Success or Lack There of, for NFL Teams Coming Off a Bye Week

One common thread of insight in NFL analysis is that teams coming off a bye week have an advantage against their opponent. The reasoning behind this theory is the extra week of rest allows the team to recover from injuries and scheme for the upcoming opponent. When given two weeks to watch film and prepare of an opponent's defense an NFL coaching staff should be able to develop the strategies needed to between them. However, I was never convinced that the bye week actually gave teams an advantage. So, I decided to look into the data from all 32 NFL teams over the five season between 2010-2014 (2015 was excluded because when I created the data set there were still teams that hadn't had a bye). I wanted to know if the conventional wisdom was right.

Shootyhoops Basketmakers: The NBA's Most Fuckable

NBA PILFs

It only takes a few games before any basketball fan starts to think of the most important factor in one’s enjoyment of the sport: which NBA players do I most want to fuck?  There are a thousand factors in any basketball game, for both the players and fans, but this is the question at the core of the very sport.  Many have gone insane trying to rank every NBA player, while men like Mike Fratello long ago realized exactly who was their number one PILF and refuse to let any know, lest they lose their chance at glory.

For new fans, this can be a daunting hurdle to overcome in basketball fandom.  Granted, it is much easier to simply abandon the sport than work out if Thabo Sefolosha is more sexually attractive than Damon Stoudamire.  These are important questions and questions that must be answered.  Any society that believe itself to be advanced absolutely must consider which of its basketball players are the most fuckable.  Certainly, this is a much easier question when thought of as a singular answer; that is, there must be only one correct answer to this, as only one NBA player is truly who you want to fuck. 

If this were true, there would be no problem at all: the answer is Chandler Parsons.  However, this ignores the real issue here.  Every NBA player needs to be ranked by how fuckable they are in comparison to their fellow professional basketeers.

Is personal taste involved in such a question?  Is it a completely subjective idea that cannot have a perfect answer?  No, of course not.  There are very exacting standards that must be agreed upon by all and cannot be argued in any way.  Fuckability is objective, especially in NBA players.  If you believe otherwise you are the devil.

For the layperson looking to be laid by a person, there are a few important parameters to keep in mind.  The rankings listed below[1] follow a very well thought out and not at all ridiculous set of measurements as to just why one player is more desirable than another.  This is a scientific study done for the good of mankind.  About which NBA player you would rather fuck.

Shootyhoops Basketmakers: The 1977-78 Philadelphia 76ers

The Pinnacle of Basketball

The 70s were a time when just about no one cared about basketball for any number of reasons.  It was a time with a number of strange characters in the league but no real legendary teams or players, at least for the most part.  This is, however, due to most people overlooking what was the greatest collection of basketball players to ever exist.  I am talking, of course, about the 1977-78 Philadelphia 76ers[1].

To understand the beauty of the 76ers, one must start at the top: Julius Erving.  The founder of Orange Julius and the first medical doctor to play in the NBA, Erving could do just about anything he wanted on the court.  Famously, Erving was able to hold the ball out of bounds as he leapt along the baseline and still twist it around for a layup.  This was an amazing feat, especially considering that he would leap along one baseline before blinking out of existence and reappearing in mid-air beneath the opposite basket.  His physical gifts were so that it still boggles the mind to see what he was able to accomplish.  He also had a significant afro, even in an era of afros.  Even Darnell Hillman admitted that yes, that is a pretty good afro.

The No Longer Invincable Legion of Boom

It is amazing how fast things can change in the NFL. Just last year, 2014, the Seattle Seahawks defensive secondary was so feared in the NFL that teams developed game plans that excluded long passing, shut off whole sides of the field, or just gave up on trying to throw all together. Heck, even this year in week 3 the Chicago Bears decided that their best chance to beat the Seahawks in Seattle was having their QB Jimmy Clausen pass only nine times in the first half. The Legion of Boom, the Seahawks secondary, was feared. In nine short weeks the Legion's reputation has been completely shattered. They have gone from being feared to being a weakness teams try to exploit.

In week twelve, the 49ers decided to have Blaine Gabbert throw 34 times. Gabbert completed passes of 31 and 36 yards. In last weeks game against the Pittsburgh Steelers Ben Roethlisberger threw it 55 times for 456 times for a passing yards record at CenturyLink field. The Steelers completed passes of 41 yards, 40 yards, and 69 yards. They attempted several other big pass plays that fell incomplete. The 49ers and Steelers obviously had no fear of the Seahawks Legion of Boom.

The reason for the change in reputation is this season string of agonizing fourth quarter collapses. Before the Steelers game every quality quarterback that had played the Seahawks had been able to beat them with passing in the fourth quarterback. Watching Rogers, Dalton, Newton, and Palmer were all able to march own the field and score at will against the previously impenetrable Seattle pass defense. Watching the Seahawks fail has obviously given opposing teams confidence in their ability to beat them in the air.

There are lots of theories for why the Seahawks secondary is worse. It could be Kam Chancellor hold out. It could be the promotion of Kris Richard from secondary coach to defensive coordinator. Maybe Richard Sherman and/or Earl Thomas are still suffering from last seasons injuries. Personally I think it is the price of paying three All Pro level talents (Sherman, Thomas, and Chancellor) has caught up with the Seahawks and prevented them from field a competent corner beside Sherman or nickelback in passing situations. Cary Williams and Marcus Burley are clearly worse than Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurman.

Whatever the reason the Legion of Booms aura of invincibility if clearly gone. Fans can no longer rest assured that any fourth quarter lead is safe. I hope the Seahawks front office regains their magic touch and figures out a solution to return them to their dominance this off season.

Shootyhoops Basketmakers: Darryl Dawkins

First Contact

In the 1950s, the United States and the USSR were embroiled in a bitter space race.  Both were desperate to prove their superiority over their rival in any way they could.  The Cold War was in full effect, and nowhere was it colder than in space.  Why both sides decided to define “Cold War” so literally is anyone’s guess, but still.

There is Always Next Year

One of the great things about sports is that teams get a chance to start anew every season. Your record from the previous season is whipped away and you start fresh with a 0-0 record just like all the other teams. Your team has a chance to win it all. This perpetual refresh of the records lets fans continue to hold out hope for the future. Even if the current season is going poorly there is always next year, when things will be different.

