On Monday night Matt Garza of the Tampa Bay Rays threw the fifth no-hitter of the 2010 MLB season. Two of those were perfect games, meaning not a single person reached base, no hits, walks, hit-by-pitches, dropped third strikes or errors. Another game this year, thrown by Armando Galarraga, was a one hitter with an asterisk. Galarraga had a perfect game through 8 2/3 innings, only to have the twenty-seventh batter reach on a terrible call by the umpire. You probably heard about it. So, let’s consider it six no-hitters so far this year. Six no hitters already this year and we are only about 2/3 of the way through the season.
This many no hitters in one season hasn’t happened since 1991. In that season there were seven no-hitters thrown. In the 19 season between 1991 and 2009 MLB averaged 2.05 no hitters per year. In both 2005 and 2000 nobody threw a no-hitter. So, why the sudden increase in pitching gems?
There have been lots of reasons suggested for the cause behind the year of the pitcher. Some have mused that it is a sign of the decline in steroid use among players. Others have argued that it is increased skill of the pitchers themselves. While still others feel it is a decrease in the quality of the batters. Another argument is that it is just a random fluctuation of luck and the nature order of things will be restored next year. Most likely, the increase in pitcher dominance seen this year is a combination of all these things. However, simply stating that the cause of this years pitching is a combination of things and leaving it at that is boring.
I think that the increase of strikeouts in the Major Leagues is playing a substantial part in the equation that results in better pitching. Since 1991 the K% in MLB has steadily climbed. In 1991 the K% in the Major Leagues was 15.2%. In all the seasons since then, this season has the highest strikeout rate of all. Major League batters are striking out 18.1% of the time.
A quick look at the top ten list for strikeouts in a season by a batter shows a similar trend, only two entries are from seasons before 2000. Both of these spots belong to Bobby Bonds who struck out 189 times in 1970 and 187 in 1969. Mark Reynolds, Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn take up two spots each, with Jack Cust and Jose Hernandez finishing off the list. The three repeat offenders, Reynold, Howard and Dunn, are all stars. This continued re-setting of the single season strikeout record helps show how the attitude about strikeouts has changed. Players, coaches and fans no longer think as poorly about K’s. They are a much more acceptable outcome.
This many no hitters in one season hasn’t happened since 1991. In that season there were seven no-hitters thrown. In the 19 season between 1991 and 2009 MLB averaged 2.05 no hitters per year. In both 2005 and 2000 nobody threw a no-hitter. So, why the sudden increase in pitching gems?
There have been lots of reasons suggested for the cause behind the year of the pitcher. Some have mused that it is a sign of the decline in steroid use among players. Others have argued that it is increased skill of the pitchers themselves. While still others feel it is a decrease in the quality of the batters. Another argument is that it is just a random fluctuation of luck and the nature order of things will be restored next year. Most likely, the increase in pitcher dominance seen this year is a combination of all these things. However, simply stating that the cause of this years pitching is a combination of things and leaving it at that is boring.
I think that the increase of strikeouts in the Major Leagues is playing a substantial part in the equation that results in better pitching. Since 1991 the K% in MLB has steadily climbed. In 1991 the K% in the Major Leagues was 15.2%. In all the seasons since then, this season has the highest strikeout rate of all. Major League batters are striking out 18.1% of the time.
A quick look at the top ten list for strikeouts in a season by a batter shows a similar trend, only two entries are from seasons before 2000. Both of these spots belong to Bobby Bonds who struck out 189 times in 1970 and 187 in 1969. Mark Reynolds, Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn take up two spots each, with Jack Cust and Jose Hernandez finishing off the list. The three repeat offenders, Reynold, Howard and Dunn, are all stars. This continued re-setting of the single season strikeout record helps show how the attitude about strikeouts has changed. Players, coaches and fans no longer think as poorly about K’s. They are a much more acceptable outcome.
With this increase in K% also comes an increase in great pitching performances. I cannot unequivocally prove this, but I can present my argument for why it should be considered a contributing factor. When a batter strikeouts (and the catcher catches the ball, unlike shitty Rob Johnson) there is no chance of him reaching base. If instead of striking out the player have the potential to drop for hits or for the fielder to commit an error. Hence, when players are striking out more, they are making contact less, which means there is less opportunity for them to reach base. If batters have less opportunity to reach base, pitchers have more opportunity to throw a no-hitter.
If the trend of strikeout rates increasing continues, expect great pitching performances, like Matt Garza’s, to increase as well. Unless of course it is all just random luck.
All stats current as of 7/27/10
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