roster, be it as a terrible catcher or solid DH.  Sure, he will take time away from Carp, Smoak, and Wells in various capacities, but Smoak has done very little to impress me and I doubt all three of them will become good enough players to be starting full time anyway.  If we get lucky, maybe GMZ is looking to move on of them (or Trayvon Robinson) for a third baseman so we can make Seager the Mark McLemore-type he should be.

There is definitely potential for this trade to backfire.  Montero could get fat and worthless.  Pineda could become one of the best pitchers in baseball in its biggest market.  That random 18 yr. old we traded could become even better (its technically possible).  All in all, however, its not a bad return for Pineda and a gamble I'm willing to live with.