After the Seahawks loss on Sunday Night Football to the Arizona Cardinals I find myself convince that the 2015 season is, for all intents and purposes, over for my beloved NFL team. Sure, they are not officially eliminated from the playoffs. The Atlanta Falcons could continue their free fall and the Seahawks could maybe sneak into the playoffs as a wild card. Even if they did manage to pull off that impressive feat it would mean that to get to the Super Bowl they would have to win three road game in a row against playoff caliber opponents. This is highly unlikely.

 

All season, with the possible exception of the game against the Dallas Cowboys, the Seahawks offensive line has been terrible. As I discussed in an early post Pete Carroll and John Schneider really blew it with this year's offensive line. They seemed to think their track record of finding diamonds in the rough and developing stars was enough to let them turn two defensive players and a tight end into an NFL quality offensive line. It completely backfired.

Instead of the offense featuring a punishing ground game followed by explosive plays through the air, we have had to suffer through one of the most inept and truly awful offensive performances by the Seahawks since before Mike Holmgren was the coach.  The line consistently make drive killing penalties. When they aren't doing that they are blocking with the skill of a matador. Defenders find themselves in the backfield at unbelievable speeds. The offensive line forces the Seahawks into situations with 10+ yards required to convert over and over again.

The Seahawks offenses inability to sustain drives and stay on the field has impacted the defense.  The Seattle defenders are asked to play 35-45 minutes of the game. Their stamina and conditioning is constantly put to the test and it has failed several times this year. The volume of snaps they are asked to defend means they are bound to make a mistake eventually. The other team's offense just has too many chances to figure them out. This has resulted in five blown fourth quarter leads in five Seahawks losses. Yes, every Seahawks loss has come in the fourth quarter.

However, not all of the defense's problems can be pinned on the big boys tasked with defending the trenches. The defense is not as deep or as talented as in years past. The Legion of Boom only has four interceptions through nine games. Former All Pro cornerback Richard Sherman still doesn't have an interception, though he has had plenty of chances slip through his fingers. Byron Maxwell's replacement, Cary Williams, has looked somewhere between mediocre and bad. Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett are playing at the highest levels of their careers, yet there isn't much in the way of depth on the defensive line. When Avril and Bennett need a breather the pass rush is noticeably worse. The defense just isn't as good this year.

Quarterback Russell Wilson has struggled this year. Instead of taking the expect next step to the true upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks, Wilson has regressed. He is missing throws to open receivers. He forcing balls that have little or no chance of being caught. Many of these issues can be at least partially attributed to the offensive line. They have failed so miserably at protecting their quarterback that he appears to be getting anxious in the pocket. He doesn't wait for routes to develop. He avoids pressure that doesn't exist. He fumbles the ball in crucial situations. However not all of the problems can be blamed on Gary Gilliam et al. Wilson has played worse on his own as well.

Some people think he is distracted with off the field issues. Others think he is finally running out of the luck that propelled him to two consecutive Super Bowls. I think he is just having a down year at the most inopportune time. Whatever it is Wilson is clearly playing at a lower level than we have come to expect in Seattle.

All of this negativity and complaining brings me back to my opening thoughts. Sure, the Seahawks are bad this year. Their team's talent is too shallow and their offensive line too horrendous for them to have any legitimate chance at winning the Super Bowl. Their once dominate defensive has started to come back down to earth and their talent quarterback is struggling through a slump. However, they still have some key pieces in place.

Their quarterback is young and talented. Just a year ago we were debating if he belonged in the list of top five quarterbacks in the whole NFL. The Seahawks key defenders are locked up for the next few years and their front office has shown a knack for finding guys in free agency and the draft. Rookie running back Thomas Rawls has shown signs of having the skills required to replace Marshawn Lynch as the cog that makes the offense work. Things aren't all bad in Seattle. There are signs of good things to come. They should be able to make a run in the near future. There is always next year.

Shootyhoops Basketmakers: David Thompson

David Thompson, All-Seeing Time Lord

In the early 1970s there came the dawn of a new era of basketball and perhaps no player represented that era better than David Thompson.  Thompson was a new evolution of the basketball player, spending his time either dunking the ball or snorting cocaine[1].  What set Thompson apart as a trailblazer was his most consuming hobby: time-travelling.

Andrew Luck, the Runner

Normally on this blog I try to keep my posts objective. Through statistics I attempt to provide evidence for my arguments.  For today's topic I am going to abandon that style and instead focus on the good old fashion eye test. I will throw in a few stats here and there, but definitely less than I often do. Basically what I am trying to say is I dont have any hard proof that Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is a good runner, but after watching him on Monday Night against the Panthers I am convinced he is.

Andrew Luck has made his name from his passing abilities. Coming out of college he was heralded as one of the most complete and NFL ready quarterbacks in years. Before he even threw an NFL pass, people were comparing him to Rodgers and Manning. Once he started actually playing in the league the results didn't disappoint those singing his praises. Behind Andrew Luck the Colts made the playoffs in each of his first three seasons (2012, 2013, 2014). With his gaudy numbers and his team racking up the wins, analysts primarily focused on this throwing abilities.

However, in 2015 Andrew Luck has struggled with his on field play. He is missing reads and throwing bad interceptions. Generally it has appeared that Mr. Luck has regressed in his skill level. However, in one key and often overlooked area the Colts QB is still among the best at his position, that is running the football.

In his career Luck is only averaging 19.8 rushing yards per game. For comparisons sake lets take a look at the 2014 QB rushing leaders. Russell Wilson led QB by rushing for 53.1 yards per game. As many fans know Russell is kind of an anomaly among NFL QBs. He has a crazy good ability to turn what appears to be a 5 yard sack into a 15 yard gain with his feet. But just because Andrew Luck's running stats dont line up well with DangeRuss doesn't mean Andrew Luck isn't a good runner. So let's look at a few other QB stats.

In 2014, among quarterbacks, Andrew Luck had the ninth most rushing yards per game.  The quarterback right above Luck on the leader board was Case Keenum.The one right below was Geno Smith. Not bad company to be around, but definitely not proof of a talented runner, but the stats don't tell the whole story.

The real proof of Andrew Luck's running ability comes from watching him play. He has an ability to successfully identify when he should tuck the ball and run. This routinely helps his team by extending drives with his legs and picking up first downs.

