Monday, September 20, 2010

The Perils of Expectation

Sports Illustrated is prone to some odd predictions. Be it choosing the Steelers to win the Super Bowl this year or the Red Sox to win the World Series every season since 1952, Sports Illustrated seems to frequently throw common knowledge to the wind in an attempt to win over readers. Unfortunately, this hurts those teams greatly.

Nothing creates expectations for a team like national news media saying they'll be great. At the end of last season, most of the fans I knew hoped the Mariners would make some smart moves and have a good chance at making a run for the playoffs this season. All of a sudden, SI chose the Mariners to run away with the West, cover stories started popping up all over and, before you know it, the fans were thinking about a World Series run.

Obviously, this is ridiculous. If you look back at the team, there was no chance they'd make a deep playoff run and, honestly, a division title was pushing the boundaries of sanity. There was absolutely no offense to be seen anywhere on the roster, and far too many players with serious question marks (Bradley's health/sanity, Bedard's health, Lopez's defense, Griffey's everything) to believe this team could roll the dice and win on everyone.

If the national media had recognized this, maybe this season wouldn't have quite as humongous of a negative feel. Yes, nobody likes this year, the Mariners are terrible. My point is that expectations run rampant and can ruin a season and, for guys like Don Wakamatsu, careers.

This brings us to the Seahawks and Huskies. Many saw the Seahawks as strong contenders for the division title, able to make a huge bounce back with Pete Carroll at the helm and a strong draft class incoming. Somehow, no one seems to have managed to look at the actual roster before making this pick. Matt Hasselbeck is about a hundred years old and has more aches and pains than my grandfather. Deion Branch and Mike "Out of Football for Two Years" Williams are our top receivers. Kelly Jennings is playing regularly. This is a team that should be setting its sites on a couples years from now, and the brain trust running the team understands this. However, fans don't seem to.

Similarly, people were amazed when the Huskies didn't blow out BYU in Utah. The Huskies haven't made a bowl in longer than I care to remember and still boast a defense consisting of one or two strong contributors and a bunch of young guys who can't do much of anything. There are problem spots all around. Yet everyone is already disappointed in this season, as if it is a failure because Jake Locker won't win the Heisman (another bit of ridiculous hype there) and the Huskies won't be going to the Rose Bowl.

Honestly, temper expectations. Regardless of what the national media thinks or what hope you may let sink in, don't ever try and assume any team will be contenders for a title. If you make the only positive outcome a title, than every season will be a failure, with the exception being 1979.

The Huskies best hope is to make a terrible bowl as a 6-6 team. The Seahawks may make 9-7 in a bad division. Husky hoops will probably finish 2nd or so in the Pac-10 and maybe push to the second round, barring some amazing play. The Washington sports scene is slowly rebuilding. Don't push too hard, no matter how long we've had to wait.

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