When he does choose to run Luck is actually surprisingly fast. He can get into gear and pull away from pursuing linemen. He is also a big man. He is listed at 6'4" and 240 lbs, which is only 5 lbs less than Cam Newton, another giant who is praised for his size. At that size Luck isn't an easy guy to tackle so he can pick up tough yards.

During the fourth quarter of the 11/2 Monday Night Football game, Luck brought his Colts back and forced overtime. The Colts ended up losing in overtime, but a lot of this almost come back was because of Luck's ability to run. He only had 35 yards rushing, but they were key yards. Luck was able to take off running towards the side lines, avoid or out run Panther defenders, and step out of bounds for a gain. The key was he kept gaining yards and stopping the clock.

Luck's running on that Monday Night impressed me, but it wasn't the first time I had seen him carry his team with his legs. As I have mentioned he routinely does this. I know they dont want to risk injuring him, but the Colts should consider designing a few runs for Luck. He has the speed and size to pick up yards. The threat of the run would help open up the passing game so Luck could take advantage of his traditional strength. Andrew Luck is a surprisingly good running quarterback.



Sources: Yahoo Sports, Wikipedia, Pro Football Reference

A Few Tidbits from Around the Web: Punting

Football season is in full swing. High School, NCAA, and NFL games are happening all over the place.  There have been lots of exciting plays and even more exciting finishes (especially if your team is playing the Seahawks). For some reason the recent weeks have have had a disproportionately large number of weird punt plays. So, for that reason this edition of Tidbits will be focusing strictly on punts.

• On Sunday October 18th, The Indianapolis Colts were in a tight contest with the New England Patriots. During the third quarter on a fourth and three the Colts decided to run a fake punt. The play they ran to try and convert the fourth down was possibly the worst designed play ever. The head coach has since said they weren't supposed to actually hike the ball, but that doesn't matter because they did hike the ball. Fail.
• Michigan vs Michigan State is a fierce rivalry. Traditionally Michigan has dominated, but for as of late "little brother" Michigan State has had the upper hand. Coming into this years game Michigan State had won 6 of the last 7 competitions. This year it looked like Michigan was finally going to top the highly ranked Michigan State, until disaster struck during a punt on the last play of the game.
• This video is old,but it is good. Seahawk's punter Jon Ryan used to play for the Packers and he was really good.
• Somehow with five games played in 2015 the San Diego Chargers have only 3 punt return yards (click the link and scroll down to the bottom to see).

Pete Carroll Fails, the Seahawks Offensive Line is Terrible

It is time for the experiments on the Seahawks offensive line to stop. We know that Pete Carroll, John Schneider, et al are football geniuses. They can spot talent that no one else can. They have proved it time and time again. However, not everyone can get it right every time and when it comes to the offensive line the Seahawks coaches have got it all wrong.

Currently the Seahawks have three players (Nowak, Sweezey, and Gilliam) starting on their offensive line who didn't play       offensive line in college. The Seahawks decided that the raw athletic talent that these three guys possess was enough that they could turn them into NFL level lineman. The coaches thought they could mold them into competent starters and get great value at expensive positions. If it had worked this would sure be a great success story, but instead it has been an utter failure.

On every single offensive play the Seahawks Russell Wilson is put at an increased risk of getting injured because his linemen are unable to even slow down the opponents pass rush. Wilson has already been sacked 18 times in only 4 games. At that paces he will go down for a loss 72 times in 2015. That is a ridiculous amount. His previous season high for being sacked is 44.

Also all those sacks don't count all the other hits Wilson is taking. Sacks aren't recorded when Wilson throws it away right before getting drilled, which is happening a lot. Even though the stats don't show it, Wilson body is still feeling it. He can't continue to take this punishment forever. His play is going to suffer. If he somehow manages not to get injured he is sure to get gun-shy. The constant beatings add up.

The Seahawks are lucky they have Wilson. Without him they would probably be 1-3 and none of those losses would have been close. A slower less mobile QB wouldn't even stand a chance back there. Think of Carson Palmer or Tom Brady. Guys like that would never even get a pass off. Instead we have Wilson who is able to evade onrushing defenders and throw complete passes on the run. His skill and athleticism is saving the Seahawks from humiliation.

As I have repeated stated, the Seahawks offensive line is terrible. That is entirely on the coaching staff. They chose to trade away Pro Bowler Max Unger and let quality players like Chris Carpenter walk without bringing anyone competent in to replace them. It isn't Gilliam, Nowak, or Sweezey's faults they were thrown into NFL games to play positions they don’t understand. Taking a gamble on one guy being able to successfully convert would have been worse the risk, but attempting the conversion on three guys is irresponsibly risky. Pete Carroll should have seen this awful mess coming. Everyone else in Seattle did.

With their current offensive line the Seahawks coaching staff has been a complete failure. Their attempt to find market inefficiencies and succeed by saving money on the line by converting players to the position has been a failure and is putting their star QB at risk for injury. Seahawks are playing with fire and if they don’t change something soon they are going to get burned.

Shootyhoops Basketmakers: Wilt Chamberlain

King Kong Ain’t Got Shit on Wilt

The most dominant player in the history of the NBA may be the one interesting thing about basketball’s early years, if for no other reason but the sheer absurdity of his stats.  This is not to say that Wilt Chamberlain is the greatest basketball player of all time: while he is certainly in the conversation for such a meaningless honor, he may not quite be at the level of some of those yet to come.  He was, however, dominant in a way that will never been seen again thanks to his unique nature.  Wilt[1] was one of the first highly skilled seven-footers, able to make plays his fellow monstrosities were too cumbersome to attempt.  His high school career was so storied as to create college basketball.  Before Wilt’s high school graduation, no one had ever considered having sports teams at a college competing with other colleges.  Wilt was such a talent that many schools realized that having him attend their university and play basketball would probably be good for their reputation.  This is why, upon his graduation in 1955, roughly 100 college basketball programs sprung up around the country. 

Shootyhoops Basketmakers: the Era of the Celtics

The Era of the Celtics or: Terrifying Basketball Robots Take Over

In the mid-50s, a man named Red Auerbach came to power.  Red was a simple man.  He had grown up the son of a dry cleaner and so had undergone the usual bullying that accompanies one’s father being a piece of laundry equipment.  However, that very connection to the mechanical shaped Red into the basketball mastermind he would one day become.  After adopting the last name “Auerbach” after sneezing loudly while in line at the DMV, Red joined the Navy and began coaching the academy’s basketball team.  Red loved the military efficiency that his team played with but couldn’t help but noticing how all those intricacies of being human got in the way.  Players would miss games for family emergencies or because they had been run over by a train.  Sometimes the point guard would relay the wrong play or make a poor decision.  To err is to be human, and Red Auerbach would have none of that.

Pictured: Red Auerbach

For you see, Red wanted one thing: to win.  He had the heart of a champion.  And with that heart, which he had torn from the chest of Joe Louis in 1938 and kept on display on his mantle, Red knew he had what it took to dominate the NBA.  For you see, the NBA had the same problems that Red was having with his Navy teams: everyone playing the game was entirely too human.  Red drew on his childhood roots to fix this problem.  In 1946, when Red was hired to coach the Washington Capitols of the BAA, he began work on his robot army.

Shootyhoops Basketmakers: George Mikan and the Era of Who Gives a Shit

A devout Catholic, George Mikan ended up as one of the first superstars of basketball.  Mikan did things that his predecessors had never imagined, and that his descendants would imagine and do in way better, more entertaining ways.  Mikan came to basketball during an era where nothing about it was fun, due in large part to everyone being too stupid to realize that tall people could dunk and that African-Americans should probably be allowed a part in all this.  He averaged 23 points a game in his career, which is all the more impressive when you consider he had a worse field goal percentage than Jamal Crawford.  As a general rule of thumb, anyone with a worse field goal percentage than Jamal Crawford is not worth your time and should be ignored.

Astute readers may notice around this time that there is a vast swath of time that has been skipped between Dr. Basketball’s invention of the sport and George Mikan’s professional debut in 1948.  If these smarmy, holier-than-thou readers would take a second to look at the history of basketball in that time, they will find that oh God is it ever awful.  Really, all of basketball before the 1960s was a colossal waste of time in terms of enjoyment even if it did keep the vampires at bay.  To get a good idea of how much fun basketball was during that time period, please read The Great Gatsby, a research paper by high school student Steven “Willy” Williamson on The Great Gatsby by F. Scott Fitzgerald.  When you have finished it, read it again and continue doing so until you have read it at least 15 times without breaks.  This is how exciting basketball was.

Wake up, we're almost done here.

In Praise of Zach Scott

Zach Scott is basically the living embodiment of grit. He is the David Eckstein of the MLS. The guy routinely out works and stops opposing attackers with much more skill and athleticism. He does this with a combination of hard work, dirty play, and tenacity. Like I said grit.

Scott is one of the few players to join the MLS squad from the USL version of the Sounders when they upgraded leagues in 2009. Since than he has played for the Sounders in every single one of their MLS seasons. Now 35 years old and an MLS veteran, he is the only guy left from the USL days. He has survived and at times flourished.

Throughout his tenure with the Rave Green the team has routinely tried to replace Scott. Just this year they started the season by moving captain Brad Evans to centerback, a position Evans had never played professionally. After that experiment failed the Sounders returned Scott to the starting eleven. Later in the season the Sounders snagged Ramon Torres to take over at centerback. Torres last a few games before getting injured and now Scott has regained his position. Scott is a boomerang in the backfield. Whenever the Sounders try to get rid of him he just keeps coming back and I for one am fine with that.

Scott's game is always physical and it can be dirty. He often pulls and pushes opponent. Going up against the Sounders centerback opponent's striker know they are in for a long day full of bumps and bruises. Zach Scott plays right on the edge of getting a card and he does often pass the line and end up with a yellow, but his style is effective. He gets the job done.

As previously mentioned, Scott is the living embodiment of toughness. On the September 19th game against the White Caps the Sounders broadcast team filled us in on this little tidbit, Scott had been playing most of the season with a broken foot.. Yep, you read that right, Zach Scott Seattle Sounders defender has been playing the 2015 Major League Soccer season with a broken foot. During this season he has started 13 games and played in 17 games. That is some freaking toughness coupled with insanely high pain tolerance and possibly unwise medical practice.

A guy like Scott brings something to a team. He sets an example and inspires others to keep fighting. His on the field skills may not be the best, but they get the job done. I for one hope Zach Scott continues to overcome the odds and contribute effectively to the Sounders. A team without his toughness holding it all together just wouldn't be the same.

Shootyhoops Basketmakers 2: The Beginening

THE BEGINNING

In the beginning, there was nothing.  Then several hundred million years passed and we got around to inventing basketball.  Nothing much happened in those years, outside of the dinosaurs being killed off by George Gervin.  Regardless, to truly understand mankind one must start with the invention of basketball.  To start anywhere else would be silly, especially because you are reading a book about basketball.  If you want to start with Beowulf or something, why don’t you go read a book about Beowulf[1]?

A movie about Beowulf.

The Seahawks Play Offense: A Preview

The NFL season is upon us, bringing us another season filled to the brim with domestic abuse, backhanded business practices, extortion, severe brain injuries, and TOUCHDOWNS!!!!! ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!?

This man is gainfully employed.

Seahawks 2015: Another Great Defense

The Seahawks regular season is fast approaching. So, it is time to preview the Seahawks new team. I am going to focus on the defense, wihch looks to be a dominate unit once again. They will dictate the Seahawks success, much like they have for the past three years.

This season, the success of the defense has one giant question mark surrounding it; Will Kam Chancellor play or will he continue his hold out in a quest for more money? The defense should be great either way, but with the Chancellor of Pain on the field they have a chance to the best defense of all time.  I am serious about that. Last year's team led the league in fewest yards allowed per game and fewest points allowed per game. Even so, this year's team could be better. Even if Kam doesn't show up they should still be great. The rest of the talent is just to good. This review will assume Chancellor isn't going to play.

Shootyhoops Basketmakers

Basketball: An Introduction

Basketball.  Long considered our national pastime, it has become more than just a sport to most of America.  Indeed, it has come a long way from its humble beginnings as a way to satiate the bloodlust inherent in those over 6’5” by allowing them to take it out on a ball that looked suspiciously like the head of a Indiana vampire.  Nowadays, basketball is used for any number of things in our nation.  From proving who can jump the highest to giving Greg Ostertag a stage to be laughed at by the general populace, basketball has truly sunk its spindly, lecherous claws into our collective consciousness.

A Proposal to Change Penalty Kicks

To a sports fans raised on traditional American sports like football and basketball, many things about soccer seem strange. The game doesn't fit nicely into the expectations of many American fans. As I have grown into being a soccer fan I have come to terms with most of these oddities. It doesn't bother me that the time limit is arbitrary and up to the official. I don’t stare in confusion when a player standing out of bounds touches a ball that is in bounds and play continues. However, one thing about the beautiful game still frustrates me, the disproportionately game changing power of a penalty kick.

Goals in soccer are hard to come by. When a team does score the strategy of the game changes immensely. The leading team often stops attacking and drops back into defense making it even harder for the opponent to put one in the net. Their counter attacks and offensive positions become about time wasting. If a team manages to get up 2-0 the lead becomes almost insurmountable. At 3-0 forget about it. The training team isn't coming back. In their current form, penalty kicks are essentially free goals. Which is to say massively powerful game changing events.

If an offensive player is fouled inside the other teams penalty area the offensive team is awarded a penalty kick in front of the goal. The placement of the ball is only 12 yards away and the offensive team is allowed to have any of their eleven players on the field when the foul was committed take the shot. This means they can pick their best shooter, regardless of their involvement in the play to attempt the shot. This would be like the Clippers getting to let Chris Paul shoot free throws every time DeAndre Jordan is fouled. Additionally the goal keeper must remain on their goal line until the ball is touched. All of the players not involved in the penalty kick have to remain outside the penalty box and behind the shooter. (FIFA rules)

All these rules add up to making it exceedingly hard for a goal keeper to stop a penalty kick. As of 8/27/15, in MLS the penalty kick save percentage of keepers that have played in at least 10 games is a measly 25% (55/73). Keepers are forced to just guess a side and dive. When a penalty kick is stopped it is essentially luck. This results in some funny looking attempt to stop the penalty kick as keeper dive hard to the opposite side the ball is shot to. As mentioned before a penalty kick is essentially a free goal.

The goals scored on penalty kicks are game changers. They can propel a team that is being thoroughly out played into a lead. The value of goals and the difficultly of stopping penalty kicks has led to an epidemic of players flopping in the box. Attacking players in the penalty box will go down at the slightly touch hoping to trick a referee into award a penalty kick. They know the potential reward of a goal far outweighs the risk of a yellow card for embellishment. This incessant flopping is another annoy part of the game. Nobody wants to watch professional athletes rolling around on the ground faking injury.

There is a simple change that soccer could make to the way penalty kicks are taken that would reduce the effectiveness of the shooter and make the punishment more fairly meet the crime. The player who is fouled in the box should be required to take the penalty kick. If the Earthquake foul Lamar Neagle and the Sounders are award a penalty kick Neagle should have to take the kick. The Sounders shouldn't be allowed to let Brad Evans or Clint Dempsey shoot.

Some might complain that a truly hurt player may be required to take a shot. Well there are very seldom actual hurt players in soccer. However, if someone actually did get hurt they should be allow a few minutes to try and walk it off. If they can't than they should have to sub off. If your team doesn't have any subs left, or doesn't want to use one, then the player should have to sit for a minimum of 3 minutes.

The idea of making the fouled player take the shot is a very American solution, so FIFA and the European leagues will never go for it. Additionally changing anything about the way soccer is played is essentially a cardinal sin in many fans eyes. They will scream about Americans not understanding and the beauty of tradition. MLS is probably also not going to adopt a rule change that brings them away from the international norm. The American league wants so dearly to earn the respect of its older and richer cousins in Europe. The potential mocking from the Old World is too great of a risk. Sadly this means the change will probably never happen, but a fan can still dream.

I Don't Care About NFL Preseason

There is an interesting phenomenon going on in Seattle this summer. The NFL preseason has started and people are selling tickets to the games at and above face value. In past NFL seasons tickets to Seahawks preseason games have been basically free. Season ticket holders are forced to buy preseason tickets along with the regular season games. Rather than go to these games the ticket holders would sell them at reduced values. If you knew a season ticket holder they would often just give them to you. On StubHub you could grab a few for around $20 each.  This year they are holding onto the tickets or trying to sell them for a profit. This strange behavior is endemic of the greater attitude surrounding the Seahawks 2015 season. People were pumped for the first preseason game against the Broncos. They were having blue Friday and smack talking Broncos fans. They were full of pride and ready to root their team on, in a preseason game. Despite all the hoopla surrounding the preseason I still cant get into the games.

I have never been able to get into preseason football. Much like spring training in baseball it isn't worth my time. The games are still at least three hours long. I can easily find something else to do with my three hours than watch third stringers battle it out for a position on special teams. I don’t need to see some third string rookie play with my own eyes.  I don’t care who wins and who loses because they provide no predictor of regular season success. Instead I will just read about the results and analysis the next day.  I will still get to know who played well and is looking to make an impact on the regular season and who has under-performed.

Every year there are some previously unknown players that shine in preseason. Sports media starts hyping them all over as a breakout candidate. People talk about them all over town, beaming about their potential in the upcoming season. Very few of these preseason stars ever pan out. Instead they fail to make the team or do nothing in the regular season. Their names are forgotten by week four of the regular season. By not having watched them play I miss out on being a contributor during a couple of weeks' worth of preseason games, but that is it.

The results of the games don’t matter. After each team has played four preseason games the records are wiped clean and regular season starts. Going 4-0 in the preseason doesn't give your team a head start or even a tie breaker in the regular season. The NFL doesn't hand out trophies for winning in August. The results of the preseason games are not indicative at all of what they are going to do in the regular season. You would rather a team go 4-0 than 0-4, but it doesn't really matter. Try looking up a database of historical preseason results. It is hard to find one. Pro Football Reference doesn't keep records of the games.

The recent Broncos vs Seahawks preseason highlights all the reasons I don’t watch the preseason games. The Broncos, who are expected to have one of the best offenses in the whole NFL, didn't start their best QB, WR, or RB. The Seahawks star QB, Russell Wilson, threw one pass. Instead Wilson's backup Tarvaris Jackson played for a while before getting hurt and then some guy names RJ Archer came in and playing the rest of the game. There is basically zero chance that RJ Archer plays in the regular season. Watching him play against some Broncos third stringers tells us nothing about the Seahawks upcoming season. Additionally the results of the game, a Broncos victory count, for nothing. The Seahawks have still won the last two contests that count against the Broncos. No amount of preseason wins will outweigh a Super Bowl victory and a regular season win.

None of this is to say that you shouldn't watch the preseason. If you find enjoyment in the events, than by all means spend your time rooting for your team to beat the opponents in the preseason. To each his own. For me, I just can't get excited for the preseason. The price of not seeing the game is not great enough to outweigh the cost of not doing almost anything else.

Fernando Rodney has Been Bad

The Fernando Rodney Experience has always been a thrill ride. Throughout his career he has had a way of building up the drama and the tension during all of his appearances. For the last several season he has managed to get himself out of the jams he creates and post some of the best results based stats in MLB. However this year the Experience has turned into a straight up horror show.

Looking at the normal stats Rodney's year has been terrible. He has an ERA of 5.50, 4 blown saves, and has managed to lose his job as the closer to a rookie. These stats show us how bad he has been but don’t give us a clue as to why. Let's dig deeper into the advanced stats to find a source for the abysmal performance.

Looking at Rodney's advanced stats we can see that his pitch selection this year of 64.3% fastballs and 35.2% changeups is right in line with his career averages. As far as pitch selection goes he doesn't seem to have changed anything. So it doesn't seem to be an issue with the pitch type he is throwing but instead what is happening to those pitches after he throws them.

During Rodney's career his ability to throw faster than most other pitchers has been one of his biggest assets. Rodney throws fast, with lots of movement, and with medium amounts of control. This has made it hard for opposing batters to catch up with his pitches and actually make good contact. They were left guessing, which has let him rack up strikeouts.

This year Rodney's strikeout percentage (K/9) is down. He has only been able to ring up 7.00 batter per 9 innings. This is his lowest rate since he was a rookie. However, his walk rate (BB/9) is holding steady. We see him giving up 4.25 free passes per 9 this year, which is actually slightly below his career average of 4.40  So he still isn't able to control his pitches, but that randomness isn't resulting in confusion for the batter anymore.

Let's take a deeper look at his pitches. His average fastball speed is 95.1 mph compared to his career average of 95.7 mph. He doesn't appear to have lost the speed that brought him success. However, his swinging strike rate (SwStr%) is down to 8.2% from a career average of 11.3%. Despite still throwing hard Rodney isn't able to make people miss and when a batter doesn't miss a 95 mph fastball bad things can happen.

In 2015 Rodney is giving up home runs on 16.2% of the flyballs that batters hit (HR/FB). This is a really high percentage. Of qualified relievers, Rodney's HR/FB is 13th worst in all of MLB. Additionally, this high rate isn't something to be expected. His 2015 number is the highest of his whole career. The previous worst was 12.8% with 2005 with the Tigers. Over the last five seasons the worst rate Rodney has posted is 7.1%. In recent history he has actually been pretty good at preventing homeruns.

So what does this all mean? If you want to remain optimistic it means Rodney has room to improve. He can work on regaining the movement of his pitches. Also he is probably going to stop giving up so many dingers. He has a good sample size and a recent run of success saying giving up homers just isn't one of his weaknesses. Basically Rodney has just had a string of self really bad luck that has been exacerbated by a changing in his pitch movement.

On the flip side, if you want to be a pessimist, this probably means Rodney has lost something and he probably isn't getting it back. The ex-closer is 38 years old now and the league has figured him out. He is showing that he can't make a baseball dance like he used to. Now instead of making batter look foolish he is giving those that can catch up to 95 mph something they can drive. When you can line up a 95 mph fastball you can make it soar, often into the stands.

Decreased swinging strikes and increased HR/FB are a receipt for bad results, which is exactly what Rodney has had so far.  Regardless of what you think the future holds for the Fernando Rodney Experience one thing is for certain, he was terrible in the first half. Let's hope something puts an end to the horror show.

Sources: Fangraphs

Expand the All-Star Skill Competitions

Tomorrow, July 14th, is the MLB All-Star game, which is being played in Cincinnati this year. The approach of this game got me thinking about All-star games in general. The concept of getting all of the best players in a professional league together and having them play an exhibition game seems like a good one. However, all three of the major sports leagues, NBA, NFL, and MLB, have generally boring All-star games. None have held my interest in years. However, all of the leagues do feature various skills exhibitions (e.g. Home Run Derby and Dunk Contest) prior to the actual game. These events are fun to watch. I try to make sure I see them every year. I think it is time we just cancel the NBA and NFL All-Star games and just focus on skill events.

The various All-Star games have turned into drawn out and boring affairs filled with lackadaisical performances and too many commercials. The play is sloppy and subpar. Only MLB manages to put on a watchable show. In the NFL and NBA games the defense is basically non existences which takes away a major part of the sport. The primary factor for this is the fear of injury. None of the stars or their teams want to risk injury in a game that doesn't matter.

Sports like basketball and football are very team centered games. Throwing together All-Star caliber players and asking them to play together with little or no practice is bound to result in a sloppy game. That is exactly what the NBA Al-Star game and NFL Pro-Bowl are. In the NBA there are turnovers and missed shots galore. Basically players start playing hero ball and isolation. You miss out on the beauty that is the fluid game of team Basketball. The NFL's game is full of blown routes and missed throws. You can't ask a group of players to gel at the level required to create great football.

It would be terrible for the fans the teams and most importantly the platers to suffer a major injury  during a basically meaningless game. Imagine the outcry if a star quarterback suffered a major injury during the Pro Bowl because some DE wanted to prove he was the best pass rusher in the league, but instead got caught on a block and awkwardly rolled into the knees of the passer. In an instance the team next season is wiped out and potentially the players next payday and future financial security. It doesn't make sense to play hard defense during and All-Star game and risk season or career altering injuries. That means it also doesn't make sense to play the game at all.

The skills competitions that the leagues put on have little or no risk of injury. The NBA's skills competitions are probably the most dangerous. The Dunk Contest, Three Point Contest, and Skills Challenge all require running and physical effort near game level to compete. However, they are all performed by world class athletes in a non-defended and non-contact environment. Guys shouldn't get hurt throwing down a 360 tomahawk jam.

Speaking of 360 tomahawk jams, watching Dunk Contest is fun. Although the event still has way to many commercials and takes longer than it should, it is generally a good time. Similarly the MLB Home Run Derby is a fun spectacle for a summer evening. I witnessed the events live at Safeco Field in 2001, it was a blast (pun intended). In both leagues they are able to bring out stars to compete in most of the events (the NBA does fail to do this in the Dunk Contest from time to time). This allows fans to see their favorites, while putting them in different non game situations that are fun to watch. It is way more fun than the All-Star games.

One of the things the that hurts the NFL's All-Star experience, the Pro Bowl, is a lack of a skills challenge. They eliminated the events after the 2007 events. Reading online it appears that the NFL never gave a great explanation for why the competitions were ended. Now all they have left is a boring no touch version of a football game that nobody watches. Clearly they cancelled the wrong events.

MLB is the only one of the big three with an All-Star game that shouldn't be eliminated. The baseball game is interesting for the first couple of innings when all the starters are still playing. However, by about the 5th or 6th all the best players are out and the game starts to drag.

Even with the only All-Star game worthy of surviving, MLB should considering expanding their skill competitions. Currently the only one is the Home Run Derby. They could easily add a fly ball or ground ball shagging contest. Imagine Andrelton Simmons and Elvis Andrus seeing who could scoop up the most grounders and make an accurate throw to first. Maybe points for range and accuracy of throwing. The league could easily add a stolen base race. They could have Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton see who can go first to second fastest. I would tune in to see that.

Two of the three majors leagues, the NBA and the NFL, should seriously consider cancelling their All-Star games. All three should instead focus on skills challenges. This would give players more time to rest and heal, while providing fans with a fun break from the regular season. It would eliminate the yearly complaints about none of the players giving any effort during the games. It would still give fans a chance to see the stars and enjoy the fun the comes with these slightly silly events.

The Sounders Success is Bound to Clint Dempsey and Obafemi Martins

Three weeks ago the Seattle Sounders were the best team in Major League Soccer. They sat upon the points leader board with 29 points. Their attacking duo of Obafemi Martins and Clint Dempsey created such consistent pressure on the opposition that the teams occasional defensive lapses were hidden. Martins and Dempsey were just so good that they raised all the other players around them to a higher level. They were clearly one of the best duos in the league and the pair was the key to the Sounders success. Then on June 16th in a US Open Cup match against the Portland Timbers the wheels came off the cart.

Games against the Sounders chief rivals, the Portland Timbers, are always tense. The players take the rivalry as seriously as the fans and on the field the matches can be foul filled affair where tempers flair. This Open Cup match up was no different. The Sounders had three players ejected including an incident where Dempsey ripped up the referee's book. His action caused MLS to suspend him for three games. The game also saw a hard foul on Obafemi Martins result in an injury and him being carted off the field. At the end the Sounders only had seven men on the field.

The loss to the Timbers was a disappointment to be sure. The Sounders have owned the US Open Cup during their MLS life. The players and coaches take the competition seriously. However, the US Open cup result was disastrous more so because of the loss of Dempsey and Martins than the actual scoring outcome. Both players will miss a minimum of three games, all of which have been Sounders losses. Most likely the pair will miss six games each, which could set the Sounders really far back in the standings.

The absence of Martins and Dempsey has made it painfully clear how irreplaceable they are to the team. They are the keys to the entire Sounders team. In the three games without Dempsey and Martins the Sounders have managed just one goal and conceded seven. The offense is flat and the defense is struggling to keep opponents from scoring chances.

As the single goal highlights, the forwards just cant cut it. None of them have the skills required to create scoring opportunities for themselves. The two main fill-ins, Lamar Neagle and Chad Barrett, are finishers not creators. They lack the vision and instincts to find scoring opportunities. Their is no one left to feed them the ball. The Sounders offense has looked confused and directionless, with their possessions often ending in an errant pass.

On the flip side, without the attacking pressure created by Martins and Dempsey the defense has cratered. The side was already short-handed because of the injury to Ozzie Alonso, which has resulted in a huge downgrade in the center of the field. However, without Martins and Dempsey, the defense is giving up a huge amount of quality shots and forcing Stefan Frei to make way to many saves. Frei just isn't good enough to stop the on-slot. The key to the defense was a strong counter attack that kept the opponent from sending more than a few attackers forward. With the offense floundering the defense is seeing a lot more of the opponents players in the offensive zone.

The magic that led to the first places standing three weeks ago is gone right along with Martins and Dempsey. When they are missing it is like watching a completely different team. If it was ever in doubt, the scoring duo's absence has solidified into fact that they are the keys to the Sounders success. Seattle's soccer hopes and dreams rise and fall with Obafemi and Clint.

Lebron James is the Best Basketball Player in the World

During a press conference following the Cleveland Cavaliers game 5 loss Lebron James stated what everybody else was already thinking. His exact quote was "I feel confident because I'm the best player in the world." Personally I think he might be silly to feel confident, especially when you consider the other scrubs currently donning Cav's jerseys, but he is definitely right about the  best player part. His effort in the NBA Finals should put to rest any debate about Kobe or Durant being better than James.

Through five games he is averaging 36.6 ppg, 12.4 rpg, and 8.8 apg. He is probably performing at the highest level of any player ever in the NBA Finals. As the USA Today points out, he should win the series MVP regardless of the eventual Champion. He has clearly been the Most Valuable Player on the floor. Lebron James has turned what could have been one of the most boring and most lopsided Finals since last year (try to remember the Heat vs Spurs series, you might have blacked it out).

Although I am rooting for Golden State to win (their style of play is just way more fun to watch), I won't be upset if the Cav's force a game seven in California.  This series is so much fun I dont want it to end. I want to keep seeing how long James can keep this up. Although I suppose it is good it maxes out at seven games. I don't want to energy being exerted by James to do am permanent damage. I want him to come back and put on a show again next year because Lebron James clearly is the best player in the world.

A Few Tidbits from Around the Web

Time for some links to sports related articles and a video clip that I find interesting. I think you should click them and digest the content. Then, if you happen to see, we can talk about your favorite bits.

• Floyd Mayweather recently won his 48th professional boxing match against Manny Pacquiao. Despite his win in the biggest fight in recent history, Mayweather is still a terrible person. We should all remember that he is a serial women beater and never pay money to watch his fights.
• This New England Patriots fan makes a case for why the Tom Brady suspension is ridiculous. Although I shutter while I type this, I have to say he does make a few good points. 
• In case you think I have gone soft on Patriots fans, here is another piece pointing out how delusional many of them are.
• In game seven against the Memphis Grizzlies the Warriors punched their ticket to the Western Conference championship. The game was a good one and highlighted exactly why the Warriors are so great. It also had an amazing bit of ridiculousness when Steph Curry drained a 3/4 court shot with time expiring in the half.

Soccer Statistics: A New Era

Advanced statistics have been making their way into every sport over the last ten years or so, and it's all Billy Beane's fault.  The fact that Billy Beane doesn't have anything to do with it (and probably isn't even all that great as a GM) doesn't matter here: what matters is that stats have taken a great leap forward.  In baseball, it's commonplace to talk about BABIP and team's are shifting more than ever before.  In basketball, team's finally realize just how valuable the three-point shot is, especially on Daryl Morey's NBA 2k fanboy Rockets, who refuse to take any shot that isn't a dunk, three pointer, or Josh Smith doing whatever it is he gets paid for.  In hockey, we have uh...uh...Deryk Engelland being considered a hockey player still.

So it's not a perfect world, to be sure.  One of the toughest areas for advanced stats to take hold has been in soccer (or, as the English call it, crisps).  This isn't because of any sort of good ol' boy traditionalism so much as it is that it's really, really hard to measure things in soccer.  Normal counting stats like goals or saves exist, but tell you almost nothing about the game.  Clint Dempsey gets a goal for this just as much as he does for this.  Passing numbers are nice to look at too, but there isn't really a ton to be gained from knowing Andres Iniesta completed 7000 passes in a game other than that Barcelona loves possession just so much you guys.  Plus, it can be hard to break into soccer because so much of the skill is in the little things.  Basketball's great because you can obviously see when a good play is made and can understand where advanced stats are coming from.  Soccer relies so much on things like a good first touch that it can be hard to really know what to look for.

There needs to be more accessible, informative statistics for soccer, really.  American sports fans love the fantasy aspect of sports, where we can argue about why Michael Beasley is better than Corey Maggette even while knowing in our heart of hearts we're both wrong.  Stats are wonderful.  That's why we need more of them for soccer.  Here's just a few that can really make any person's fandom that much better.

Seventh Round Mock Draft

The greatest sporting event of the year is here!  The NFL Draft begins tonight!  Hope springs anew amongst all fans.  Yes, it is truly the best weekend of the NFL calendar starting today.  That is, the best weekend excluding any of the weekends with games and, more importantly, all the weekends without games in which we don't have to pretend we're not ok with rooting for spousal abusers to run for 100 yards a game.

By now, there have been more than enough mock drafts written.  Every expert has weighed in and, by now, everyone knows exactly what will happen in the first round.  Therein lies the problem, however. The first round is all taken care of, but nobody pays attention to all our favorite rounds!  Anyone can say that Buccaneers should draft Jameis Winston or JaMarcus Russell or Ki-Jana Carter, all can't miss NFL superstars.  It takes a real expert to know what will happen in the draft's final round.  That's when all the players we truly care about are drafted anyway.  Marques Colston, Trumaine McBride, DeVon Harrison, and Scott Mruczkowski are all pillars of our NFL fandom and only one of them is a made-up name.  That's why Unique Sports Theme Name is committed to giving you the most comprehensive, most accurate Round 7 Mock Draft that has ever been written.  Be wary, as the revelation that we can see the future can be rough for some.

Why Aren't You Rooting for the Bucks?

The Milwaukee Bucks are God's chosen gift to basketball.  After last night's stirring defensive performance, the Bucks have won two straight games over the Chicago Bulls to get back in a series they were down 3-0.  Are they going to win?  No, of course not.  It's almost unheard of in the NBA for a team to come back from down three games to none, having occurred only once since the first round became a best-of-seven series.  Outside of Mark Cuban's nightmares, it's pretty much impossible.  However, that doesn't mean that the Bucks are anything but the best thing.  They may be essentially doomed this season, but it's never too early to think ahead for what bandwagon to get on.  Everyone likes to look down on bandwagon fans, which means now is the time to hop on so you too can act like you're better than everyone else the next few years.

The Mariner's Starters are just Not that Good

Heading into this season the majority or fans and media seemed to think the Mariners starting pitching was going to be great. Lots of local talking heads held them up as one of the best pitching staffs in major league baseball. So far things haven’t turned out that great. I am personally not that surprised. I didn’t understand the hype preseason. 

The one sure thing in the rotation was Felix Hernandez. And what do you know? He has been awesome. He continues to decimate AL batters and keep the M’s in every game he pitches. He sets the bar so high it makes it hard for other pitchers to follow. M’s fans rightfully appreciate a great player.

Iwakuma and Happ have both been surprises, but for different reasons. They have basically flipped spots based on performance. Iwakuma has been much worse than expected. He is supposed to be a legit number two starter, instead he has struggled to get out of the fourth inning. Happ looked like just another arm. Someone to eat up innings every fifth day. Instead he has provided the M’s with almost all of their good starts not belonging to The King. 

Looking back neither of these results should be that surprising. There was writing on the wall for both of these players. ‘Kuma had a 7.61 ERA in 23.66 IP during the month of September last year. He struggled to end the season and he hasn’t gotten it back. I hope that he figures it out, but I am not holding my breath. His struggles could have been predicted. 

J.A. Happ, the newcomer to the staff, was a high profile prospect in his youth. After struggling in Houston he landed in Toronto. As a flyball pitcher Happ was ill-suited for the home run friendly confines of the Rogers Centre. In 2014 his 39.5% flyball rate put him at the 17^th highest among all qualified starters in both leagues and that was the second lowest flyball rate of his career. Happ is a flyball pitcher and the exact kind of guy that Safeco Field helps succeed. His recent success isn’t as crazy as some people believe. 

The other two starter, Paxton and Walker, are essentially rookies. Combined they pitched 112 innings in 2014. That is less than half what Felix threw. The sample size on these guys was small. Expecting them to perform at All-Star levels was crazy. Rookie Pitchers struggle. It takes them a while to figure out the majors. I expected both to figure it out eventually, but in the meantime we are going to have to suffer through the learning curve. 

The sky high pre-season expectations for the M’s starting pitchers was unfounded. All four starters that aren’t named Hernandez had red flags. Three of the four struggling isn’t a surprise. This team’s pitching staff isn’t as star studded as the 2013 Tigers or the 2015 Nationals. They are just average and it is time for people to realize this.